Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 opened the week near $5.26/bu, firming a couple of cents from Friday’s $5.23½ close as the complex digested a slightly friendlier U.S. WASDE (exports +25 mbu; ending stocks 844 mbu) alongside bigger global carry driven by upward revisions in Russia, the EU, Canada, Ukraine, and Australia. Speculators added to net shorts in Chicago into last Tuesday, but Friday’s bounce and early Monday gains hinted at some short-covering as open interest in HRW continued to rise.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 started around $4.26¼/bu, softer versus Friday’s $4.30 settle after USDA trimmed yield to 186.7 bpa but raised acres, nudging production to 16.814 bbu and new-crop U.S. carryout to 2.11 bbu. Funds deepened net shorts into last Tuesday; still, Friday’s rally (fronts +10–11¢) and a higher national cash print ($3.85½) underscored supportive basis pockets even as river logistics remain a watch-item.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 hovered near $10.46/bu at the open, little changed from Friday’s $10.46¼ close after USDA inched yield to 53.5 bpa and lifted production to 4.3 bbu, while old-crop and new-crop U.S. carry edged to 330 mbu and 300 mbu, respectively. Crush stayed constructive into Monday’s NOPA print, with soyoil leading product margins last week as biodiesel demand tightened the oil balance.

Global currents shaping today’s trade

The Renewable Fuels Association leaned into Friday’s WASDE, arguing the projected 2.1 bbu corn surplus strengthens the case for nationwide E15 to expand ethanol demand and absorb supply—an advocacy push that kept corn in the policy spotlight to start the week.

USDA said its upgraded export sales reporting platform will go live Oct 23 (first weekly report Oct 30)—important housekeeping after the 2022 false start and a reminder that timely, reliable sales prints can sway short-term price action and basis expectations.

Weather set a mixed tone: warmer North America should aid harvest pace, but repeated showers from the Northern Plains into the Midwest may snag fieldwork; Europe wants a breather after weeks of rain; the Black Sea stays drier than ideal for late corn fill and winter-wheat establishment. Logistics-wise, low Mississippi levels keep barge costs—and interior basis risk—on the radar.

In the Black Sea/North Africa lane, Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr booked 600k+ t of wheat (mainly Black Sea) for Sep–Oct and also lined up six veg-oil cargoes, reinforcing Russia/Romania/Bulgaria/Ukraine’s grip on Med demand as FOB competition stays fierce.

Europe’s wheat balance swelled after a research update lifted EU soft-wheat output to a record 136.1 MMT for 2025/26—nearly +20% y/y—but noted sluggish exports amid heavy Russian competition and scant Chinese demand, raising the bar on EU pricing and logistics through Q4.

Brazil kept supply taps open: CONAB raised 2024/25 corn to 139.67 MMT and soy to 171.5 MMT; private outlooks point still higher for 2025/26. CEPEA flagged firm domestic corn on active spot demand and seller restraint, and spotlighted a rare profit split parity between soymeal (51%) and soyoil (49%) as biodiesel pull boosts oil values.

China tweaked the demand map. Beijing halved its 2024/25 corn import view to 3 MMT amid U.S. tariff frictions and quotas, while lifting soybean import estimates to 104 MMT on better crushing margins; separately, domestic wheat procurement topped 100 MMT, and Taiwan dispatched a delegation to sign U.S. soy/corn/wheat/beef LOIs.

Elsewhere in veg-oils, India’s August edible-oil imports hit a one-year high at 1.62 MMT as refiners favored palm (up 15.8% m/m to 990k t) ahead of festivals, adding a seasonal bid to SE Asia balances. Meanwhile, Canada reported “constructive” talks with China over steep provisional duties on canola, and Brazil gained clearance to export beef tallow to Singapore—another biofuel-linked outlet to watch.

Ukraine’s grain exports lagged last year by ~40% so far this season (wheat −24%, corn −64%), a sign that corridor frictions and quality splits still bite even as early-grain harvest nears last year’s pace; the Black Sea again looks pivotal for Q4 competitive dynamics.