Export momentum is accelerating in the Black Sea region as Romania anticipates a historic oilseed harvest, Egypt diversifies its import sources, and Bulgaria lays the foundation for increased biodiesel consumption. Strategic shifts in production and trade dynamics continue to reshape the outlook for the broader grain market.
Romania: Record Oilseed Acreage Amid Yield Uncertainty
Romania is poised to make a significant impact on the oilseed segment this season. For the 2025/26 marketing year, official statistics indicate rapeseed sowings have reached 703,000 hectares—well above the five-year average of 490,000 hectares. However, industry insiders estimate that the actual figure may be closer to 800,000 or even 1 million hectares. This could result in the largest rapeseed crop Romania has ever produced. While the acreage boom is promising, analysts have expressed concerns regarding the moderate use of fertilizers during planting, which could limit potential yields. Harvesting has already begun in southern Romania, suggesting a dynamic and early campaign.
The outlook for sunflower seed production is also optimistic. Favorable spring weather has led to improved crop conditions, and current yield estimates are about 7% above the five-year average. Projections for total output range as high as 2.9 million tons—an increase of nearly 50% from last season’s disappointing harvest. Despite lingering logistical challenges, Romanian sunflower seeds remain among the cheapest origins in the European market, further reinforcing their competitiveness.
Romania’s barley harvest is moving ahead steadily, with yields between 5.5 and 6.2 tons per hectare. If these results are sustained nationwide, they would represent an improvement over last year. Export flows are gradually accelerating, with shipments heading toward Middle Eastern and North African destinations.
Bulgaria: Biodiesel Demand Fuels Soybean Interest
In Bulgaria, soybean cultivation is experiencing modest growth, supported by increasing domestic demand linked to biodiesel production. Current soybean areas have expanded to around 140,000 hectares, compared to the five-year average of 122,000 hectares. More notably, biodiesel consumption is projected to rise due to a government proposal requiring fuel distributors to increase their biodiesel share from 7% to 10%. If enacted, this regulation is expected to come into effect by the end of 2025, thereby enhancing long-term demand for oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseed.
The wheat sector in Bulgaria remains closely watched as the harvest draws near. Current yield expectations hover around 5.7 tons per hectare—slightly above average. However, localized concerns persist about grain quality, especially test weight, due to sporadic rains and fluctuations in temperature. Market sentiment is currently mixed, as traders assess both the quality of the new crop and potential export demand.
Black Sea Export Trends and Competitive Dynamics
In Ukraine, trade activity has been somewhat muted in recent days. Farmers and traders are still evaluating the full impact of last week’s frosts on corn fields in western and northern parts of the country. This weather-related uncertainty has led to firmer pricing for both old and new crop corn. The first signs of 2024/25 corn exports have emerged, with 10,000 tons booked for delivery to Libya. Ukrainian wheat continues to move actively toward traditional destinations like Egypt and Turkey, and recent trades have priced 11.5% protein wheat between $207 and $212 per ton FOB.
Russia’s wheat market remains under pressure as sellers compete for limited demand. In the southern regions, offers for 12.5% protein wheat have dipped below $200 per ton FOB, reflecting ample availability and slow shipment activity. However, some export opportunities are materializing in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. With large quantities of wheat in stock and minimal sales booked for the next few weeks, Russian traders are prioritizing volume and quick execution.
Egypt: Diversifying Imports While Monitoring Weather
Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC has turned increasingly active in global markets, sourcing wheat from a broader range of origins. In a recent international tender, the agency booked 470,000 tons of wheat—its largest volume in a single purchase in over a year. The order included significant volumes from Romania, Russia, and France, as well as new offers from Bulgaria and Germany. Price levels ranged between $236 and $243 per ton FOB, depending on origin. Egypt’s import strategy reflects a deliberate shift toward diversifying suppliers amid ongoing concerns about weather impacts in key producing regions.
Despite these efforts, Egypt is closely monitoring rainfall patterns and temperatures, especially in central and northern governorates. Any deviation from seasonal norms could affect domestic crop production and future import needs. The market continues to respond cautiously to weather updates, both within Egypt and in its key supplier regions.