Chicago finished Thursday mixed-to-lower, with wheat holding flat, corn easing slightly, and soybeans leading the downside as the market digested disappointing weekly export sales, fresh Census shipment data, and a steady flow of South America and veg-oil policy headlines.

Weekly U.S. export sales were the primary late-session governor on upside momentum. USDA showed 2025/26 wheat sales at 118,701 MT, below expectations, which kept wheat from extending earlier firmness even as week-on-week sales improved. The message for wheat was that competitiveness remains necessary but not sufficient when new sales are light.

Corn had the sharpest “demand reality check” from the export-sales table. USDA reported just 377,598 MT of 2025/26 corn sold for the week ending Jan. 1, a marketing-year low and below trade expectations, which helped keep corn pinned despite otherwise constructive longer-run shipment and demand narratives. With the market heading into key USDA reports, poor weekly sales increased sensitivity to any bearish balance-sheet surprise.

Soybeans also leaned lower on the export-sales details even with new China-linked business in the mix. USDA tallied 877,914 MT of 2025/26 soybeans sold, on the lower side of expectations, and the market treated that as confirmation that demand is present but still price- and timing-sensitive. A separate private sale headline of 132,000 MT to China offered support, but it did not fully offset the softer weekly sales tone into the close.

Census shipment data added another layer to the demand conversation and helped explain why price reaction was not uniform across crops. October corn exports were reported at 6.564 MMT, still historically large even with a month-on-month pullback, while wheat October shipments were 1.96 MMT, a six-year high but sharply lower than the prior month. For soybeans, October exports were reported at 5.264 MMT and described as the lowest since 2008/09, while soybean meal exports were highlighted as strong—inputs that kept the complex spread-driven (meal steadier than beans) rather than uniformly bullish.

South America weather remained important, but Thursday’s emphasis shifted toward Argentina moisture relief rather than Brazil stress. Heavy rainfall was forecast across much of Argentina’s agricultural belt, with major exchanges pointing to benefits for corn and soy during key development stages, which tends to reduce immediate downside-yield risk pricing. That is typically a headwind for corn and soy rallies when demand data is also underwhelming.

Veg-oil policy headlines stayed active without producing a clean one-way push for grains. Indonesia’s consideration of raising the palm oil export levy to fund higher biodiesel blending introduced supportive “policy premium” potential for palm that can spill into soyoil on relative value, but the broader complex still had to reconcile supply and production outlooks. In the Chicago products, soymeal was weaker on the day while soyoil was firmer, reinforcing that spreads, not outright direction, were doing much of the work.

Ethanol remained a key macro-to-corn transmission channel, and the latest data kept the tone balanced rather than supportive. The EIA update cited ethanol production down week-on-week, while ethanol stocks rose to the high end of expectations—an input that can temper corn’s upside if blending demand is not accelerating. A longer-horizon counterpoint came from Poet’s plan to double capacity at an Indiana plant, which reinforces structural corn demand even if it does not change near-term pricing.

Finally, positioning and report risk kept traders headline-sensitive into the close. Open interest shifts showed participation rebuilding in wheat and soy products, which can amplify reactions as USDA’s next-week report slate approaches, including WASDE expectations for stocks adjustments across wheat, corn, and soybeans. With weekly sales underwhelming, the bar for bullish follow-through likely shifts back to weather surprises or stronger export flow confirmations.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.18, unchanged. Wheat held steady as disappointing weekly export sales limited upside, while attention shifted to Monday’s WASDE expectations and broader competitiveness signals.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.46, down 3/4 cent. A marketing-year-low weekly corn sales figure weighed on the close, with ethanol-stock build adding a second demand restraint even as longer-run shipment context remains constructive.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.47, down 5 3/4 cents. Beans slipped as export sales landed on the low end of expectations, and even a separate 132,000 MT sale to China could not offset the softer demand print, while product spreads stayed mixed (meal weaker, oil firmer).