Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for Dec ’25 began Monday’s session near $5.17¼/bu, implying about +2¢ from Friday’s $5.15¼ close as early trade nudged higher. The complex carries over mixed tone from last week, with HRW marginally firmer and HRS still lagging, while winter-wheat seeding windows in the Central/Northern Plains face spotty showers that could stagger progress. Export interest stays in the frame after fresh tenders and steady registrations, even as open interest shifts point to light short-covering into the week’s start.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn opened around $4.19¼–$4.19½/bu, roughly ¼¢ above Friday’s $4.19 close amid a quiet, firmer bias. Harvest continues to guide intraday flows as Midwest/Delta weather toggles between brief shower interruptions and mostly supportive windows, while Brazil’s first-crop planting pace and Argentina’s steady advance anchor the export-competition narrative. With government reporting curtailed, traders lean on private cash indices and daily lineups to calibrate nearby demand.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans started Monday near $10.20¼/bu, about +2¼¢ versus Friday’s $10.18 settle as the complex tracks firmer soyoil and brisk Brazilian planting headlines. Early U.S. harvest pulse, coupled with China’s holiday-thinned liquidity, keeps futures sensitive to basis moves; meanwhile, the crop-insurance harvest-price discovery continues with the early-October average hovering near recent settles.

Ukraine’s harvest shortfall is today’s marquee fundamental. Cumulative grain and oilseed output is running 16% below last year, with sunflower at an eight-year low on sharply weaker yields—tightening sunflower-oil exports from a key global supplier and lending support to the broader veg-oil complex. Wheat, barley and peas are further along, but corn is lagging, underscoring ongoing logistics and weather constraints.

Brazil’s planting pace is setting records and stirring debate about early supply. National soybean seeding reached 9.15% of intended area versus 2.31% a year ago, and Mato Grosso hit 15.03%—well above the historical 6.10% average for the date. The south benefits from timely rain, but central Brazil’s dryness raises germination risk and potential replant costs if mid-October showers disappoint, a swing factor for today’s meal/oil spreads.

Russia keeps the export tap competitive. Harvest has reached 128 MMT of grain with a 135 MMT full-season outlook intact, and Moscow cut the wheat export duty ~20% to 493.4 rubles/t (corn duty also lowered; barley remains zero) for the Oct 8–14 window. The move, tied to the floating “damper” mechanism, leans bearish on FOBs and could pressure U.S./EU offers if Black Sea shipments accelerate.

Vegetable oils add a supportive undertone. A Reuters poll points to Malaysia’s September palm stocks falling ~2.5% to 2.15 MMT, with exports up ~7.7% to 1.43 MMT and output down ~3.3%—the first stock draw in seven months. Firmer palm tightens the cross-oil arbitrage and underpins soyoil, cushioning beans against demand worries during China’s holiday closure.

U.S.–China trade friction is a live headwind for beans. China has not booked U.S. soybeans from the autumn harvest, pushing U.S. sellers toward smaller markets like Nigeria, Vietnam and Bangladesh that cannot replace China’s scale. With basis soft in some corridors and policy chatter ongoing, any shift in Chinese buying would quickly reverberate through Gulf spreads and nearby futures today.

Rice policy tightens the feed-grain backdrop. The Philippines extended its rice import ban to end-2025, with only a one-month window planned in January before re-imposition through April. Prolonged curbs keep Asian rice prices supported and can redirect incremental demand into wheat and, to a lesser degree, corn—an under-the-radar prop for grains in today’s session.

Tape-reading for the open shows a mild risk-on bias. Overnight, SRW +1, HRW +½, HRS −¼; corn +½; beans +2; with China shut for holidays, registrations steady, and last reported open-interest changes showing SRW down, HRW up, corn down, beans down, soyoil up. Macro-light conditions and the lack of fresh U.S. reports leave price discovery to weather maps, private flows and cash basis cues.

Weather is the session’s swing variable. U.S. Midwest/Plains toggle between brief fronts and otherwise supportive harvest windows; Delta river levels along the Mississippi remain a logistical watch-item; Europe/Black Sea look showery—welcome for establishment in Ukraine but still too dry in SW Russia; Australia stays in a drier stretch that threatens wheat/canola in reproduction; Brazil splits wet south/dry center; Argentina trends drier after weekend rains, easing wheat water-logging but keeping La Niña risks in view.

CFTC/Crop Progress pauses linger around the tape. With parts of U.S. government reporting suspended, traders elevate private indicators: cmdtyView cash prints show national corn and bean averages edging lower late last week; U.S. harvest progress remains broadly constructive outside local rain bands; and Brazil/Argentina planting trackers are driving inter-crop spread adjustments into today’s trade.