Wheat

Wheat markets opened Friday on a softer note after surging earlier in the week. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed Thursday at $5.74¼ per bushel, up 25¼ cents. This strength stemmed from aggressive short covering and dry conditions in key global regions. However, early Friday saw a slight pullback, with SRW futures slipping 2¾ cents. In Russia, drought declarations continue to spread in key production areas like Krasnodar and Rostov, while France’s crop rating dipped to 68% good/excellent. U.S. weather has been dry in the Southern Plains, with limited rainfall expected. Export sales data for the week ending June 12 is anticipated to show 300,000 to 600,000 MT in sales for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Corn

Corn posted modest gains to start Friday, continuing its upward trend from midweek. The July 2025 contract settled at $4.33½ per bushel, gaining 2 cents. Support came from a combination of technical short-covering and anticipation of export sales. Estimates suggest between 600,000 and 1.2 million MT were booked for 2024/25, with minimal new crop sales expected. U.S. ethanol production dipped slightly to 1.109 million barrels per day, while ethanol stocks rose to 24.12 million barrels. Weather outlooks indicate heavy rain for parts of the northern Midwest, with the Eastern Corn Belt expected to experience intense heat, potentially stressing crops.

Soybeans

Soybean prices edged higher with the July 2025 contract closing at $10.74¾ per bushel, up ¾ cent. The market responded to strong Chinese import data and expectations of decent U.S. export sales. USDA's weekly report is expected to show 0 to 400,000 MT of old crop and up to 200,000 MT of new crop sales. China imported a record 12.11 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil in May, up 37.5% year-over-year, and 1.63 million tons from the U.S., up 28.3%. Soymeal and soyoil markets were mixed. Overall, strong demand and tight global stocks are supporting soy complex prices.

Key Global Developments and Market Movers

Iraq has significantly boosted its domestic flour production with the opening of a 1-million-ton capacity milling plant in Babel province. The Etihad Food Industries facility is expected to cut annual imports by $750 million, reshaping local grain demand dynamics.

Dry weather persists across the U.S. Plains and Europe, intensifying yield concerns. Russian wheat-growing regions are facing increasing drought declarations, and France's wheat crop rating is falling. Meanwhile, warm temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S., adding stress to crops and supporting prices.

Argentina’s corn harvest is halfway complete, with yields exceeding expectations in several regions. Soybean harvest is 96.5% finished, and wheat planting progress is strong due to favorable soil moisture.

Ukraine has begun its 2025 grain harvest, reporting an early 34,800 tons of barley and peas. However, yields are lower compared to last year, and the government warns that adverse weather could reduce total grain output by 10%.

Russia's agriculture minister forecasts a 90 million metric ton wheat crop for 2025, with exports expected to hit 45 million tons. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, this positions Russia as a dominant global supplier.

China recorded a historic high in soybean imports in May—nearly 14 million metric tons—thanks to recovering logistics and crushing margins. While Brazil remains the top supplier, U.S. shipments also rose sharply. China's demand outlook remains bullish for Q3.

India is revamping its seeds and pesticide regulations to improve agricultural quality and traceability. At the same time, Indian rapeseed meal exports are booming, particularly to China, which is diversifying away from Canadian imports due to retaliatory tariffs.

Cargill’s acquisition of a soy crushing and refining plant in Brazil’s Bahia state reflects a strategic expansion to boost supply of soymeal to global markets. This comes amid strong demand and rising investment in Brazil’s agri-industrial sector.

Brazil has declared itself free from bird flu, paving the way for resumed poultry exports. With over a third of global chicken exports, this status is key for maintaining competitiveness in markets like China and the EU.

U.S. ethanol production saw a minor decline, while ethanol blending credits rose in May, contrasting with a drop in biodiesel credits. This divergence may impact biofuel pricing and demand in the coming months.

Finally, barge grain shipments on the Mississippi River increased modestly, with soybean shipments up over 80% week-on-week. Rising river traffic reflects stronger downstream demand and easing logistical pressures.