Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 started Friday around $5.22¼/bu after settling $5.19½ on Thursday and ticking ~2¾¢ higher in early dealings. The complex is rebuilding after a softer close, with new September deliveries and a sharp rise in open interest shaping sentiment into USDA’s delayed weekly export sales later today; July Census exports hit 2.305 MMT, a five-year July high, underscoring an improving baseline for U.S. shipments.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 began near $4.22/bu, adding roughly 2¼¢ to Thursday’s $4.19¾ settle as traders digested 1.075m b/d ethanol output, stocks of 22.564m bbl, and a national cash gauge edging to $3.75¼. July Census shipments of 6.224 MMT marked the second-largest July on record, while StoneX trimmed yield to 186.9 bpa with production at 16.577 bbu, keeping focus on next week’s USDA update.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 opened around $10.33¾/bu, about ¾¢ above Thursday’s $10.33 close after a midweek rebound. July Census showed 1.751 MMT bean exports (three-year July high), a record 1.392 MMT soymeal export print, and 28,583 MT soyoil shipments, while StoneX pegged yield at 53.2 bpa and production at 4.257 bbu ahead of today’s delayed export sales report.

Global food markets opened to a mixed macro backdrop: the FAO index held near a two-year high in August as meat hit a record, vegetable oils climbed on stronger palm/sunflower/rapeseed quotes, while grains and dairy eased; the FAO also lifted world grain stocks to a record 898.7 MMT for 2025/26 on bigger coarse-grain reserves even as wheat stocks steady on cuts in Iran and the EU.

Weather remains the swing factor. Forecasts flag possible frosts across the Northern Plains into Monday and a well-below-normal temperature regime sweeping the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest; Europe stays unsettled and wetter, aiding immature summer crops and winter-wheat soil prep, while the Black Sea stays dry, pressuring late-season finishes and new-crop plantings. Odds of a weak La Niña later this year remain elevated, skewing risk toward soggier Western Europe/Australia and stress in parts of Argentina’s winter wheat.

Logistics and demand are pulling in opposite directions. Mississippi River grain barge volumes fell week-over-week with higher St. Louis barge rates, while U.S. drought coverage ticked up to 9% of corn and 16% of soybean areas. Yet ethanol stays constructive with stocks at 22.564m bbl and production slightly above expectations, a combination that can nudge basis and processor margins as harvest nears.

Policy headlines intensified. China slapped preliminary duties up to 62.4% on EU pork and extended its anti-dumping probe on Canadian canola to March 2026, while Canada prepared support for canola and metals sectors. In Asia, Japan’s deal to expand purchases of U.S. corn, soybeans, fertilizer and bioethanol to $8B/year offers a fresh tailwind for U.S. exports.

Black Sea fundamentals were mixed. Ukraine’s grain exports are down 43% y/y so far this season, though corn output could rebound to 31.3 MMT in 2025/26 on better rains, lifting exports toward 26 MMT; early grain harvest reached 28.8 MMT. Russia reported 100 MMT of grain harvested so far and still targets ≥135 MMT for the year.

South American cues leaned supportive. Argentina’s wheat remains 98% good/excellent with recent rains largely beneficial despite isolated flooding; 2024/25 corn harvest is 98.5% complete with output at 49 MMT. Brazil’s September outlook calls for 6.75 MMT soybean and 6.37 MMT corn exports (Anec), while August trade showed coffee down 31% y/y and beef up 24% by volume.

Vegetable-oil markets watched Malaysian palm edge higher even as a spreading Ganoderma fungus threatens yields—now detected in ~13.7% of surveyed Malaysian area and appearing earlier in planting cycles, a risk that could tighten supplies already pressured by replanting delays and biodiesel mandates.

Asia protein and sanitary headlines added color. Brazil signaled the EU is set to recognize it as bird-flu free, potentially reopening the bloc to Brazilian poultry; combined with China’s new pork duties on the EU, cross-currents in animal protein trade could spill over into feed-grain flows and crush margins in coming weeks.

Export expectations framed today’s tape. Consensus looks for corn new-crop sales of 0.9–2.2 MMT (old-crop −0.4 to +0.1 MMT), soybeans new-crop 0.6–1.6 MMT (old-crop −0.3 to +0.05 MMT), and wheat 0.35–0.70 MMT for the week ended Aug 28, with Chinese ag futures and Malaysian palm firmer into the session.