Wheat

The wheat market ended Tuesday weaker, with losses across all major U.S. exchanges. Chicago soft red winter futures slipped 3 to 5 cents, Kansas City HRW closed 4 to 7 cents lower, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 2 to 4 cents. The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 85% of the U.S. spring wheat harvest completed by September 7, slightly ahead of average, though Montana and the Dakotas continued to trail. Ukraine’s economy ministry projected winter wheat acreage at 4.75 million hectares, up 250,000 hectares from last year. European Commission data pegged EU wheat exports at 3.2 MMT since July 1, lagging behind last year’s 5.05 MMT. Meanwhile, Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31 were down sharply at 4.112 MMT, a 22% year-on-year drop. December 2025 CBOT wheat closed at $5.20¼ per bushel, down 3½ cents.

Corn

Corn futures pulled back on Tuesday, erasing part of Monday’s gains, with most contracts down 1 to 2 cents. The national average cash corn price slipped 2 cents to $3.75. NASS reported the U.S. corn harvest at 4% complete, with progress varying by state: Missouri reached 9%, while Indiana and Illinois remained at 1% and 2%. Crop conditions slipped to 68% good-to-excellent, with steep week-over-week declines in Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa. Analysts expect USDA’s September report on Friday to cut yields by 2.6 bpa to 186.2 bpa, trimming production to 16.516 bbu. In Brazil, ANEC projected September corn exports at 6.96 MMT, an increase from last week’s outlook. December 2025 CBOT corn closed at $4.19¾ per bushel, down 2 cents.

Soybeans

Soybean futures finished Tuesday modestly weaker, slipping 2 to 3 cents across the front months. The national average cash soybean price eased by 2¼ cents to $9.53¼. Soymeal gained $1.50 to $7.00 in the front months, while soyoil futures fell sharply, down 87 to 105 points. NASS reported 21% of soybeans dropping leaves, slightly behind normal, with progress lagging most significantly in Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Condition ratings dropped to 64% good-to-excellent, with notable declines in Ohio, South Dakota, and Missouri. USDA’s September report is expected to trim yield by 0.3 bpa to 53.3 bpa, bringing production down to 4.271 bbu. Stats Canada pegged canola stocks at just 1.597 MMT, down over 50% year-on-year, while Brazil’s September soybean exports are forecast at 7.43 MMT. November 2025 CBOT soybeans settled at $10.31¼ per bushel, down 2½ cents.

Global Drivers Shaping Tuesday’s Close

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit emerged as the dominant macro storyline. With the January–July shortfall hitting a record $33.6 billion, markets digested how persistent import growth and softer exports are reshaping competitiveness. The widening gap, tied to strong domestic demand and intensified global competition, weighed on long-term U.S. positioning even as day-to-day export sales showed some resilience.

Ukraine’s oilseed shipments remained at a standstill after the newly imposed 10% duty effectively froze rapeseed and soybean exports. By Tuesday, crushers across the region reported bottlenecks as documentation rules delayed loadings, forcing traders to reshuffle near-term veg-oil supply chains. The interruption came just as Kyiv announced ambitious 2026 winter grain sowing plans, underscoring the split between resilient planting intentions and fragile export logistics.

In Russia, optimism continued to build around a large harvest. SovEcon lifted its 2025/26 wheat estimate to 86.1 MMT, citing stronger-than-expected yields in Volga regions. With Stavropol overtaking Rostov in output, regional balances shifted but the national outlook stayed firmly expansionary. These updates reassured markets that Russian exports will remain heavy through the back half of the calendar year.

Brazil contributed both early-season planting news and shifting trade balances. Soybean seeding in Paraná began slightly ahead of last year, while summer corn planting surged to 12% by September 4, advancing more quickly than expected. CEPEA confirmed a monthly record for August soybean exports at 9.33 MMT, while wheat imports climbed as Argentina exploited favorable spreads, reflecting the increasingly two-way trade flows across South America.

China’s demand structure remained under scrutiny. Reports of declining beef consumption for a second consecutive year reinforced expectations of weaker high-value protein demand. Yet the potential for increased imports, given tightening domestic output, left the balance ambiguous. Traders focused less on aggregate volumes and more on the mix of proteins driving feed and meal usage.

Policy moves in Washington also played a role in stabilizing sentiment. The House vote to extend Federal Grain Inspection Service funding through 2030 reassured exporters that reliability of U.S. standards would remain intact. Though the Senate has yet to confirm, the extension was widely interpreted as a step toward preserving U.S. credibility in competitive global markets.

Weather risks resurfaced in Asia and North America. Flooding rains in eastern China posed harvest delays for spring crops, while India’s monsoon continued to outperform averages, boosting reservoirs before wheat planting. In the U.S., sub-seasonal forecasts kept the Midwest mostly warm and dry into October, a positive for harvest pace but concerning for river transport and basis levels.

Finally, technology and long-term trade ties stayed in focus after Argentina granted approval for Beijing Dabeinong to cultivate GM soybeans locally. The move signaled another step in tightening Sino–Latin American agricultural integration, reinforcing how biotech approvals can reshape regional flows and cement China’s role as a partner beyond simple import volumes.