Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 closed at $5.22/bu, down 6¼¢ as the complex faded into Wednesday’s finish. Pressure came alongside additional September deliveries (34 CBOT; 18 KC), a spring-wheat harvest now 72% complete, and soft overall tone across U.S. wheat classes. With the Monday holiday pushing export sales to Friday and NOAA calling for 1–2 inches across parts of the Southern Plains over the next week, rallies met selling interest into the close.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 corn settled at $4.18/bu, down 5¢, giving back part of Tuesday’s bounce. Market chatter centered on crop conditions at 69% good/excellent and producer survey estimates near 187.5 bpa and 16.63 bb production, while cash corn slipped to about $3.75. With weekly ethanol data delayed to today and export sales to Friday, traders marked time, leaving the board lower by 4–5¼¢ across most contracts.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 soybeans ended at $10.31½/bu, down 9½¢ as condition ratings eased to 65% G/E and product markets softened (soyoil off 69–82 pts; soymeal mixed). The day featured 586 September bean deliveries and a USDA-reported 185,000 MT soymeal sale to the Philippines for 2025/26. Producer surveys pegged U.S. yield around 53.28 bpa and production near 4.27 bb, adding to the cautious tone into the close.

Global drivers shaping the session

European fundamentals flashed warning lights: EU soft-wheat exports are down 44% y/y to ~2.57 MMT since July 1, with Saudi Arabia, Morocco and the UK among the top takers; corn imports are down 50% y/y. The Commission notes missing or incomplete data for several countries, but the direction still undercuts early-season export momentum.

Weather and balance sheets tightened for corn in Europe: LSEG cut EU-27 2025/26 corn output to 58.9 MMT (range 56.0–61.8) on dryness across France, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, implying 6.84 t/ha yields. Forecasts call for warmth in Central/Southeastern Europe and heavy rains in parts of France, Germany, Italy and Poland— a mix that can delay harvest and seed a supply-risk premium.

Black Sea headlines stayed mixed: Russia’s 2025/26 wheat production held at 83.4 MMT on recent weather, but SovEcon said exports—though nudged up to 43.7 MMT—have started slowly (July–Aug 6.1 MMT vs 9.9 MMT last year) and likely remain weak in September. Separately, Moscow’s bid for access to China’s wheat market remains stalled, capping nearby demand optionality.

U.S. weather flipped supportive: a significant cool-down and a mostly dry 6–10-day outlook dominated maps, easing late-season stress for corn/soy and smoothing early harvest logistics across the Plains and Midwest. That backdrop helped temper yield-loss fears even as intraday futures stayed heavy into Wednesday’s settlement.

Demand signals were two-sided: corn used for ethanol in July fell 5.8% y/y to 455.8 million bu, while U.S. soy crush rose 5.9% y/y to 204.8 million bu and bean-oil stocks fell 6.7% y/y. Weekly inspections showed corn at 1.407 MMT, soybeans 473k t, wheat 803k t, with Mexico leading corn and wheat and Vietnam topping soybeans—an active export pulse despite mixed domestic processing.

Vegetable-oil flows leaned heavy: a sixth straight monthly build in Malaysian palm stocks is expected for August to about 2.2 MMT, with output edging up and exports rebounding. With palm now at a discount to soyoil, Indian buying has picked up ahead of festival season, a spread dynamic that can pressure soyoil while underpinning palm. Chinese NOV ’25 boards reflected it—soybeans slightly lower, soyoil higher.

Asia trade lanes reopened and rerouted: Australia signaled a near-complete canola framework with China that could allow five trial shipments amid Canada tariff headwinds, and Kazakhstan dispatched a pilot 40-ft flexitank of sunflower oil to China, part of a tenfold growth in veg-oil exports to that market in five years—developments that can reshuffle crush margins and arbitrage across the region.

Latin America rounded out supply cues: in Brazil, wheat trading stayed limited as mills reported adequate coverage and Paraná harvest began (2%), while August domestic prices softened across key states. Looking forward, Brasília projects fertilizer demand rising to 58.5 MMT by 2030 and 73.1 MMT by 2036, underscoring cost-curve implications for upcoming planting cycles and logistics stress in interior states.