WHEAT

Wheat markets suffered notable losses across all three major exchanges on Monday. The July 2025 CBOT Wheat contract closed at $5.52 ¾ per bushel, down 15 cents. KC HRW wheat declined by 13–14 cents, while MPLS spring wheat was lower by 11–13 cents. The USDA’s weekly crop progress showed only 19% of winter wheat harvested, lagging the 28% five-year average. Crop conditions deteriorated, falling to 49% good/excellent. Spring wheat ratings also dropped. Export inspections were disappointing at just 254,782 MT, down 26% from last year. On the global front, Russia's expected wheat output has been revised upward to 84.8 MMT. Speculative traders slightly reduced their net short positions in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts.

CORN

Corn futures also retreated, with the July 2025 contract finishing at $4.19 ¼ per bushel, a drop of 9 ½ cents. USDA crop progress data showed that 97% of the crop has emerged, with 4% already silking. However, crop condition ratings fell to 70% good/excellent, below trader expectations. Export inspections remained solid at 1.48 MMT, though lower than the previous week. Managed money funds increased their net short positions, a bearish indicator. In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest lags behind last year, with only 13% completed. Prices in Brazil continued to fall due to strong expected output and storage limitations, even as the currency depreciated against the dollar.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were also under pressure, with the July 2025 contract closing at $10.58 ¾ per bushel, down 9 ¼ cents. Soymeal and soyoil followed suit, reflecting weak crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East. The soybean planting pace hit 96%, slightly below the five-year average. Crop conditions held steady at 66% good/excellent. Export inspections were notably weak at 192,890 MT — a marketing year low. Despite bearish fundamentals, speculators expanded their net long positions. Brazilian soy prices were supported by international trends, though weak local demand kept premiums under pressure.

Global Grain Market Developments

The U.S. Court of Appeals allowed the Biden-era biofuel rule to remain in effect but flagged the EPA’s climate analysis as arbitrary, requiring a review. This could eventually affect corn and soybean demand for biofuels.

Severe weather continued in the Northern Plains, with wind damage near-derecho levels in North Dakota. The Central and Southern Plains saw more scattered showers, aiding some crops but threatening others. In the Midwest, heat was both beneficial and damaging depending on moisture levels, while rainstorms are forecasted for the coming days.

Brazil’s weather remains a concern. Rain persists in southern corn areas, now delaying harvest. The front has moved north, affecting central regions. Frost threats this week could damage sensitive crops like citrus and coffee.

Argentina remained mostly dry, with frost forecasts having little impact on corn, soybeans, or wheat. In the Canadian Prairies, rainfall helped drought-stricken regions, but overall soil moisture remains low.

In Europe, dry and hot conditions persisted, aiding harvest in some areas but stressing corn crops. Only scattered showers are expected, with above-average temperatures continuing.

Black Sea crop stress remains a concern. Rainfall is uneven, benefiting some corn-growing areas but arriving too late for wheat. Cooler weather may help reduce damage.

Australian winter wheat and canola need more rain. Recent rainfall in the west did not translate well into eastern areas, where drought lingers.

China is expected to receive showers this week in dry northern regions, which would benefit corn and soybean development. Southern regions continue to experience monsoon rains.

India’s soyoil imports are down 18% due to congestion at Kandla port, potentially tightening domestic supplies and lifting prices. The situation is further strained by heavy demurrage costs and delayed unloading.

Ukraine’s grain exports fell 19% year-on-year to 40 million tons, including sharp declines in wheat and corn shipments. The ongoing war continues to impair the country’s agricultural logistics.

USDA data revealed strong U.S. corn and soybean sales last week, with Mexico leading for soybeans and Japan for corn. Pork and beef exports were also robust, especially to Mexico and Japan.

Paraguay reported nearly 10 million tons in soy production for 2025, down from last year’s record. Soy exports have been slow, and the second corn crop is still developing.

Russia and Bahrain are planning a wheat export hub, potentially boosting Russian global export influence. Meanwhile, Iraq reported its wheat reserves are sufficient for six months, easing short-term food security concerns.

Cargill acquired a soy crushing plant in Bahia, Brazil, expanding its footprint and processing capabilities. The acquisition aligns with its long-term growth strategy and enhances service to both domestic and global markets.

In the U.S., the USDA is developing a poultry vaccine plan for bird flu. While egg and turkey farmers support vaccination, meat producers are concerned about potential export bans. The government aims to finalize the strategy by July.

Finally, U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices jumped 15.7% last week due to rising natural gas costs. This could increase input costs for corn and wheat producers if the trend persists. Meanwhile, beef and pork production dropped slightly compared to the previous week, continuing a year-to-date decline.