Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for Dec ’25 started Tuesday a touch firmer, trading roughly three-quarters of a cent above Monday’s close near $5.13½/bu as early bids followed a steady overnight board and light short-covering. Monday’s U.S. export inspections slipped to 505k t, but fresh demand interest on the government-to-government front and steady registration totals kept risk balanced into the open, with winter-wheat contracts slightly outperforming spring.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn began the session essentially unchanged around $4.21¾/bu, with traders keying off firm Monday closes and robust weekly inspections near 1.60 MMT. The tape stays sensitive to harvest pace and river logistics while Brazil’s export competitiveness and center-south planting progress frame near-term supply.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans opened Tuesday about 3¼¢ higher near $10.21/bu, tracking stronger soyoil amid supportive palm-oil cues, even as U.S. inspections, though improved w/w, remain well below last year in the absence of Chinese purchases. Early trade continues to watch Brazil’s record-fast planting for signals on forward crush and spreads.

Today’s Global Market Drivers

Australia’s bumper-crop narrative is losing some shine as a September dry spell in Victoria and South Australia trims yield potential; soil moisture has worsened and, with warming temperatures, analysts warn of cuts to production estimates of 0.5–1.0 MMT across the two states if dryness persists. Any downgrade tightens the global wheat matrix at the margin and could firm nearby FOBs if domestic users pull more local supply.

Flow data and survey cues guide U.S. positioning in a data-light backdrop. Weekly inspections printed 1.60 MMT corn, 768k t soybeans, and 505k t wheat; a Bloomberg survey pegs U.S. harvest near 31% for corn and 38% for soy, but official Crop Progress remains suspended during the federal shutdown—keeping traders reliant on private models and basis signals.

Brazil’s fieldwork is sprinting. AgRural reports soy planting 9% complete (second-fastest on record) and center-south summer corn 40% planted, the quickest since 2012/13. Brazil’s September exports add to the competitive backdrop, with soybeans up 20% y/y and corn shipments at 7.56 MMT, reinforcing pressure on U.S. offers into Q4 even as U.S. futures hold a firm bias.

Biofuel policy is a two-continent swing factor. Argentina raised minimum prices for bioethanol and biodiesel blends—supportive for domestic crush and feedstock demand—while Brazil signaled the B16 diesel blend may slip beyond the March 2026 target, a potential near-term headwind to soyoil pull. In parallel, Indonesia cleared lab tests for B50 and moves toward road trials ahead of a 2026 mandate, a medium-term boost for palm-oil demand.

India’s acreage expansion underscores South Asia’s grain cushion. Monsoon-sown rice area is up 5.9% y/y to 44.16 Mha, and corn area up 10.7%, keeping regional feed and food balances more comfortable even as export restrictions stay in place—indirectly shaping substitution flows into wheat and corn across nearby importers.

The Black Sea narrative is mixed but pivotal. Ukraine’s winter sowing lags last year by 5% with winter-wheat area 12% lower y/y to date, yet Kyiv approved the documentation to allow duty-free exports of rapeseed and soybeans from producers’ own output—unclogging flows that had been halted by confusion over a new levy. The net effect recalibrates near-term oilseed and meal availability while winter-grain establishment remains weather-dependent.

Russia’s export pulse is colliding with weak world prices. Officials flagged that low global grain prices have slowed shipments despite a good crop; wheat exports fell ~30% y/y in August and ~10% in September. Even with 128 MMT already harvested and a 135 MMT outlook intact, depressed benchmarks threaten revenue targets—an undercurrent for pricing strategy and any policy fine-tuning ahead.

Fresh demand signals are emerging in Asia. Bangladesh approved a purchase of 220,000 t of U.S. wheat at $308/t under a government-to-government arrangement, an incremental positive for U.S. export sheets as Gulf lineups juggle barge constraints and basis recalibration. Such tenders, alongside steady registrations, help anchor the wheat board when broader macro is thin.