Wheat

September 2025 CBOT wheat opened Tuesday’s session at $5.15 per bushel, down 5 cents from Monday’s close, as the market softened across all three major U.S. wheat contracts. The pullback follows Monday’s fractional gains, with Kansas City HRW slightly higher, Chicago SRW up ½ cent, and Minneapolis spring wheat narrowly mixed. USDA’s Crop Progress data showed the U.S. winter wheat harvest at 90%, just shy of the five-year average pace of 91%, while spring wheat harvest progress reached 16%, lagging behind the 22% norm. Condition ratings for spring wheat improved marginally to 49% good-to-excellent, but the Brugler500 index fell by one point to 331, reflecting higher “very poor” ratings. Export inspections revealed a sharp weekly drop, with 365,486 metric tons shipped, down 47% from the prior week and 45% below the same period last year. Traders are also awaiting the USDA’s Crop Production report, with expectations for total U.S. wheat output at 1.922 billion bushels, down 7 million from last month, and new crop ending stocks pegged at 882 million bushels. Internationally, a South Korean mill issued a tender for 50,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat, with offers due Wednesday.

Corn

September 2025 CBOT corn opened at $3.85 per bushel, down 3¼ cents in early Tuesday trade after closing Monday with a 2¼-cent gain. Monday’s advance was supported by short covering, reflected in a sharp 36,749-contract drop in open interest. USDA’s weekly crop update showed U.S. corn at 94% silking, 58% in the dough stage, and 14% dented, with condition ratings slipping by one point to 72% good-to-excellent. National average cash corn prices edged lower to $3.68½ per bushel. Export inspections for the week ending August 7 totaled 1.492 million metric tons, up 16% from the week before and more than 51% higher than the same week in 2024, with Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan leading destinations. Analysts ahead of the USDA report are projecting a national yield of 184.3 bushels per acre, with production forecast at 15.995 billion bushels—up 290 million from July’s WASDE. Old crop carryout is expected at 1.325 billion bushels, with new crop stocks estimated at 1.9 billion. Overnight, a South Korean buyer booked 65,000 metric tons of corn in an import tender.

Soybeans

September 2025 CBOT soybeans opened Tuesday at $9.91¾ per bushel, down 11¼ cents in early trade after a strong 24-cent rally on Monday. Monday’s surge followed political developments over the weekend, with President Donald Trump calling for China to quadruple U.S. soybean purchases and subsequently extending the tariff truce with Beijing for 90 days. USDA reported soybean blooming at 91% and pod setting at 71%, both slightly below average. Crop condition ratings slipped by one point to 68% good-to-excellent, with the Brugler500 index also down by one point to 374. National average cash soybean prices rose sharply to $9.51¼ per bushel. Export inspections last week totaled 518,066 metric tons, down 17.5% from the week prior but nearly 48% above last year’s same week, with Mexico, Germany, and Egypt the leading destinations. Ahead of the USDA report, analysts expect a national yield of 53 bushels per acre and production of 4.374 billion bushels—up 39 million from July’s WASDE. New crop ending stocks are seen at 351 million bushels, up from last month, while old crop carryout is expected to tighten slightly to 345 million.

Key Global Market Drivers

Donald Trump’s weekend remarks urging China to increase U.S. soybean purchases by fourfold dominated market sentiment, sparking a soybean rally and influencing the broader oilseed complex. However, market analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of such a shift, as it would require China to replace most of its Brazilian supply, a move deemed improbable. The 90-day extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce temporarily eased escalation fears but kept uncertainty alive over whether trade concessions will be required for further extensions.

Vegetable oil markets remained buoyant, with Malaysian palm oil futures jumping 3.03% to 4,384 ringgit on strong demand and tightening supply outlooks. Gains in palm oil helped lift soyoil prices, with analysts citing ongoing substitution effects between palm, canola, and soybean oils as a driver of volatility in the global oilseed market.

Weather remains a central factor shaping sentiment. In the U.S., late-season Midwest rainfall patterns are under close watch for their impact on corn and soybean yields. Abroad, dryness in Australia’s wheat belt and parts of the Canadian Prairies is raising yield concerns, adding to market nervousness.

The Black Sea grain trade continued to reflect weaker Asian demand, with freight rates from the region to South China sharply below last year. Nonetheless, over 300,000 metric tons of Ukrainian barley have been booked by Chinese buyers, hinting at potential demand recovery. High vessel availability and reduced shipment volumes for other commodities, however, are keeping freight rates under pressure.

European rapeseed harvest progress has been slowed by persistent rain, though early yield and oil content results have been favorable. The European Commission cut its harvest forecast to 18.5 million tons—above last year but still short of processing needs. Romania’s output is expected to rise sharply to 1.8 million tons, well above 2024 levels.

In the U.S., export inspections for the week ending August 7 offered fresh support across grains, with wheat shipments of 737,831 metric tons exceeding expectations, corn shipments showing strong performance, and soybeans booked in large volumes by key buyers including Taiwan, Egypt, and the Netherlands.

Global macroeconomic sentiment continues to influence speculative flows, as broader financial markets react to geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations. A firmer U.S. dollar is providing some headwinds to U.S. exports, but commodity-specific fundamentals remain the main driver this week.

All eyes are now on the USDA Crop Production report due later today, which is expected to deliver updated yield and production estimates across all major crops. The release is anticipated to set the tone for short-term price action, with any deviations from trade expectations likely to trigger sharp market reactions.