Wheat

Wheat markets began Tuesday’s trading with modest gains, with the July 2025 CBOT contract opening at $5.36½ per bushel, up 3¾ cents after closing down 7¼ cents on Monday. The downward pressure at the start of the week reflected improved weather outlooks and mixed USDA crop ratings. Winter wheat was reported as 93% headed, slightly above average, but harvest progress remained slow at just 10% completed. Condition ratings slipped to 52% good/excellent, a drop of 2% from the previous week. Meanwhile, spring wheat conditions improved, with 57% rated good/excellent. Weekly export inspections reached 388,752 MT, with Nigeria as the top destination. In Europe, France’s wheat planting area was slightly trimmed, adding mild support to market expectations.

Corn

Corn futures saw minor gains at the open on Tuesday, with July 2025 contracts starting the session at $4.34¾ per bushel, up ½ cent following a significant 9¾ cent drop the day before. Monday’s steep losses were driven by robust U.S. growing conditions and lackluster export data. The USDA crop progress report showed corn emergence at 94%, matching the five-year average, with condition ratings ticking up to 72% good/excellent. U.S. export inspections for corn reached 1.673 million metric tons, slightly down from the previous week, though still 21% higher year-on-year. Japan remained the top destination. Despite export strength, the market remains cautious due to a bearish short-term outlook and concerns about summer weather patterns.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened the day flat, with the July 2025 contract unchanged at $10.69¾ per bushel, later gaining 1½ cents in early trading. Monday’s session ended on a steady note, supported by strength in the soyoil market. However, soymeal futures faced pressure from the EPA’s biofuel blending announcement. Crop progress data revealed planting at 93% complete, slightly behind the five-year average, and crop condition ratings dropped to 66% good/excellent. Export inspections were notably lower at 215,803 MT, a 61% week-over-week decline, with Germany as the top importer. The latest NOPA data showed May’s crush at 192.83 million bushels, below expectations but still a record for the month. Soybean oil stocks declined significantly, lending some support to the broader complex.

Key Global Developments Driving Today’s Market Mood

Romania is poised to become Europe’s top wheat exporter again, expecting its largest wheat harvest since 1997. With an estimated 12.2 million tons for the 2025–26 season and favorable weather during final development stages, the country’s wheat market is gaining global relevance, especially as CME considers new Black Sea contracts referencing Romanian and Bulgarian ports.

In the United States, the latest USDA crop progress update painted a mixed picture. While corn and soybean conditions improved modestly, winter wheat ratings dropped. Harvest remains slow, and export inspections revealed subdued demand, particularly for soybeans. The soybean crush in May reached a record for that month, but fell short of expectations due to narrowing margins and excess soy products.

Across the Black Sea, Russian wheat export prices weakened last week due to the start of the harvesting season and improved yield forecasts. New crop FOB offers dipped to around $222–$229 per metric ton, while the national wheat crop forecast was raised to 82.8 million tons. However, parts of southern Russia, such as the Rostov region, are facing drought-related emergencies.

In South America, Brazil’s second corn harvest progressed slowly due to lingering humidity, especially in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. AgRural reports only 5.2% of the crop had been harvested by June 12, well behind last year’s 21%. Weather forecasts suggest drier conditions may help accelerate the pace in Mato Grosso, but delays are likely to persist elsewhere.

The global wheat supply outlook remains steady with LSEG forecasting a slight decline in 2025/26 production to 796.44 million metric tons. Although production lags behind expected global demand, beginning stocks are expected to bridge the gap. Price pressure persists amid early harvests and improved crop conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

The corn market continues to grapple with tight global supply expectations despite favorable weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Concerns persist over hot, dry conditions in the U.S., southeastern Europe, and Ukraine in July and August. Trade negotiations between the EU and Ukraine on agricultural import quotas and recent U.S.–China discussions add another layer of uncertainty to global corn trade.

In the soybean market, attention remains on U.S. weather conditions and the upcoming USDA acreage report. Early optimism about growing conditions has moderated concerns, but trade relations with China and potential changes to biofuel blending mandates remain influential factors.

Ukraine’s agricultural sector is bracing for weaker winter grain yields due to persistent dryness and reduced planting. Despite good weather in May, interregional variability and lower sown areas will likely drag output below the five-year average. Rapeseed output is set to rise, while corn and sunflower planting area declines are expected.

The Ukrainian government’s proposed export duties on rapeseed and soybeans drew sharp criticism from farmer groups and exporters, warning of potential sales drops and reduced profitability. The policy, which would exclude farmer and cooperative exports, is tied to broader efforts to boost domestic processing and value-added exports.

China approved Bunge’s acquisition of Viterra but imposed strict conditions to maintain fair crop prices and ensure reliable supply. The merger must report sales to Chinese regulators and uphold pricing transparency, highlighting growing scrutiny over market consolidation.

In India, the monsoon has resumed after stalling, offering hope for crop growth in the grain-producing regions. Weather officials forecast a quick spread of rains across the country, with above-average precipitation expected in the second half of June.

Indonesia’s palm oil exports surged 43.3% month-over-month in May, reflecting strong demand from key buyers like India, China, and the EU. This sharp rise could influence the vegetable oil market and indirectly impact soybean oil dynamics.

France’s agriculture ministry raised its estimates for winter barley and rapeseed production in 2025, driven by yield improvements. While soft wheat planting remains slightly below earlier estimates, it is still higher than last year, ensuring a stable outlook for key cereal crops.