Wheat

Wheat futures in Chicago opened Monday’s session with the July 2025 SRW contract priced at $5.18¾ per bushel. This reflects a continuation of last week’s subdued momentum, driven by weak U.S. export performance and firm global supply projections. The U.S. market remains weighed down by stiff competition, particularly from Russia and the Black Sea region. Despite support from recent international purchases, such as Egypt’s procurement activity and South Korean imports of U.S. wheat, the bearish tone has persisted. In addition, recent updates from the International Grains Council confirming ample global supply, coupled with rising expectations for Russian output, have added to the market’s pressure.

Corn

Corn futures for the July 2025 contract opened the day at $4.05¾ per bushel in Chicago. The corn market remains underpinned by mixed signals. On the one hand, export volumes have softened, and forecasts for global production, especially in South America, are being revised upwards. On the other hand, U.S. crop development is progressing under varying weather conditions, including both rainfall and heat stress. Last week’s export sales data was modest, and attention now shifts to the upcoming USDA Acreage Report and Quarterly Grain Stocks figures. These are expected to provide clearer insight into U.S. planting intentions and inventory levels, which could become key market drivers in the coming sessions.

Soybeans

The July 2025 soybean contract opened at $10.19½ per bushel on Monday, slightly weaker as the market contends with subdued export sales and persistent South American supply strength. Brazil continues to dominate with high production expectations, while U.S. sales have failed to impress in recent weeks. Soymeal and soyoil futures remain under pressure due to sluggish demand, particularly from China. Although weather developments and acreage data could prompt volatility, the sentiment entering the week is one of caution. With Argentina facing changing tax policies and domestic logistics challenges, global buyers continue to diversify sourcing strategies.

Key Global Grain Market Developments Shaping Monday’s Session

U.S. traders began the week awaiting key USDA data releases scheduled for later Monday, including the June Acreage Report and Quarterly Grain Stocks. These will offer updated figures for U.S. planting areas and inventory levels, which are crucial for short-term price direction. Current estimates suggest corn acreage could approach 95.4 million acres, and soybeans near 83.5 million acres. Any deviation from expectations could spark notable market reactions.

In export activity, South Korea’s Feed Industry Association finalized a tender to purchase 65,000 tons of optional-origin corn for late October delivery. This indicates ongoing demand from Asia despite cautious trading sentiment. The purchase also reinforces the competitiveness of South American and Black Sea suppliers, who continue to dominate tenders at the expense of U.S. corn.

China's Dalian Commodity Exchange saw a decline in soymeal prices as spot demand weakened. Meal demand typically softens in the summer months, but the current levels have surprised traders. Weak crush margins and rising soybean stocks in Chinese ports suggest lower import requirements in the near term. This could weigh on U.S. soybean exports if the trend persists.

Brazilian corn and soybean prices remained steady over the weekend, but local analysts are raising concerns over logistics and export bottlenecks. Port congestion in Santos and Paranaguá, along with trucker strikes in some inland areas, are slowing the flow of grains to vessels. If these challenges intensify, they could temporarily shift demand back toward North American ports.

Argentine market activity continued to reflect preemptive sales strategies. After June’s rush to export soybeans before the new tax increases, traders expect a significant decline in export activity in July. This could reduce global soymeal availability and place pressure on alternative suppliers such as Brazil and the U.S., depending on how quickly Argentine exporters adjust to the new tax environment.

Russia is maintaining its aggressive wheat pricing strategy, offering 12.5% protein wheat below $200 per ton FOB. This pricing undercuts most competitors and secures continued market share in regions like Africa and the Middle East. However, persistent dryness in parts of Russia and Ukraine remains a weather wildcard that could still affect final harvest volumes.

Weather conditions in Europe remain concerning, particularly in northern and central regions. Prolonged dry spells are reducing yield prospects for wheat and corn, especially in Germany and Poland. Conversely, southern Europe continues to benefit from more favorable weather, boosting soft wheat yields in countries like Spain and Italy. The result is a divided continental outlook with mixed expectations for final production.

Egypt’s wheat procurement strategy remains diversified. Over the weekend, it was confirmed that Egypt’s state buyer finalized contracts totaling 470,000 tons from various sources, including Russia, France, Romania, and Bulgaria. This marks another example of Egypt’s effort to mitigate supply risk amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea and weather volatility.

The International Grains Council maintained its global wheat production forecast at 808 million tons, reinforcing the view of adequate global supply. Corn projections were slightly trimmed, reflecting lower carryout expectations in some major exporters. The soy complex saw steady estimates, but a close eye remains on Chinese demand and biodiesel-linked soy oil consumption trends in Southeast Asia.

U.S. logistics data from the Mississippi River corridor showed stable soybean barge movement and a slight dip in corn shipments. Freight rates in St. Louis rose modestly, pointing to steady demand for river transport. This comes as export terminals gear up for increased activity ahead of the upcoming Fourth of July holiday break.

Indonesia’s April palm oil export figures were revised downward to 1.78 million tons, from 2.88 million in March. With domestic consumption also down and stocks rising to over 3 million tons, this indicates ongoing challenges in biodiesel uptake and broader edible oil demand. These trends continue to intersect with global oilseed pricing.

Finally, market participants remain wary of potential policy shifts in major importing countries. China, India, and Bangladesh are all monitoring food price inflation closely. Should any of these governments introduce price controls, import incentives, or export bans, the ripple effects could shift trade flows and alter pricing trajectories across multiple grain and oilseed commodities.