Wheat — Dec ’25 CBOT $4.95¾/bu at the start of Thursday’s trade. After Wednesday’s lower close at $4.98¾, wheat opened softer as the market absorbed a drier Southern Plains outlook next week and heavier rain prospects in SRW areas. With weekly U.S. export sales paused by the shutdown, traders leaned on tone and weather: SRW was modestly weaker, HRW fractionally lower and HRS slightly softer, mirroring the overnight bias.
Corn — Dec ’25 CBOT $4.16¾/bu at the start of Thursday’s trade. Corn opened flat to Wednesday’s settlement after a firmer midweek session that featured short-covering and steadier cash indications. Attention stayed on today’s ethanol update (production seen higher w/w and stocks a touch lower) and on recent Asian demand flashes, including South Korean private tenders totaling 269,000 MT, while U.S. export sales remain on hold.
Soybeans — Nov ’25 CBOT $10.10/bu at the start of Thursday’s trade. Beans began a few cents higher as a blowout NOPA September crush offset export uncertainty stemming from China’s pause on U.S. purchases. With soyoil stocks among NOPA members slipping slightly m/m (but still above last year) and meal firm, the complex found early support even as Brazil premiums kept Chinese buyers sidelined.
Global market drivers
China’s near-term soybean coverage remains light. Traders report Beijing has largely filled needs through November—leaning hard on Argentina—but still needs roughly 8–9 MMT for Dec–Jan. High Brazilian premiums are discouraging additional purchases and may force state reserve releases if the U.S.–China trade impasse persists. The stand-off continues to shut out U.S. beans despite improving crush economics stateside.
U.S. processing power surprised to the upside. NOPA members crushed 197.863 million bushels in September, the fourth-highest month on record and well above expectations, with the second-strongest daily rate ever. Soyoil stocks dipped marginally m/m to 1.243 bln lbs yet sat 16.6% above last year; rapid post-maintenance restarts and a fast-advancing harvest underpinned throughput.
Macro commodity tone was mixed but mildly supportive for corn. Analysts expect ethanol production to tick higher w/w with inventories slightly lower; national average cash corn firmed mid-week. On the demand side, Taiwan bought 65,000 MT of U.S. corn and South Korean buyers reportedly booked 269,000 MT in private tenders, cushioning the impact of the data blackout on weekly U.S. export sales.
Brazil’s forward corn story is getting bigger. Preliminary 2025/26 production estimates cluster near 138.4 MMT, with safrinha area projected higher on resilient domestic corn-ethanol demand and solid export prospects. Moisture profiles are generally healthier than last year and planting is ahead of pace, while La Niña signals point to above-average rainfall in the north and possible southern dryness—risks that, for now, look manageable.
Europe’s balance sheet edged friendlier for exports. FranceAgriMer lifted its 2025/26 outlooks: soft-wheat exports near 15 MMT (+44% y/y), corn exports to 5.1 MMT, with stock projections reduced for wheat, barley, and corn. The upgrades tighten French endings and reinforce EU competitiveness into nearby tenders, even as Black Sea flows remain a pricing force.
Russia’s flow signals were two-track. Domestically, the harvest reached ~132 MMT of grain with a 135 MMT target kept intact (including 90 MMT wheat), and officials touted 50 MMT export potential in 2025/26. Externally, wheat shipments to Indonesia resumed after an accreditation extension, with 52,000 MT moving in October—evidence of active Asian demand despite this season’s softer overall seaborne volumes.
Weather stayed a macro lever for trade flow expectations. North American warmth continues to delay frost and favor harvest progress, while a wetter Australia into late October should aid wheat/rapeseed. Argentina sees wet spells north with high soil moisture; central Brazil turns seasonally showery as the wet season fills in; Southeast Asia rains favor palm; and teleconnections point to a negative TAD into winter, hinting at milder risks over Europe and parts of Asia.
Oilseed by-products and regional trade add texture. India’s oilmeal exports climbed in September to 299,252 tons (rapeseed meal dominant, soymeal modestly higher), underscoring steady demand into Asia. Kazakhstan’s harvest reached 25.9 MMT by Oct 16, surpassing earlier expectations and shoring up Central Asian supply routes to Iran and Afghanistan as regional buyers balance Black Sea exposures.
Market internals flagged position tweaks but no sea-change. Overnight, soybeans and products nudged higher while wheat softened and corn was steady; registrations rose in soyoil, and open interest moves showed light rotation—SRW +141, HRW +615, corn −6,238, soybeans −10,590—consistent with short-term risk-paring ahead of key U.S. data resumption.