Wheat

Wheat futures opened Thursday’s session in Chicago under continued pressure, with the July 2025 SRW contract starting at $5.27¼ per bushel. The market remains weighed down by weak export demand, ample global supplies, and favorable harvest outlooks across the Northern Hemisphere. In the U.S., although the HRW wheat harvest is progressing rapidly with 40% completion—well ahead of the 5-year average—rainfall and high humidity in the Midwest and Plains could delay progress. Russia continues to exert downward pressure on prices, offering wheat with 12.5% protein at below $200/ton FOB, as traders rush to book volumes amid competitive global dynamics. Meanwhile, Egyptian and Turkish demand is providing some support, but the broader sentiment remains bearish.

Corn

The corn market opened Thursday with July 2025 contracts priced at $4.10 per bushel, continuing the downward trend. Despite support from overnight flash sales—1.145 million MT of U.S. corn sold to Mexico—prices remain subdued due to favorable weather in key U.S. growing regions and an oversupplied global market. Brazil’s corn crop continues to dominate headlines, with Agroconsult projecting a record-breaking 150.3 million tons. Brazilian corn remains aggressively priced, undercutting U.S. export competitiveness. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching for the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which are expected to confirm strong corn planting intentions and rising inventories. Ethanol production data also disappointed this week, adding further bearish sentiment.

Soybeans

The July 2025 soybean contract opened Thursday at $10.25¼ per bushel, holding steady after a steep sell-off in the previous session. Soybean futures are currently navigating through complex pressures: rising Brazilian exports, weakening U.S. demand, and a cautious investment environment. Despite high crude oil volatility, soymeal and soyoil markets remain soft. Brazil is on track to export 14.99 million tons of soybeans in June, reinforcing its dominance in global trade. Meanwhile, favorable weather across the Midwest has reduced stress on U.S. soybean crops. Open interest continues to fall as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key USDA reports and export sales data.

Global Developments Driving Market Sentiment

Brazil continues to capture attention with its oversized corn crop, now pegged at 150.3 million tons. With 44.5 million tons expected for export, U.S. corn faces stiff competition on the global stage. This imbalance is further reflected in weak export sales, even as Mexico steps in with a major purchase.

Russian wheat remains under aggressive pricing pressure, with 12.5% protein offers dropping below the critical $200/ton FOB threshold. Southeast Asia and Middle Eastern buyers are beginning to show interest, though the volume is still below expectations.

In Ukraine, the corn market is showing signs of tightening after frost damage in western and northern regions. Prices for both old and new crop corn are firming, and the first reported 2024/25 export shipment to Libya marks a key development.

The wheat export pace from Ukraine continues steadily, with volumes destined for Egypt and Turkey. FOB prices for 11.5% protein wheat remain in the $207–212/ton range, indicating competitive levels compared to Russian and European offers.

In Egypt, GASC’s latest tender saw the purchase of 470,000 tons of wheat—its largest in over a year. This diverse procurement includes volumes from Romania, France, Russia, Bulgaria, and Germany, reflecting Egypt’s strategy to hedge against supply disruptions from any single region.

Rainfall patterns in the North China Plain have improved considerably, restoring soil moisture and improving outlooks for corn and soybean crops. These changes mitigate weather-related risks in one of the world’s most grain-dependent regions.

The USDA’s upcoming Acreage report is projected to reaffirm strong corn planting at 95.4 million acres and soybeans at 83.5 million acres. Traders are also watching for a 20% increase in wheat stocks, signaling abundant supply.

U.S. ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels/day, the lowest in four weeks, while inventories climbed to 24.4 million barrels. This indicates reduced demand from the biofuels sector, a key outlet for U.S. corn.

In southern Europe, drought risks remain acute. Low soil moisture and rising temperatures threaten spring crops in Western and Central Europe, although conditions in Russia and Kazakhstan remain supportive.

In the U.S., mixed weather continues. Storms in North Dakota have caused localized damage, while rains in Montana have eased drought stress. Wet conditions in the Midwest are both a blessing and a challenge for crop timing.

Japan’s decision to lift all restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports could drive increased demand for soybeans and corn for feed use. This supports Brazil’s expanding role in the global livestock supply chain.

Lastly, the U.S. livestock sector is facing scrutiny. Senator Josh Hawley’s renewed push for reforms in the meatpacking industry could reshape agricultural policies and indirectly impact feed demand for grain.