Wheat

Chicago soft red winter wheat (CBOT SRW) for Dec ’25 opened Thursday around $5.11¾/bu, approximately +4½¢ from Wednesday evening ($5.07¼/bu), after a cautiously positive overnight tone. The complex remains sensitive to slower EU export pace, mixed Black Sea signals, and reduced Australian prospects during October’s sowing windows.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn began the day steady to slightly firmer around $4.22½/bu, following Wednesday’s close at $4.22/bu. The market is watching the rebound in U.S. ethanol output, harvest progress against river logistics, and competitive pressure from Brazilian exports, while open interest continues to climb.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans started the session near $10.24/bu, about –5½¢ versus Wednesday evening ($10.29½/bu), as a correction followed the prior strong rally in soyoil and firmer palm oil prices. Focus remains on the early onset of Brazil’s rainy season and its impact on spreads and the crush chain.

Global Market Drivers

U.S. official weekly export sales reports remain temporarily suspended due to the government shutdown, increasing reliance on private surveys and cash indicators. Meanwhile, speculative positioning has picked up: on Tuesday, open interest rose significantly in wheat, corn, and soybeans, with steady board registrations signaling controlled risk appetite ahead of key weather fronts and river logistics updates.

Canada provided a positive logistics signal for global food chains: Canadian National Railway reported a record September grain haul of 2.91 MMT from Western Canada, +80,000 t above the previous monthly high. Improved capacity through the western corridor strengthens export flows to the Pacific and Atlantic, especially during tight shipping windows.

Argentina sharply raised its 2025/26 wheat forecast to 23 MMT from 20 MMT thanks to strong yields and soil moisture — a level that would match the record set four seasons ago. Corn estimates were maintained at 61 MMT (record) and soybeans at 47 MMT, with corn planting 28% complete and soybeans set to start in the second half of October. The combination of stronger wheat and record corn bolsters the Río de la Plata region’s export competitiveness by year-end.

In Russia, the wheat export duty was cut ~20% to 493.4 RUB/t for Oct 8–14, with corn duties also lowered and barley remaining at zero. The reduction, part of the “damper” mechanism, coincides with ~130 MMT already harvested and an official outlook of 135 MMT, sustaining aggressive FOB supply and pressure on U.S./EU offers. In the broader region, Kazakhstan reported 22.7 MMT harvested from 89.3% of acreage, further bolstering Central Eurasian supply.

South America reinforced its role as an export engine. According to ANEC, Brazil targets October exports of 7.12 MMT soybeans (vs 4.44 MMT a year ago) and 6.0 MMT corn, with soybean meal exports at 1.92 MMT. At the same time, consultancy estimates see biodiesel demand rising ~6.3% to 10.5 bln liters in 2026, implying soybean oil use up ~6.3% to 8.4 MMT under a continued B15 mandate — medium-term support for the veg-oil chain.

Indonesia accelerated toward B50: the fourth test round is nearly complete, with rollout planned for H2 2026. Expected declines in diesel imports and higher domestic palm fuel use tighten the regional veg-oil balance, indirectly supporting soyoil prices. Additionally, Malaysian palm oil futures rose +48 ringgit in overnight trade, adding bullish momentum to the complex.

China’s corn balance remains mixed. CASDE flagged heavy rains in key provinces such as Henan, hindering autumn harvests and raising risks of waterlogging and lodging, though Northeastern China remains favorable. Official 2025/26 production forecasts were unchanged, but weather risks for quality in some belts remain central to Asia’s import/export flows.

Weather and logistics continue to dictate short-term tone. In North America, warm weather supports harvest progress, while weekend rain and snow fronts could slow activity in the Northern Plains. In the Midwest, Ohio Valley rains improved soil moisture and lifted Mississippi River levels, but forecasts suggest only temporary barge capacity relief. In Brazil, models consistently show central rainfall igniting the wet season from Friday onward, while Argentina expects another front with broad precipitation and good soil reserves — a setup directly affecting basis, spreads, and origin choices for October loadings.

The U.S. energy backdrop remains constructive for corn grind: DOE/EIA reported 1.071m b/d ethanol output (+76k b/d weekly) and 22.72m bbl stocks alongside higher exports (138k b/d). Combined with warm, dry Belt weather, this underpins expectations for strong harvest progress and steady domestic flow into processing.