Wheat

Wheat futures closed modestly higher on Wednesday, with the Chicago July 2025 SRW contract settling at $5.46¾ per bushel, up 4¼ cents from Tuesday. Markets responded to persistent drought conditions in southern Russia, especially in the Rostov region, where emergency declarations have been issued. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat harvest progress remains slow at just 10%, although the crop is 93% headed. Quality indicators dropped to 52% rated good-to-excellent, and spring wheat held at 57% good/excellent. Additional bullish sentiment stemmed from France’s slight reduction in soft wheat sowing and Romania’s expectation of a record wheat harvest, underlining shifting dynamics in global export competition.

Corn

Corn posted moderate gains, with the July 2025 contract ending the session at $4.39½ per bushel, up 1¾ cents from the previous day. While U.S. growing conditions remain favorable—94% emergence and 72% of the crop rated good/excellent—traders remained alert to weather concerns in other key regions. Brazil's second corn crop continues to face harvest delays due to lingering humidity, especially in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, where just 5.2% had been harvested by June 12. Export data offered mild support as U.S. inspections totaled 1.673 million metric tons, still 21% higher year-over-year, with Japan as the top importer.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended Wednesday with modest gains, as the July 2025 contract settled at $10.73¼ per bushel, up 2 cents from Tuesday. Weak export activity remained a drag, with weekly U.S. inspections sharply lower at 215,803 metric tons, a 61% weekly drop. Germany led import destinations, though overall demand remained muted. Crop condition ratings dropped to 66% good/excellent and planting progress stood at 93%, slightly below the five-year average. Nonetheless, soybeans found support in related markets: U.S. soybean oil stocks tightened and Indonesia reported a 43.3% surge in palm oil exports, helping lift sentiment in the broader vegetable oil complex.

Key Developments Influencing Global Grain Markets – June 18, 2025

Romania remains on course to become Europe’s largest wheat exporter once again, with projections indicating a harvest of 12.2 million tons, the highest since 1997. Favorable late-stage weather has reinforced yield expectations, and CME is reportedly evaluating new Black Sea grain contracts linked to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, signaling growing strategic importance for the region.

The USDA’s recent crop progress report painted a mixed landscape. While corn and soybean crops showed improved ratings, winter wheat deteriorated further. Export inspection data fell short across all major crops, particularly soybeans. Despite May crush volumes hitting a monthly record, weak soymeal demand and rising inventories curbed market enthusiasm.

Russian wheat continues to trade under pressure, with new crop FOB prices dropping to the $222–$229/ton range. This decline aligns with the beginning of the harvest and an upgraded national output forecast of 82.8 million tons. However, drought-stricken southern areas, particularly around Rostov, remain a critical uncertainty for final yields.

In South America, Brazil’s second corn crop harvest lags considerably due to persistent moisture in key states. With only a small fraction harvested, the season is trailing last year’s pace, and while some drier weather is forecast for Mato Grosso, overall progress is expected to remain sluggish and affect export schedules.

Global wheat supply is projected to tighten slightly, with LSEG lowering its 2025/26 production forecast to 796.44 million metric tons. Although this is below demand expectations, high carryover stocks are likely to soften the supply gap. Nonetheless, early harvest momentum and good weather in Northern Hemisphere producers are suppressing prices.

Corn trade flows face uncertainty as the market juggles strong U.S. fundamentals against weather volatility in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Additionally, ongoing EU-Ukraine negotiations over agricultural import quotas and revived U.S.–China trade discussions are expected to significantly influence global market sentiment.

Soybean market participants remain fixated on the upcoming USDA acreage report and potential EPA biofuel policy shifts. While domestic meal demand has slumped and exports remain soft, tightening oil stocks and robust demand from Asian buyers are supporting the soyoil segment, helping stabilize broader price levels.

Ukraine continues to grapple with adverse growing conditions. Winter grain yields are expected to fall below the five-year average due to dryness and reduced planting areas. Rapeseed production could rise, but corn and sunflower acreage continues to shrink, exacerbating supply-side pressure in the region.

Controversy surrounds Ukraine’s new proposal to impose export duties on rapeseed and soybeans. The plan, intended to encourage domestic processing and value addition, has sparked opposition from farmer groups who warn it could damage revenues and undermine existing trade partnerships.

In China, the regulatory approval of Bunge’s acquisition of Viterra was accompanied by stringent conditions, including mandatory pricing transparency and reporting obligations. This reflects China’s increasing scrutiny of major agribusiness mergers amid concerns over fair pricing and food security.

India’s delayed monsoon has resumed, and meteorologists expect stronger rainfall through the rest of June. This should provide a timely boost for planting across key grain-producing regions, particularly for rice and pulses, supporting overall agricultural output.

Indonesia’s strong palm oil export performance in May, with volumes jumping over 43%, is expected to influence the global vegetable oil market. The surge in palm oil trade may further lift soybean oil prices and shift crush dynamics in exporting countries such as the U.S. and Brazil.

France revised its estimates for winter barley and rapeseed production upward thanks to better-than-expected yields. Although soft wheat acreage fell just shy of earlier projections, the total area remains significantly higher than last year, securing a positive outlook for French cereal output.