The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened Wednesday with July 2025 wheat futures trading at $5.39, recovering slightly from recent losses. Corn contracts for July 2025 began the day at $4.43¾, up 5 cents overnight. Soybeans also inched higher, with July 2025 contracts opening at $10.62½ per bushel, showing modest strength supported by export optimism and easing geopolitical tensions.
Wheat
The wheat market showed signs of recovery early Wednesday after enduring a series of declines earlier in the week. On Tuesday, the July 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.34½, down 7½ cents. Pressure persisted across other major exchanges, with Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat futures also ending in the red. Open interest dropped sharply by over 10,000 contracts, reflecting bearish sentiment. Crop updates revealed mixed developments: strong gains in Nebraska and Texas winter wheat ratings were counterbalanced by deteriorations in Montana, Oregon, and Washington. The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress indicated significant improvement in spring wheat conditions in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Idaho, yet EU wheat export volumes remain well below last year’s pace. A small bullish note came from Taiwan’s purchase of 95,450 MT of U.S. wheat overnight, offering marginal support.
Corn
Corn opened Wednesday with a firmer tone following Tuesday’s modest recovery. July 2025 CBOT corn settled at $4.38¾ on Tuesday, up 5¼ cents, rebounding from seasonal lows. Preliminary open interest showed a large exodus of over 21,000 contracts, partly driven by the ongoing Goldman roll. Despite lagging planting progress in eastern U.S. states such as Indiana and Ohio, national crop conditions improved to 71% good/excellent. Analysts expect the USDA’s upcoming report to cut old crop U.S. ending stocks and revise new crop projections slightly downward. Brazil continues to influence sentiment, with ANEC raising its June corn export outlook to over 923,000 MT. Taiwan’s overnight purchase of 65,000 MT of Brazilian corn also helped support the market.
Soybeans
Soybean futures posted small gains on Tuesday and remained firm into Wednesday. The July 2025 contract closed at $10.57¾, up 1¾ cents, and gained another 4¾ cents in early trading. Despite minor planting delays in several Midwestern states, national condition ratings improved to 69% good/excellent. Soymeal was mixed, while soyoil prices showed moderate gains. Export momentum remains strong with Brazil’s ANEC increasing its June soybean forecast to 14.08 MMT, up 1.53 MMT from last week. In the U.S., weekly USDA inspections pointed to robust volumes, and a framework deal between the U.S. and China hinted at de-escalation in trade tensions, lifting optimism for future flows.
Key Global Grain Market Developments – June 11, 2025
Brazil is projected to consume a substantial portion of its near-record corn harvest domestically. The growing demand from animal feed producers and the expanding corn ethanol industry is expected to reduce Brazil’s presence in the export market, despite a projected crop size of 5 billion bushels.
The U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel markets are bracing for a drastic shift in trade flows. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a complete drop in biodiesel net imports by 2025, due to a revised tax credit under Section 45Z of the Inflation Reduction Act, which now favors domestic production over imports.
China has harvested nearly 75% of its summer wheat crop, amounting to 260 million mu, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The rapid pace supports stable domestic supply, although continued monitoring of quality and weather-related delays remains essential.
Palm oil markets are adjusting to a new price range of 3,800–4,200 ringgit/ton for the next six months. Analysts expect robust demand from India and China as price gaps with rival oils narrow. However, palm oil’s recent premium status may limit its competitiveness in regions like the EU.
In Europe, despite recent rain in Germany, Poland, and the UK, drought risks persist across the continent. EU-27+UK wheat production for 2025/26 remains at 145.3 MMT, with weather in Spain, France, and Italy continuing to challenge moisture levels and yield potential.
Russia’s 2025/26 wheat forecast holds steady at 80.6 MMT, thanks to favorable conditions in central areas, though drought in the Southern and North Caucasian Districts and an emergency declaration in Rostov region due to persistent dryness remain concerns.
The EU has exported 19.5 MMT of soft wheat so far this marketing year, a sharp 33% drop from the same period last year. Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria are the top buyers, reflecting weaker overall demand from other global regions.
Abiove reaffirmed its Brazilian soybean output forecast at 169.7 MMT and crushing forecast at 57.5 MMT. Export estimates for soybeans and soymeal remain robust, with June shipments expected to hit 14.08 MMT and 2.07 MMT respectively.
US ethanol output is projected to decline to 1.08 million barrels per day, per Bloomberg’s pre-EIA report consensus, with stockpiles slightly up to 24.49 million barrels. These levels suggest a stable but cautious energy outlook for grain-derived biofuels.
Drought conditions in Russia’s Rostov region have prompted a formal state of emergency. Officials cited both spring frost and worsening dryness as major obstacles for this year’s harvest, even as national expectations remain above last year’s total.
China is intervening to restrain pig supply in an effort to stabilize pork prices and mitigate deflation. These policies may reduce soybean and feed grain demand, indirectly affecting global soybean exporters like the U.S. and Brazil.
The soybean market continues to watch U.S.–China relations closely. A framework agreement was reached to ease bilateral trade tensions, though no tangible export breakthroughs have been confirmed. Markets are reacting cautiously but positively to the thaw in dialogue.