Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Friday’s session at $5.10 ¼ per bushel, holding steady after Thursday’s 8-cent gain. Kansas City hard red winter wheat added 1 to 3 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat rose up to 4 ¼ cents. Fresh U.S. export sales of 579,794 tons for the week ending August 21, led by Vietnam, Nigeria, and Mexico, supported market sentiment. Still, global supply pressure remains strong. Russia’s wheat harvest forecast was raised to 86.1 million tons with exports exceeding 43 million, underscoring its tightening grip on world trade. Canada’s crop was pegged at 35.55 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year, while the EU’s estimate rose slightly to 128.1 million tons. France’s rebound crop of 33.4 million tons faces milling quality challenges, with protein levels slipping—only 69% tested above 11%, far below the five-year average, limiting export competitiveness despite robust volumes.

Corn

Corn futures began Friday at $3.85 ½ per bushel, up 2 ¾ cents after Thursday’s 3-cent gain. Fresh U.S. export demand helped support prices, with 2.09 million tons of new crop sales recorded last week, mainly to Mexico, Colombia, and unknown buyers. Ethanol production fell marginally to 1.07 million barrels per day, while stocks slipped to 22.55 million barrels, maintaining a bearish undertone. The U.S. crop outlook remains strong at nearly 415 million tons, with 71% of fields rated good-to-excellent. Canada’s corn crop was estimated at 15.55 million tons, 1.5% higher than last year, while South Africa’s forecast was lifted by 5.1% to 15.8 million tons, a 23% annual increase. In Brazil, acreage adjustments boosted production estimates to 137.4 million tons, highlighting its growing role in global supply.

Soybeans

Soybean futures opened Friday at $10.28 ¼ per bushel, up 3 cents after a narrow 1-cent rise on Thursday. Soymeal futures fell sharply, with September down $6.80, while soyoil contracts slipped 56 to 77 points. U.S. export sales data showed reductions of 189,184 tons in old crop soybeans, but new crop sales surged to a marketing-year high of 1.37 million tons, led by unknown destinations and Mexico. Soymeal sales totaled 262,047 tons across marketing years, while soyoil sales reached 18,485 tons, both exceeding expectations. Canada’s soybean crop is projected at 7.02 million tons, down 7.3% year-on-year, while canola output increased 3.6% to 19.94 million tons. Brazil trimmed its August soybean export forecast to 8.9 million tons, with soymeal shipments reduced to 2.13 million tons. Meanwhile, China continues diversifying its supply, booking record purchases from Argentina and Uruguay and leaving the U.S. sidelined in the fourth quarter.

Global Market Drivers

FranceAgriMer confirmed weakening protein levels in French wheat, raising concerns about milling quality and export competitiveness at a time when France needs to push aggressively into non-EU markets. Targets of 9.5 million tons may prove optimistic, with Argus estimating just 8 million achievable.

Weather remains a central factor. The U.S. Corn Belt is entering a prolonged cool and dry stretch into September, limiting late-season crop development for corn and soybeans. Europe is benefiting from steady rainfall, boosting corn yields and priming soils for winter wheat sowing. In Argentina, heavy rains of 80–100 mm are forecast in the Pampas and Rio Grande do Sul, threatening wheat with flooding and disease, while Brazil enjoys favorable showers ahead of spring planting.

Canada remains in focus after Statistics Canada pegged wheat production at 35.55 million tons, slightly under expectations, while canola was raised to 19.94 million tons. Meanwhile, China booked three Australian canola cargoes for Q4, the first since 2020, signaling a diversification away from Canadian supply amid ongoing trade tensions.

The Black Sea outlook is mixed. Ukraine’s wheat harvest is pegged at 21.9 million tons, while Russia’s 86.1 million-ton forecast cements its dominance. Bulgaria and Romania face warm and dry conditions accelerating corn harvests, while weak demand for Ukrainian milling wheat continues to pressure prices in North Africa, a market increasingly controlled by Russian exporters.

South America’s farm credit strains deepen despite bumper crops. Brazilian corn output was lifted to 137.4 million tons after acreage revisions, while soybean farmers face liquidity constraints, slowing fertilizer purchases. Defaults are at record highs, raising red flags for productivity. At the same time, a federal court preserved Brazil’s soy moratorium, restricting purchases linked to Amazon deforestation.

In South Africa, corn production was lifted to 15.8 million tons, further strengthening global supply. Meanwhile, Egypt raised its wheat procurement price for the 2026 season to 2,250–2,350 pounds per ardab, signaling efforts to secure local supply amid volatile global trade.

China continues to reshape soybean trade flows, boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay to potentially 10 million tons in 2025/26, a record volume that adds to heavy Brazilian imports. With no U.S. soybean bookings for Q4 so far, American exporters risk losing their key seasonal window as Beijing diversifies away from U.S. supplies.

Logistics remain a constraint. U.S. barge shipments on the Mississippi fell to 485,000 tons in the week ending August 23, down from 667,000 tons. Corn shipments slid 29% and soybeans 27%, while St. Louis barge rates rose to $18.63 per short ton. At the same time, the U.S. poultry sector reported a 1.6% increase in slaughter, while Brazil’s exports remain capped by avian flu restrictions, feeding back into grain demand through feed requirements.