Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat (Sep ’25) started Tuesday near $5.13 ½ per bushel—about 4 ½ cents under Friday’s $5.18 close—before slipping in early trade as sellers leaned on abundant Black Sea supply. Speculative funds have been trimming bearish exposure, with the latest CFTC tally showing a 16,545-contract cut in Chicago’s net short to 81,587, but that short-covering tailwind is running into fresh pressure from cheaper Russian offers and steady harvest progress in the Northern Plains.

Russia’s FOB values eased again as new-crop arrivals picked up and buying interest lagged; 12.5% protein wheat was quoted near $230–$234/ton FOB late last week, down $5 week on week. Australia then added to the bearish backdrop: Canberra lifted its 2025 wheat forecast to ~33.8 MMT (fourth largest on record), part of a broader 62 MMT grains outlook that is 12% above June and ~26% above the 10-year average. Together with the EU’s slight production uptick and France’s quality drag (protein above 11% in only 69% of samples), export competition remains intense across key tenders.

Even so, U.S. sales momentum is respectable for the season: total wheat commitments stood at ~12.15 MMT (51% of USDA’s projection), the largest “this-week” book since 2013/14. Weather is mixed into early September—wetter Southern Plains and drier Northern Plains—helping spring-wheat harvest along but complicating old-crop quality pockets.

Corn

Corn (Sep ’25) began Tuesday around $3.95 per bushel, about 3 cents below Friday’s $3.98 settlement after a strong pre-holiday rally driven by fund short-covering and steady export interest. Specs cut their net short by nearly 34,000 contracts to 110,686 as of Tuesday, while old-crop U.S. commitments reached 70.475 MMT (98% of USDA’s forecast) and new-crop sales climbed to 18.775 MMT—the second-largest on record for this point in the year. Brazil’s second-crop harvest is essentially wrapped up, first-crop planting has begun in the Center-South, and domestic sellers there remain measured—keeping spot prices firm even as ports and FX volatility shuffle basis and export pace.

South Africa added to the feed-grain cushion by lifting its commercial corn forecast to 15.8 MMT (+23% y/y), while China’s output outlook nudged lower to ~299 MMT on heat stress in Henan and Shandong (offset by excellent Northeast conditions). U.S. weather leans cooler/drier into September; that’s broadly supportive for harvest logistics but may cap late-season yield gains.

Soybeans

Soybeans (Sep ’25) opened Tuesday near $10.24 ½ per bushel—roughly 12 ¼ cents under Friday’s $10.36 ¾ close—after a firmer finish last week that couldn’t fully offset softness in soymeal and soyoil. Managed money expanded a modest net-long stance into the weekend, while old-crop U.S. commitments stand at 50.869 MMT (100% of USDA’s target but behind average pace) and recent new-crop sales spiked to a marketing-year high of 1.37 MMT. Still, Brazilian premiums weakened as demand slowed and the stronger real weighed on local FOB values, while China continued to diversify origination across South America, keeping U.S. exporters dependent on seasonal windows and policy headlines.

Global Market Drivers

Trade policy set an uneven tone. Tokyo said any increase in U.S. rice purchases will stay within Japan’s existing duty-free quota and ruled out broader farm-tariff cuts, tempering talk of a larger agriculture chapter in the bilateral deal. The Philippines, by contrast, suspended rice imports for 60 days from Sept. 1, injecting uncertainty into near-term Asian rice flows.

Black Sea price leadership persisted. Russian export quotes fell again on weak demand and accelerating new-crop arrivals; analysts lifted August shipment estimates to ~4.1–4.2 MMT and see September near 4.1–4.3 MMT. Meanwhile, Russia is pressing China to approve imports of Russian winter wheat (currently only spring wheat/barley are allowed), a move that would further entrench Moscow in Asia’s milling wheat supply chain.

Ukraine mixed policy with momentum. Kyiv’s president signed a law imposing a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, reshaping farm margins and crush incentives just as August farm exports rose 15.6% m/m to ~4.0 MMT led by grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils. Yet sunflower oil exports for 2024/25 fell 24% y/y to 4.73 MMT on smaller seed supplies and weak processing margins; 2025/26 sunseed and sunoil output forecasts were cut on weather, though India, Spain, and Italy remained key destinations for Ukrainian sunoil shipments.

Big Southern Hemisphere swings mattered. Australia upgraded 2025 wheat to ~33.8 MMT (with bigger barley and canola, too) after strong winter rains, adding weight to forward exportable supply. Across the Tasman, Argentina warned of frost risk following heavy late-August rains—beneficial for soil moisture and heading wheat, but with a threat profile that could trim quality if cold snaps persist. Argentina’s ag-export revenues also plunged 25% y/y in August and 55% m/m versus July, highlighting liquidity strains.

Vegetable oils tilted bullish in Asia. India’s August palm oil imports surged to a 13-month high (≈993k tons) on price advantage versus soyoil, with edible oil imports at ~1.6 MMT. Malaysia’s August palm exports rose 10.2% m/m, while Indonesia’s Jan–Jul palm shipments climbed ~11% y/y, collectively tightening regional stocks and underpinning benchmark palm futures.

Brazil’s micro-fundamentals diverged by commodity. CEPEA noted corn prices holding firm as sellers ration supply late in safrinha season and first-crop planting begins in the south; exports remain slower than a year ago despite decent daily pace. By contrast, soybean trades slowed on weaker demand and a softer FX tailwind; Paranaguá and Paraná indices eased 2.3% and 1.7% on the week, respectively. In wheat, Brazilian mills reported comfortable coverage and limited grain buying ahead of a larger 2025 harvest, keeping domestic prices under pressure.

Corporate and macro signals reinforced the biofuel/feed nexus. Amaggi and Inpasa agreed to form a JV to build at least three corn-ethanol plants (each ~2 MMT of corn capacity), pending antitrust approval—evidence of Brazil’s deepening corn-to-fuel integration. In the U.S., weekly beef production rose to 488 million lbs while pork slipped, modestly nudging near-term feed demand and by-product flows.

Weather stayed in the driver’s seat. The U.S. Northern and Central Plains/Midwest face back-to-back fronts bringing cooler, drier air and spot frost risks (northern tier), potentially curbing late development; Europe’s showery pattern aids immature summer crops and preps soils for winter wheat; Brazil’s far south trends wetter into the weekend as Central Brazil waits for the rainy season; the Black Sea stays hot and dry, a poor setup for winter wheat planting later this month. India is set for above-average September monsoon rains—supportive for reservoirs but risky for late summer crops.