Wheat — Dec ’25 CBOT futures finished Thursday softer on balance after an early bounce faded; the attached reports do not include the official settlement prints. The last indicated levels into the afternoon showed Dec ’25 around $5.03/bu, up 4¼¢ on the day, with traders keying off a drier Southern Plains outlook next week versus heavier rain prospects in SRW areas. With the weekly U.S. export sales report suspended during the shutdown, price action tracked weather and relative spreads, leaving SRW modestly firmer intraday while HRW and spring wheat lagged.

Corn — Dec ’25 CBOT firmed through Thursday, supported by steadier cash indications and fresh demand flashes in Asia. While the source pack does not publish the final settle, the latest quoted level into the afternoon showed $4.22/bu, up 5¼¢, as EIA data confirmed a slight uptick in ethanol output week-on-week alongside a small draw in stocks. Private tenders in South Korea and a U.S. sale to Taiwan added a constructive tone even as weekly U.S. export sales remain on hold.

Soybeans — Nov ’25 CBOT edged higher on Thursday, underpinned by a blowout NOPA September crush that beat expectations, offsetting the drag from China’s continued pause on U.S. purchases. The documents don’t list the settlement, but the last intraday mark showed $10.12½/bu, up 6¢, with firm meal and slightly lower m/m soyoil stocks among NOPA members lending support even as elevated Brazil premiums kept Chinese demand sidelined.

Global market drivers

The global grain market is moving on a broader set of cross-currents than just U.S.–China trade tensions. Demand signals from Asia remain front and center: South Korea’s private corn tenders and Taiwan’s confirmed purchases highlighted the region’s steady appetite even during a U.S. export data blackout. Meanwhile, India’s oilmeal exports surged in September, led by rapeseed meal, reaffirming the country’s role as a supplier into Southeast Asia and the Middle East. These flows add resilience to regional supply chains that are balancing exposure to Black Sea volatility.

On the supply side, Brazil’s forward momentum is striking. With soybean planting advancing at one of the fastest paces on record and safrinha corn seeding ahead of schedule, projections for both crops remain historically large. Moisture availability has generally improved compared to last year, and while La Niña introduces risks of southern dryness, agronomists still call the overall outlook robust. This bolsters Brazil’s position as the anchor for global soybean and corn supply into 2026.

In the Black Sea, dynamics are more nuanced. Ukraine’s winter sowing campaign is running behind last year, with sharply reduced wheat and barley area, raising questions over 2026 grain availability. Russia, in contrast, has maintained a steady export presence, with renewed wheat flows into Indonesia reinforcing its competitiveness in Asia even as overall seaborne volumes trail last season. The diverging trajectories between Ukraine and Russia will continue to shape price sentiment as winter approaches.

Europe’s balance sheet has quietly tightened. FranceAgriMer’s upgrades to wheat and corn exports, paired with reduced ending stock estimates, enhance EU competitiveness in nearby tenders and help offset slower-than-expected soft-wheat shipments to date. Combined with barley’s year-on-year export strength, the revised French outlook underscores that the EU remains a credible supplier into North Africa and the Middle East, even against Black Sea competition.

Macro commodity flows also reflect shifting energy and biofuel signals. U.S. ethanol production is showing incremental weekly growth, with inventories dipping modestly—lending underlying support to corn demand. At the same time, vegetable oils markets are recalibrating. Malaysia’s decision to maintain the maximum crude palm oil export tax at 10% through November, alongside Russia’s sunflower harvest cuts, is injecting volatility into global veg-oils. The contrast between tight sunflower supplies and ample soybean outlooks highlights the complex cross-substitutions buyers are navigating.

Weather remains a constant backdrop. North America’s extended warmth has favored harvest pace, delaying frost and reducing immediate supply risks. Australia’s wetter late-October outlook should aid wheat and rapeseed, while Argentina’s persistent soil moisture in the north provides support for early crop establishment. In Brazil, the seasonal rains are gradually filling in, providing a timely boost for soybeans and corn, though pockets of dryness remain under close watch.

Regional supply from secondary producers is adding texture. Kazakhstan’s stronger-than-expected harvest at nearly 26 MMT improves flows into Central Asia and Iran, creating alternative supply corridors amid uncertainty in the Black Sea. These routes may gain prominence if Ukrainian or Russian volumes face renewed logistical disruptions.

Market internals showed rotation rather than conviction. Soybeans and products firmed modestly overnight, wheat softened, and corn held flat. Open interest adjustments—light liquidation in corn and soybeans, small gains in SRW and HRW—suggest traders are paring risk ahead of the resumption of delayed U.S. government data. This recalibration underlines that while fundamentals are steady, participants remain cautious in positioning given the broader geopolitical and weather-driven uncertainties.