Wheat futures began the week on a steady note, with the Chicago September 2025 contract closing unchanged at $5.16¾ per bushel. Kansas City HRW futures slipped 1 to 2 cents, while MPLS spring wheat posted fractional mixed moves. USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that U.S. winter wheat is now 86% harvested, close to the average pace, while spring wheat harvest has reached 5%, slightly behind the 9% average. Export inspections for the week ending July 31 came in strong at 599,595 MT, more than double the previous week, with the Philippines, Nigeria, and Mexico as the top destinations. Total wheat exports for the marketing year stand at 3.911 MMT, 8.75% above last year’s level.

Corn futures fell to a Monday close of $3.87 per bushel, down 2½ cents. The U.S. corn crop is reported at 88% silking and 42% in the dough stage, with 6% dented. Crop conditions remain stable at 73% rated good-to-excellent. StoneX estimated the 2025 U.S. corn yield at 188.1 bushels per acre, with total production projected at 16.323 billion bushels. Weekly export inspections were recorded at 1.208 MMT, with Mexico taking the largest share. However, Brazilian corn prices are pressured by slow exports and ample supply from key producing states, even as the harvest pace, at 74.16%, lags last year’s 87.34%.

Soybeans saw a firmer session, with September 2025 contracts closing at $9.75¼ per bushel, up 5¾ cents. Soymeal futures gained $1.90 to $6.30/ton, while soyoil futures remained mixed. USDA data confirmed that 85% of the U.S. soybean crop is blooming and 58% is setting pods. Crop conditions slipped by 1% to 69% good-to-excellent. Export shipments surged to 612,539 MT last week, the highest since April and 67% above the same week last year, with Germany, Egypt, and Mexico leading the purchases. StoneX projects the 2025 U.S. soybean yield at 53.6 bpa, while Brazil’s upcoming crop is estimated at 178.2 MMT, a 5.6% increase due to expanded acreage.

Across the global market, India’s vegetable oil imports shifted significantly in July. Palm oil imports dropped 10% to 858,000 tons due to contract cancellations, while soyoil shipments surged 38% month-on-month to 495,000 tons, hitting a three-year high. Total edible oil imports rose 1.5% to 1.53 million tons. This spike comes as refiners stockpile ahead of the festival season. India’s increased demand, particularly for soyoil from Argentina and Brazil, is likely to influence global oilseed trade patterns through the coming months.

In Argentina, newly implemented export tariff cuts are reshaping production forecasts. The Rosario Board of Trade predicts that if the lower tariffs and a unified FX rate remain in place, Argentina’s crop output could reach 172.3 million tons by 2034-35, up 8% from previous projections. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects soybean production for 2025-26 to rise by 2.3 million tons year-on-year, reversing earlier expectations of a decline. Corn production, however, is projected to be 1.5 million tons lower compared to pre-policy estimates.

Brazil’s soybean market is experiencing upward price pressure driven by strong international demand and currency effects. July soybean exports reached 10.44 million tons, with a daily average 12.4% higher than in July 2024. Export premiums have climbed to three-year highs, making Brazilian beans particularly competitive amid rising U.S. tariffs on exports to certain markets. Buyers are shifting their purchasing strategies toward Brazilian suppliers.

In the palm oil market, Malaysia is grappling with rising inventories projected to reach 2.25 million tons by the end of July, the highest in nearly two years. Production climbed 8% to 1.83 million tons, while exports rose only slightly by 3.2%. Aggressive discounted sales from Indonesia ahead of August’s higher export duty capped Malaysia’s ability to reduce stock levels. Analysts highlight that palm oil faces strong competition from South American and Black Sea soybean oil, both of which are abundant due to high yields this season.

Russian wheat production forecasts have been trimmed again, with SovEcon lowering its 2025-26 estimate to 83.3 million tons due to weaker southern yields, despite better-than-expected performance in central and Siberian regions. Meanwhile, heavy rains in parts of European Russia are unlikely to significantly affect total production but may reduce grain quality, especially for winter wheat.

Ukraine’s grain harvest continues to lag sharply behind last year, with total output so far reaching 15.5 million tons, down 39% from 25.3 million tons in the same period of 2024. Wheat production is reported at 11.4 million tons versus 19.4 million last year, while barley output is down 26%. These deficits are adding bullish sentiment to Black Sea wheat prices, even as global futures remain pressured.

USDA’s latest report on oilseed processing showed that June soybean crushings hit 197.1 million bushels, 7.4% higher than a year ago and a new record for June. Crude soybean oil production also increased by 7.8%, while stocks declined by 10.8%, indicating tighter margins across the sector. At the same time, U.S. corn consumption for ethanol reached 448 million bushels in June, 0.4% higher year-on-year, with DDGS production rising to 1.876 million tons.

Weather remains a mixed factor across major producing regions. Heavy rainfall in Canada’s Saskatchewan is expected to aid wheat yield formation, while dry conditions in Brazil’s second-corn belt will speed up delayed harvesting. Europe is facing a heatwave in the southwest, especially affecting Spain, while northern China is seeing rains that may ease drought in the North China Plain. Tropical disturbances in the Atlantic are also being monitored for potential impacts on logistics in the coming weeks.