Wheat

Wheat finished Wednesday mixed but off early lows as Chicago soft red clawed into the green. December ’25 CBOT settled at $5.09¼/bu, up 1¼¢ on the day, while Kansas City hard red slipped 2–3¢ and Minneapolis spring lost 5–6¢. A drier seven-day U.S. forecast favors fieldwork and winter-wheat establishment, though showers late week in parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas could briefly slow planting. Export flow signals stayed active into North Africa and Asia, with Taiwan tendering 80,550 t of U.S. wheat and Ukraine projecting a 9% rise in winter-wheat acres for 2025/26, even as weekly U.S. Export Sales reporting faces delay amid government shutdown risk.

Corn

Corn firmed into the bell after starting soft, finishing Wednesday with fractional gains. December ’25 closed at $4.16½/bu, up 1¢, as EIA data showed ethanol output easing to 995k bpd and stocks drawing to 22.764 million bbl—an about-face from last week’s surprise build—while traders penciled 1.2–2.2 MMT in weekly sales before learning USDA reports could be delayed or suspended. A private crop tour trimmed yield to 185.9 bpa and production to 16.737 bbu; basis and barge logistics remain in focus as Mississippi/Delta water levels slip again into October.

Soybeans

Soybeans led late, shrugging off early pressure to close higher on headline-driven buying. November ’25 ended at $10.13/bu, up 11¼¢, with soyoil rallying 73–93 pts and soymeal mixed. The Fats & Oils report was postponed, but analysts estimate an August crush near 196.4 mbu; July use of soyoil in bio/renewable diesel rose to 1.108 billion lbs, the highest in eight months. Traders also weighed chatter about high-level U.S.–China discussions later this month, even as broader policy noise and a shutdown threat kept near-term data visibility cloudy.

Global market drivers shaping yesterday’s trade

Markets absorbed the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, which could halt key USDA reports just as traders rely on harvest and stock updates to steer positions. About 42,000 USDA employees would face furloughs under contingency plans, putting routine data collection and farm program support on hold while only critical food and safety services continue.

Weather patterns also shaped sentiment across producing regions. The U.S. Midwest and Delta remained mostly warm and dry, favoring harvest but exposing river systems to renewed low-water constraints that threaten grain barge traffic. In Brazil, early soybean planting advanced quickly, yet dryness across central states cast doubt on germination, while southern areas benefited from more regular rainfall. Argentina, by contrast, held strong soil moisture levels with more rain expected, supporting a timely crop start.

South American export flows continued at pace. Brazil was projected to ship about 7.13 million tons of soybeans and 7.27 million tons of corn in September, with CEPEA reporting softer domestic corn values as users leaned on stocks. Soy oil margins surged on resilient biodiesel demand, underscoring the strong pull from energy-linked demand.

Trade politics added further complexity. U.S. lawmakers signaled China is unlikely to resume purchases of American soybeans in the near term, reinforcing farmer frustration as South America steps in. Argentina’s government temporarily suspended grain export taxes, triggering $7 billion in fast bookings—mostly soy to China—undercutting U.S. exporters mid-harvest. This comes ahead of President Trump’s scheduled October 14 meeting with Argentine President Milei in Washington, which could also reshape financial and trade alignments.

In Asia, USDA attachés in Beijing pegged China’s 2025/26 corn imports at just 7 million tons, a sharp fall from prior years, as the country prioritizes domestic production. Wheat imports, however, were projected higher at 6 million tons to meet feed demand, reflecting a shifting balance of grain needs.

Elsewhere, supply adjustments continued to surface. The EU cut its corn outlook to 56.5 million tons due to drought in Southeastern Europe, while Canada’s rapeseed harvest was upgraded to 19.1 million tons amid favorable fieldwork and satellite readings. Russia’s wheat production estimate stayed at 84.7 million tons, though analysts cautioned that persistently dry conditions in the South could challenge soil moisture for upcoming winter plantings.

Vegetable oil markets remained firm. Malaysia’s September palm oil exports rose nearly 10% month-on-month, while Indonesia’s January–August exports jumped 13.5% year-on-year, keeping soyoil–palm oil spreads in focus. Strong palm flows reinforced a tight global veg-oil outlook into late 2025.

Finally, geopolitical signals also weighed in. Russia lowered its wheat export duty to 617.7 rubles/ton from October 1, easing some pressure on Black Sea flows, even as Ukraine pressed forward with harvest and eyed expanded winter wheat acreage. With global buyers closely tracking these moves, Black Sea competition remains a decisive factor in export pricing.