Wheat

Chicago Dec ’25 SRW started Wednesday around $5.26/bu, a touch below Tuesday’s $5.28¼ close as the complex struggled to shake off early-week losses. Spring wheat harvest reached 72% by Sunday, a notch above normal, while weekly U.S. wheat inspections printed 803k tons—stronger than a year ago but below the prior week—keeping sentiment mixed into the midweek session.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 corn opened near $4.19/bu, easing from Tuesday’s $4.23 settle after a late-day bounce. U.S. corn is 90% at dough and 58% dent, with conditions slipping to 69% good/excellent. July corn used for ethanol came in at 455.8 million bushels (down 5.8% y/y), while export inspections rose to 1.407 MMT, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, underscoring a push-pull between soft domestic grind and steady export flow.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 soybeans began near $10.37/bu, off from Tuesday’s $10.41 close as the market digests a softer condition score at 65% good/excellent. July crush reached 204.8 million bushels (+5.9% y/y), crude/once-refined oil stocks fell 6.7% y/y, and weekly inspections improved to 473k tons with Vietnam the top taker—signals that the oilseed demand base remains active even as fields advance with 94% pod-set.

Global drivers to watch today

LSEG cut its EU-27 2025/26 corn output to 58.9 MMT (range 56.0–61.8) as dryness in France, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary drags yields to an estimated 6.84 t/ha. Short-term forecasts flag warmth returning to Central/Southeastern Europe and heavy rains for parts of France, Germany, Italy, and Poland—weather that could delay harvest and keep supply risk premium in play.

Russia’s wheat story is steady on production but soft on shipments. LSEG holds 2025/26 Russia wheat at 83.4 MMT, while SovEcon nudged export expectations up to 43.7 MMT but stressed the slow July–August pace (6.1 MMT vs 9.9 MMT last year) and likely weak September loadings. Compounding the overhang, Moscow’s push for access to China’s wheat market remains stalled, limiting immediate avenues to absorb exportable supply.

A significant U.S. cool-down and mostly dry 6–10 day outlook dominate near-term weather, easing stress during late development and early harvest for corn/soy while tempering yield-loss fears. Regionally, the Northern and Central/Southern Plains plus the Midwest skew below to well below normal on temperatures through Saturday, with showers largely scattered—conditions that can smooth fieldwork and keep supply prospects stable into September.

Demand signals are mixed in the U.S. Weekly inspections show firmer corn and steady soybean movement, but July ethanol corn use dipped versus last year and the soy crush—while higher y/y—missed some lofty expectations; bean-oil stocks trended lower. Early-Wednesday futures positioning shows open interest rising across SRW, HRW, corn, soymeal and soyoil, hinting at active hedging around today’s catalysts.

EU trade flows are weak. EU soft-wheat exports are down 44% y/y to ~2.57 MMT since July 1, with Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and the UK among key destinations. Corn imports are down 50% y/y, though the Commission cautions that parts of the dataset (France, Bulgaria, Ireland, Romania) are incomplete—still, the directional signal is bearish for European outbound wheat demand in early 2025/26.

Vegetable-oil complex leans heavy as a sixth straight monthly build in Malaysian palm stocks is expected for August (to ~2.2 MMT). With palm now at a discount to soyoil, Indian buyers are reportedly increasing purchases ahead of festival season, a cross-current that can pressure soyoil while supporting palm. Nearby, Chinese NOV ’25 futures showed soybeans slightly lower with soyoil up, reflecting that same palm/soyoil relative value dynamic.

Asia oilseed trade lanes are reopening and expanding. Australia says a canola framework with China is near completion, potentially green-lighting five trial cargoes and redirecting flows after tariffs on Canada tightened that channel; in parallel, Kazakhstan shipped a pilot 40-foot flexitank batch of sunflower oil to China, the latest step in a decade-long tenfold increase in Kazakh veg-oil exports to that market. Either development could reshuffle regional crush margins and oilseed arbitrage.

South America and inputs round out the picture. In Brazil, wheat trades remain limited as mills report adequate coverage while Paraná harvest has just begun (2%); domestic prices softened in August across key states. Looking ahead, Brazil projects fertilizer demand rising to 58.5 MMT by 2030 and 73.1 MMT by 2036, highlighting long-run acreage intensification and logistics hurdles—factors that shape cost curves for the next planting cycles.