Wheat

Wheat markets closed lower on Thursday as global supply strength continued to pressure prices. The July 2025 Chicago SRW contract settled at $5.24¾ per bushel, down 2½ cents from the prior session. While Egypt’s GASC delivered support through a major international tender this week, broader demand remains sluggish. In the U.S., the HRW harvest is progressing quickly—now at 40% complete—though sporadic rains and elevated humidity levels could slow the pace in the Midwest and Plains. Russian wheat remains aggressively priced under $200 per ton FOB, targeting Southeast Asia and Middle Eastern buyers. Although this pricing creates competitive tension, it simultaneously weighs on overall market sentiment.

Corn

Corn futures continued to slide on Thursday, with the July 2025 contract closing at $4.06¾ per bushel, 3¼ cents lower on the day. Despite a flash sale of 1.145 million metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, traders remained cautious. U.S. weather remains favorable, fueling expectations of a strong crop, while Brazil’s mammoth second corn crop—estimated by Agroconsult at 150.3 million tons—is keeping pressure on global values. In Ukraine, frost-damaged corn areas are tightening domestic availability and nudging prices higher. Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol production fell for the second week in a row, highlighting weak demand in the biofuel sector and adding a bearish undertone to trading.

Soybeans

Soybean futures held steady on Thursday, with the July 2025 contract closing unchanged at $10.25¼ per bushel. Traders remained in a holding pattern ahead of the USDA’s Acreage and Export Sales reports. U.S. demand for soybeans and soymeal is underperforming, while Brazil continues to dominate the export market, with June shipments projected at 14.99 million tons. Rain across the U.S. Midwest has eased crop stress, reducing support for prices. As volatility in the crude oil market persists, soyoil continues to face downward pressure. Market participants are wary, reflected in declining open interest and cautious positioning.

Key Global Headlines Influencing the Grain Market

Brazil's corn dominance is setting the tone for international trade. The 2024/25 second crop, now forecast at 150.3 million tons, is breaking records and crowding out U.S. exports. With 44.5 million tons expected for shipment, the global market is flooded, creating price drag across regions.

Russian wheat markets continue to offer deep discounts. Wheat with 12.5% protein has fallen below the $200/ton FOB threshold, a signal of both high availability and subdued buyer interest. Despite this, Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets are showing renewed buying signals.

Ukraine’s corn outlook is showing signs of stress following frost events in the country’s northern and western regions. Prices for both old and new crop corn are firming as availability tightens. The first export deal of 10,000 tons to Libya was recorded for the 2024/25 season.

Ukrainian wheat exports maintain momentum. Prices for 11.5% protein wheat held firm between $207 and $212/ton FOB, with strong shipments continuing toward Egypt and Turkey. Competitive pricing has helped preserve export flows despite stiff Russian competition.

In Egypt, GASC’s recent purchase of 470,000 tons of wheat represents its most substantial single procurement in over a year. The diverse origin list—Romania, Russia, France, Bulgaria, and Germany—shows Cairo’s intent to hedge risks from volatile weather across its supplier base.

Rain in the North China Plain has improved soil moisture, lifting short-term crop prospects for both corn and soybeans. These favorable developments ease concern over weather-driven disruptions in one of the world’s largest agricultural markets.

The USDA’s upcoming Acreage report is expected to reaffirm a high planting figure: 95.4 million acres of corn and 83.5 million acres of soybeans. Wheat stocks may increase by 20%, reflecting a strong supply pipeline.

U.S. ethanol production dropped to 1.081 million barrels/day, the lowest level in four weeks. With inventories rising to 24.4 million barrels, concerns are growing about demand softness in the biofuel space, a key channel for corn usage.

Southern Europe is grappling with mounting drought pressure. As temperatures climb and soil moisture drops, risks to spring crop yields increase—particularly across Western and Central Europe. In contrast, Russia and Kazakhstan are enjoying more favorable conditions.

In the U.S., mixed weather patterns bring both promise and peril. Storms in North Dakota caused localized crop damage, while rain in Montana alleviated dry conditions. The Midwest remains waterlogged, slowing operations but aiding crop development.

Japan’s recent decision to remove all restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports is poised to increase soybean and corn demand for animal feed. This move reinforces Brazil’s stronghold in global feed grain trade.

Finally, political scrutiny in the U.S. livestock sector could lead to regulatory change. Senator Josh Hawley’s renewed call for competition reforms in the meatpacking industry may ripple across feed grain markets, especially corn and soybeans.