Wheat

Wheat futures ended Tuesday with moderate gains, as the July 2025 Chicago SRW contract closed at $5.42½ per bushel, up 5½ cents from Monday. Market sentiment was supported by tightening export prospects from Russia amid reports of drought emergencies in the Rostov region and modest planting area reductions in France. In the U.S., winter wheat harvest progress remained slow at 10% completed, while condition ratings dropped to 52% good-to-excellent. Meanwhile, spring wheat showed a more promising outlook, with 57% of the crop rated good/excellent. Weekly export inspections reached 388,752 metric tons, with Nigeria as the leading destination, signaling some international demand recovery.

Corn

Corn rebounded slightly, with the July 2025 contract settling at $4.37¾ per bushel, up 3 cents on the day. This follows a sharp decline on Monday, driven by bearish sentiment from strong U.S. crop conditions and lackluster export signals. USDA data indicated corn emergence at 94%, consistent with the five-year average, while condition ratings rose to 72% good/excellent. Export inspections fell slightly to 1.673 million metric tons, though remained 21% higher year-over-year, with Japan as the primary buyer. Concerns linger around summer weather volatility in the U.S., southeastern Europe, and Ukraine, as heat and dryness could stress crops during critical development stages.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed the session nearly unchanged, with the July 2025 contract ending at $10.71¼ per bushel, up just 1½ cents. While strength in the soyoil market and a drop in oil stocks lent support, weak soymeal prices and disappointing May crush data kept gains limited. Soybean planting progress reached 93%, slightly behind the five-year average, while crop conditions fell to 66% good/excellent. Weekly export inspections came in at a subdued 215,803 metric tons, down 61% from the prior week, with Germany topping the import list. Market attention remains fixed on weather developments and the upcoming USDA acreage report, along with policy shifts in biofuels that could reshape future demand.

Key Developments Influencing Global Grain Markets – June 17, 2025

Romania is once again positioned to lead Europe’s wheat export rankings, anticipating its largest harvest since 1997. Projections for the 2025–26 season stand at 12.2 million tons, with strong yields expected due to favorable weather in the final development phase. This reinforces Romania’s growing strategic role in the Black Sea grain corridor, particularly as CME eyes new contracts linked to Romanian and Bulgarian ports.

In the U.S., the USDA’s latest crop progress report painted a mixed picture. While corn and soybean ratings improved modestly, winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate. Export inspections for all three major crops fell below expectations, with soybean volumes especially weak. Despite a record May crush, soy margins are being squeezed by weak soymeal performance and inventory buildup, tempering market optimism.

Across the Black Sea, Russian wheat prices softened as harvests began and forecasts were upgraded. New crop FOB offers declined to $222–$229 per ton, and the national wheat output estimate was revised up to 82.8 million tons. Nonetheless, adverse drought conditions in southern regions, including Rostov, prompted emergency declarations, casting some uncertainty on final yields.

Brazil’s second corn harvest remains significantly delayed due to excess moisture in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. Only 5.2% of the crop had been harvested by June 12, well behind last year’s pace of 21%. While drier forecasts may improve progress in Mato Grosso, other key states are likely to face continued bottlenecks, affecting overall output.

The broader wheat supply outlook remains steady globally. LSEG now forecasts a slight decline in 2025/26 world production to 796.44 million metric tons. Although this trails projected demand, ample beginning stocks are expected to offset the gap. Early harvest momentum and improved weather in key Northern Hemisphere regions continue to pressure prices downward.

Corn markets are navigating a precarious global balance, with favorable conditions in North America countered by heat risks in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. The outcome of ongoing EU-Ukraine negotiations over import quotas and the recent revival of U.S.–China trade talks are critical variables that could influence global corn trade flows and sentiment.

The soybean complex is awaiting further clarity on U.S. weather and policy signals. The upcoming acreage report will guide supply expectations, while uncertainty persists around the EPA’s biofuel blending mandates for 2026–27. Weak domestic meal demand and lackluster exports are partially offset by tightening oil stocks and sustained Asian demand for soyoil.

In Ukraine, persistent drought and shrinking winter grain acreage are expected to reduce overall yields, despite a brief spell of favorable May weather. Rapeseed production is projected to increase, but corn and sunflower areas are shrinking, reflecting the challenging planting conditions and input cost pressures facing Ukrainian farmers.

Ukrainian policymakers have proposed new export duties on rapeseed and soybeans, aimed at encouraging domestic processing and added value. The measure excludes cooperatives and small farmers, but has met backlash from producer groups, who warn it could slash profitability and disrupt established trade relationships.

China’s green light for Bunge’s acquisition of Viterra came with strings attached. Regulatory conditions mandate transparency in pricing and data sharing, as Beijing seeks to preserve fair domestic prices and maintain secure crop supply chains. This move underscores China’s increasing oversight of multinational agri-commodity mergers.

The resumption of India’s monsoon rains has brought relief after an earlier pause. Meteorologists forecast accelerated precipitation in the second half of June, a positive development for the country’s key grain-producing belts. The favorable turn in weather is expected to support timely planting and crop emergence.

Indonesia’s palm oil exports surged by over 43% in May, driven by heightened demand from India, China, and the EU. The strong performance in palm oil could influence broader vegetable oil markets, adding upward pressure on soybean oil prices and potentially shifting crush economics in major producer countries.

Finally, France’s agriculture ministry raised its forecasts for winter barley and rapeseed production due to yield improvements. Although soft wheat sowing fell slightly below initial projections, the acreage remains well above last year’s levels, supporting a stable outlook for France’s major cereal crop output.