Wheat
As Wednesday’s session got underway in Chicago, December ’25 CBOT wheat hovered around $5.34/bu, fractionally firmer after Tuesday’s 9-cent advance, with open interest showing modest short-covering and U.S. spring wheat 94% harvested versus a 92% average. Early tone was supported by a softer dollar and steady global tender interest, even as EU shipment tallies lag last year.
Corn
December ’25 corn began the day near $4.29½/bu, edging higher after a 6¼-cent rebound into Tuesday’s close. U.S. harvest reached 7% (in line with average) but crop ratings slipped, while Brazil’s export pace for September was nudged up by ANEC, keeping attention on Black Sea weather and Mississippi River logistics as rains creep into the Midwest later this week.
Soybeans
November ’25 soybeans opened mid-week around $10.49¾/bu, a touch firmer after Tuesday’s 7-8 cent rise. U.S. harvest is 5% complete with conditions easing, while Brazil’s crushers and shippers continue to underpin global availability as Abiove lifts 2025 soymeal and soyoil output projections and ANEC raises September bean and meal export estimates.
The global picture
Australia put real money behind biofuels, pledging A$1.1 billion (~$735 m) over a decade to kick-start local sustainable fuels, a shift that could re-route canola and sorghum toward energy demand and tighten edible-oil and meal balances over time. GrainCorp welcomed the plan, highlighting that ~70% of Australian canola is currently exported unprocessed — value-add may increasingly stay onshore from 2029.
In the U.S., the EPA proposed reallocating waived biofuel quotas from Small Refinery Exemptions, floating 50% and 100% options (and seeking comments on 25–75% or none). Full reallocation would be a demand win for corn-based ethanol and soy feedstocks, as seen in biofuel-linked equities’ bounce, though refiners warn of higher costs. The comment window runs through Oct. 31.
Brazil’s oilseed complex keeps turning the dial up: Abiove raised 2025 soy crush to 58.5 MMT, meal to 45.1 MMT and oil to 11.7 MMT, with September exports guided higher by ANEC for soybeans, soymeal and corn. Coupled with corn-ethanol expansion and flexible-fuel car demand, Brazil’s biofuel and export engines remain pivotal to global balance sheets.
Black Sea policy and supply signals tightened the focus. Russia’s wheat export duty jumped 2.9× to 495.9 rubles/ton for Sept 17–23, while independent estimates nudged 2025/26 Russia wheat output to ~84.7 MMT on record Stavropol yields, and Kazakhstan held steady near 16.3 MMT amid harvest-delaying rains. Duties, big crops, and logistics will steer FOB competition into Q4.
Europe’s export flow remains subdued. EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 totaled about 3.78 MMT (-34% y/y), led by Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco; however, major data gaps — notably France’s — muddy the read-through. Barley exports are up y/y, while corn imports are down 43%, reframing intra-EU grain trade dynamics as harvest progresses.
Macro weather leans mixed for near-term logistics and quality. Warmth aids spring-crop harvests across U.S./Canada, but rains will disrupt parts of the northwest Corn Belt and slow early soybean cutting; the Delta stays dry with low Mississippi levels, while Brazil awaits a fuller onset of central-north wet season, and Argentina enjoys largely favorable moisture heading into planting.
Biofuel rhythm watchers get fresh inputs today: analysts see U.S. ethanol production slightly lower w/w with stocks roughly steady; in Brazil, trader Evolua projects ethanol output up 17% to 42 bn liters by 2027-28, with most growth from corn ethanol — a structural shift that entwines corn markets with fuel economics more tightly.
Domestic U.S. ag cross-currents round out the tape. Cattle on Feed placements are seen down ~8.5% y/y to the lowest August since 2015, potentially trimming feed demand at the margin, while wheat planting progress and tender activity (e.g., South Korea) and FranceAgriMer’s lower French wheat ending stocks reinforce a cautiously supportive backdrop for wheat spreads.