Wheat

Wheat slumped after USDA’s reports surprised the trade. December ’25 CBOT settled at $5.08/bu, down 11½¢, as the Small Grains Summary lifted all-wheat production to 1.984 bbu and September 1 wheat stocks to 2.12 bbu—both above expectations. Winter wheat output was pegged at 1.402 bbu (HRW 804, SRW 353, white 244), while spring totaled 497 mbu with durum at 86 mbu. The heavier supply backdrop overwhelmed otherwise steady tender interest and kept Chicago on the defensive into the close.

Corn

Corn also finished lower as the quarterly Grain Stocks print landed well above the street. December ’25 closed at $4.15½/bu, down 6¢, after USDA tallied September 1 corn stocks at 1.532 bbu versus ~1.336 bbu expected. Harvest reached 18% with conditions steady at 66% good/excellent, while private export demand remained present even as the national cash index eased. The larger-than-expected inventory and only minor prior-quarter revisions kept rallies capped despite resilient inspections.

Soybeans

Soybeans couldn’t hold early strength and faded with the complex. November ’25 settled at $10.01¾/bu, down 8¾¢, even as soybean stocks of 316 mbu came in tighter than the trade’s 325 mbu guess. NASS nudged 2024/25 production up 8 mbu to 4.374 bbu; harvest reached 19% and conditions improved to 62% good/excellent. Product weakness and ongoing competition from South America weighed into the bell.

Global market drivers

USDA’s “Stocks & Summary” reset the board. All-wheat production and September 1 wheat stocks exceeded expectations, corn stocks printed a couple hundred million bushels above consensus, and soybean stocks were modestly tighter than feared. The mix reinforced a bearish-to-mixed tone across grains and the soy complex, pivoting price action from macro chatter to fresh fundamentals.

Europe and Poland added supply weight. The European Commission raised EU soft-wheat output to ~132.6 MMT, while Poland’s statistical office lifted 2025 cereals, including wheat to 13.4 MMT and total grains to 37.1 MMT. Those upgrades, layered on competitive Black Sea offers, help explain why Chicago rallies struggled to stick into quarter-end.

Black Sea currents stayed pivotal. Ukraine reported ~30.4 MMT of grains harvested from 63% of area, Russia eyed fresh access for winter wheat and barley into China, and a federal agricultural emergency was declared in Rostov after drought/frost damaged ~1M ha—an internal reshuffle that could alter quality logistics even if export math remains strong.

China’s demand map kept tilting south. USDA’s Beijing post held 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 MMT—below the official WASDE—citing restrained crush growth and a continued tilt to Brazilian/Argentine origin. Separate domestic signals showed a still-large sow herd (~40.38M), implying steady but unspectacular meal pull near-term.

Brazil sprinted through early fieldwork and kept export lanes humming. AgRural pegged soybean planting at 3.2% and Center-South first-crop corn at 32%, while shippers pointed September bean exports toward ~7.1–7.2 MMT. CEPEA flagged softer spot corn in several regions as users lean on stocks, and soybean-oil’s share of crush margins hit a record on resilient biodiesel demand.

Veg-oil balances tightened into late 2025/early 2026. Indonesia lifted the CPO reference price for October, keeping export tax/levy in place, and signaled 2025 palm exports could rise toward 30 MMT on stronger Indian demand. Malaysia’s September exports rose ~7% m/m as futures hovered in the mid-4,300s ringgit—momentum that keeps soyoil-palm linkages firm.

Weather carved uneven paths across key basins. The U.S. Northern Plains and much of the Midwest stayed warm/dry into Friday—harvest-friendly but reviving low-water risks in the Delta as river stages slip again into October. Southern Brazil held scattered showers while central Brazil trended drier mid-week; India closed its strongest monsoon since 2020, and heavy rains targeted China’s North China Plain ahead of a cooler push.

Flows and outlets shifted around the Mediterranean and corporate tape. France’s Intercéréales targeted ~3 MMT of milling wheat to Morocco—around 60% of Morocco’s needs—underpinning EU shipments even as overall bloc exports lag last year. In the corporate lane, Bunge slated an Oct. 15 update on its 2025 outlook post-Viterra integration, a bellwether for origination, crush, and logistics footprints into Q4.