Wheat

Chicago wheat futures closed Thursday firmer, with the September 2025 contract settling at $5.10 ¼ per bushel, up 8 cents on the day. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also gained modestly, finishing 1 to 3 cents higher, while Minneapolis spring wheat edged up by as much as 4 ¼ cents. The market was buoyed by fresh U.S. export sales of 579,794 tons for the week ending August 21, led by Vietnam, Nigeria, and Mexico. However, global supply pressure remains dominant. Argus raised Russia’s 2025/26 soft wheat harvest forecast to 86.1 million tons, the third-largest on record, while Ukraine’s harvest stands at 21.9 million tons. Canadian production was pegged at 35.55 million tons, slightly below expectations, and the EU projected its wheat crop at 128.1 million tons. Despite France’s rebound crop of 33.4 million tons, protein levels remain a concern, with only 69% testing above 11%, far below the five-year average, raising doubts about milling quality and export competitiveness.

Corn

Corn futures ended higher on Thursday, with September 2025 contracts closing at $3.85 ½ per bushel, up 3 cents. Gains followed fresh U.S. export demand, including 2.09 million tons of new crop sales for the week, driven by Mexico, Colombia, and unknown destinations. U.S. ethanol production slipped marginally to 1.07 million barrels per day, with stocks down to 22.55 million barrels, reinforcing a bearish undertone. Yet, crop prospects remain favorable, with U.S. production estimated near a record 415 million tons, supported by 71% of fields rated good-to-excellent. In Canada, corn production was pegged at 15.55 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year. South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lifted its commercial corn forecast by 5.1% to 15.8 million tons, a 23% annual increase, while China’s outlook edged slightly lower to 299 million tons due to prolonged heat stress in Henan and Shandong.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed narrowly firmer on Thursday, with the September 2025 contract finishing at $10.28 ¼ per bushel, up 1 cent. Soymeal futures weakened, with September down $6.80, while soyoil futures fell sharply by 56 to 77 points. Export data showed old crop soybean sales reduced by 189,184 tons, but new crop sales reached a marketing-year high of 1.37 million tons, surpassing expectations, with the largest buyers being unknown destinations and Mexico. Soymeal sales totaled 262,047 tons across marketing years, while soyoil sales reached 18,485 tons, exceeding forecasts. In Canada, soybean output was pegged at 7.02 million tons, down 7.3% from last year, while canola production rose 3.6% to 19.94 million tons. Brazil’s forecast for August soybean exports was trimmed to 8.9 million tons, while a legal clash between farmers and Bayer over seed “breeding incentives” adds uncertainty to the country’s long-term competitive edge.

Global Market Drivers

FranceAgriMer confirmed weakening protein levels in French wheat, with only 69% of samples above 11% protein versus a five-year average of 83%, despite strong test weights and Hagberg values. This undermines export competitiveness just as France must push aggressively into non-EU markets, aiming to ship 9.5 million tons outside the bloc, though Argus sees only 8 million achievable.

Weather remains pivotal. The U.S. Corn Belt is entering a cooler, drier stretch into September, potentially curbing late-season crop development. Europe faces wetter conditions beneficial for corn and soil preparation for wheat sowing, while Argentina braces for heavy rain in Cordoba that could increase flooding and disease risks. In the Black Sea, Bulgaria and Romania face warm and dry conditions accelerating corn harvests, while Ukraine’s wheat harvest is pegged at 21.9 million tons.

Statistics Canada’s estimates put wheat production at 35.55 million tons and canola at 20.1 million tons, slightly above last year, while China diversifies away from Canada, booking at least three cargoes of Australian canola for the first time since 2020. This shift comes amid escalating trade disputes between Ottawa and Beijing.

In South America, Brazil faces deepening farm credit strains, with fertilizer sales slowing amid record loan defaults and interest rates at their highest since 2006. Fertilizer prices also edged lower, with urea, MAP, and potash retreating as liquidity thinned. Meanwhile, a federal court upheld the soy moratorium restricting purchases linked to Amazon deforestation, tightening sustainability oversight.

South Africa’s upgraded corn forecast adds further weight to global supply, while Egypt raised its local wheat procurement price for the 2026 season to 2,250–2,350 pounds per ardab, aiming to secure domestic supply amid volatile import markets dominated by Russian exports.

Logistical strains continue, with U.S. barge shipments on the Mississippi falling sharply to 667,000 tons last week, down from 853,000, as soybean volumes plunged 36%. Protein markets also factored in, with U.S. poultry slaughter up 1.6% year-on-year in July, while Brazil’s exports remain constrained by avian flu restrictions, continuing to influence feed demand dynamics.