Wheat

Chicago SRW December ’25 rallied into the close on Tuesday, settling at $5.34/bu, up 9 cents. Short-covering and a softer dollar helped, while Crop Progress showed U.S. spring wheat 94% harvested (2 pts ahead of normal) and winter wheat 11% planted, just under the five-year pace. Export inspections stayed punchy at ~775k t—Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea led—leaving marketing-year loadings roughly 12% ahead of last year. Futures strength was broad-based, with KC HRW up 9–10¢ and Minneapolis spring wheat up 4–5¢ by the bell.

Corn

Corn firmed on “Turnaround Tuesday,” with December ’25 closing at $4.29½/bu, up 6¼¢. USDA’s mix of a yield trim (186.7 bpa) but higher acres still implies a hefty 16.814 bbu crop and 2.11 bbu carryout, yet national cash corn ticked up to $3.85¼ and inspections printed a solid 1.512 MMT (Mexico, Japan prominent). Progress was typical for mid-September—85% dented, 41% mature, 7% harvested—even as conditions eased to 67% G/E and the Brugler500 dipped to 372. Early field reports hint at some below-last-year yields; traders will watch if that’s an “early-cut” quirk or a broader theme as harvest expands.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans added 7¢ to finish $10.49¾/bu. The crush story stayed supportive: NOPA’s August crush hit 189.8 mbu, a record for the month, while end-month soyoil stocks slid to an eight-month low—a combo that kept product margins buoyant even as futures only inched higher. Crop Progress showed 41% dropping leaves and 5% harvested; conditions eased to 63% G/E. Cash beans hovered near $9.73½, and inspections accelerated to 804k t with Italy, Bangladesh, and Mexico active—evidence early-season flows are building despite historically light new-crop commitments.

Global drivers reshaping Tuesday’s tape

Asian millers pivoted toward U.S. wheat. Importers in Indonesia (~500k t), Bangladesh (~250k t), and Sri Lanka (~100k t) booked cargoes as competitive U.S. offers and Black Sea shipment delays shifted near-term buying. Recent deals pegged U.S. soft white at $270/t CFR and HRW at $275/t, dovetailing with USDA’s lift to U.S. 2025/26 wheat exports. The shift complements traditional Southeast Asian demand and underscores how price and punctuality can reroute flows quickly.

Record-but-targeted soy crush kept veg-oil sentiment firm. NOPA confirmed a record August crush at 189.810 mbu (above expectations) with soyoil stocks down 9.7% m/m to 1.245 bln lb—the lowest since December—tightening the oil balance even as processors cycled maintenance ahead of harvest. That product mix continued to lend relative support to soyoil versus meal.

Brazil signaled “more supply on the way.” AgRural reported soybean planting just underway (0.12% of area) with 48.6 M ha expected and a trend-based 176.7 MMT output, while Safras & Mercado projected first-crop corn at 25.47 MMT and total 2025/26 corn at 142.49 MMT. Early fieldwork in Paraná, Mato Grosso, and São Paulo faces patchy Center-West moisture, but improving rains in the 10-day outlook should help cadence.

Ukraine’s outlook stayed mixed by region and crop. MARS flagged well-below-average summer-crop yields in the east and south due to heat, with better performance in the north and west. Winter wheat and sunflower are seen below five-year yields, while corn and soybeans are forecast above average—an uneven profile that will matter for quality splits and export pacing into Q4.

France nudged grain balances. Paris lifted soft-wheat output to 33.3 MMT (+0.2 MMT m/m; +30% y/y from last year’s low) and raised rapeseed to 4.6 MMT, but corn was cut to 13.4 MMT on heat/drought—yields seen ~8% y/y lower. That combination supports EU wheat availability while tempering the bloc’s corn surplus potential.

Weather steered logistics as much as yields. Forecasts called for heavy precipitation across the U.S. Plains/western Midwest (five-day delays likely), warming across Europe, and a coming cool/wet shift in South America. The Mississippi remained a pinch point, with last week’s grain shipments slipping to 361k t as barge rates climbed—keeping basis risk elevated even as harvest quickens.

Policy and demand currents broadened beyond grains. The EPA floated reallocating 2023–24 SRE volumes into future RFS mandates (50% or 100% options; 45-day comment), while India’s edible-oil imports hit a one-year high (1.62 MMT) on festival stocking, skewing toward palm (~991k t, +15.8% m/m). Meanwhile, Canada–China talks over steep canola duties were described as “constructive,” and Brazil gained clearance to export beef tallow to Singapore, adding another biofuel-adjacent outlet to watch.

Left-field signals rounded out the macro picture. Tyson Foods said it will eliminate high-fructose corn syrup and several additives by year-end, reflecting consumer-policy crosscurrents; the USDA said it’s considering economic aid for farmers this fall amid trade frictions and heavy crops; and avian influenza was confirmed in a Nebraska dairy herd, a reminder that animal-health headlines can ripple through feed demand and logistics even if public health risk remains low.