Wheat

Wheat markets began Friday with modest gains but remained under pressure following Thursday’s downturn. The July 2025 Chicago SRW contract opened the day at $5.21 per bushel, down 7¼ cents from the prior close. Despite early Friday strength, global supply signals continued to weigh on sentiment. U.S. export sales data fell short of expectations, with only 255,208 metric tons sold for the week ending June 19—significantly lower than forecast and down 40% from the previous week. Russian wheat production was revised upward by IKAR to 84.53 million tons, reinforcing export competition. South Korea’s purchase of 82,000 tons of U.S. wheat and the EU’s revised production estimate of 128.2 million tons for 2025/26 added to the mixed signals. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council raised global wheat production by 2 million tons to 808 million, indicating ample supply amid moderate consumption growth.

Corn

The corn market opened Friday at $4.09½ per bushel for the July 2025 contract, reflecting only a minor drop of ¾ cent from Thursday’s close. Thursday saw generally weaker movement, even as Mexico led purchases in the export market. Export sales data revealed 741,226 metric tons sold for the 2024/25 crop, the lowest weekly figure since early 2025 but still outperforming last year’s same period. Sales for the 2025/26 crop reached a six-week high. Brazil’s 2024/25 corn estimate was raised by Datagro to 134 million tons, with the second crop pegged at 108.5 million. In Argentina, harvest reached 55.3% completion. However, the International Grains Council cut the global corn production forecast by 1 million tons, citing lower carryout projections. The U.S. cash corn average price dipped slightly, reflecting the soft tone in the market, and preliminary open interest dropped significantly as traders adjusted ahead of the first notice day.

Soybeans

Soybean futures opened Friday with the July 2025 contract priced at $10.22¾ per bushel, down 2½ cents from Thursday’s close. Although the market is attempting a rebound into the weekend, pressures remain from weak meal demand and shifting export dynamics. U.S. sales for the week ending June 19 totaled 402,931 metric tons for the 2024/25 crop year, up year-over-year but down from the previous week. New crop sales were moderate, led by Mexico and unknown destinations. Brazilian supply continues to dominate global headlines, with Datagro lifting the nation’s soybean estimate to 173.5 million tons—up 1.5 million tons from previous figures. Soymeal futures hit multi-year lows, and soybean oil showed modest recovery. Despite gains in cash bean pricing, overall sentiment remains cautious, as global competition and weakening U.S. demand cast uncertainty.

Grain Market Headlines Shaping Friday’s Session

Ukraine is reconsidering a 10% export tax on rapeseed and soybeans, which was previously rejected. This shift could impact oilseed availability on the global market, as the country exports most of its rapeseed and half of its soybean crop. The proposal is facing pushback from farming and food producer unions, citing risks to competitiveness.

USDA export data confirmed a significant decline in wheat sales for the week ending June 19, totaling just 255,000 metric tons. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico. The figures highlight weak demand amid an already oversupplied global market.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 98.3% of Argentina’s soybean crop and 55.3% of corn have been harvested. Dry weather has accelerated wheat sowing, now at 72.7% complete across 6.7 million hectares. Argentina is expected to produce 50.3 million tons of soybeans and 49 million tons of corn for the 2024/25 season.

Ahead of an increase in soybean export taxes on July 1, Argentine farmers accelerated June sales to 4.71 million tons—double the volume from the same period last year. With soybean taxes rising from 26% to 33%, and soymeal and soyoil rates going to 31%, this preemptive surge could slow sharply next month.

Datagro’s updated forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 corn and soybean crops lifted the market outlook. Corn is now seen at 134 million tons and soybeans at 173.5 million tons, reflecting steady yield potential and global competitiveness for South American supply.

The International Grains Council raised its estimate for global grain ending stocks in the 2025/26 season to 586 million tons. Increases were noted for rice, wheat, and soybeans, though corn stocks were revised down by 2 million tons, underscoring a tighter balance for that commodity.

The European Commission increased its 2025/26 grain production forecast to 282.9 million tons, revising upward its estimates for wheat, corn, and barley. While optimistic, these projections may face revision if the current heatwaves in parts of Western Europe intensify.

The USDA reported drought conditions for the week ending June 24 showed slight improvements in U.S. corn and soybean areas. However, 25% of spring wheat crops are now under drought, a three-point increase from the previous week, suggesting mixed progress across commodities.

U.S. Mississippi River barge traffic picked up for the week ending June 21, with soybean shipments rising 10.4% week-over-week. Corn shipments dipped slightly. Freight rates in St. Louis climbed to $13.33 per short ton, indicating stronger demand for transport despite volatile commodity pricing.

Weather updates continued to influence outlooks globally. Argentina is experiencing beneficial dry conditions for harvest and wheat planting, though frosts remain a concern. Brazil saw early-week frosts in São Paulo, while North America faces varied rain events that are aiding crop development but delaying wheat harvests in some areas.

Europe remains in a vulnerable state, with forecasts indicating that a widespread hot and dry weather pattern will persist. This raises stress on corn and spring crops, particularly in regions that missed recent rainfall. Rain is not expected to return until late next week and may be scattered.

In livestock news, the U.S. hog herd rose slightly year-over-year to 75.14 million head. Increased pigs per litter and a higher slaughter count suggest growing feed demand, though implications for corn and soybean usage will depend on broader demand trends and potential policy shifts.