Wheat futures for July 2025 on the Chicago Board of Trade settled at $5.42 per bushel, dropping 12¾ cents on the day. Losses were seen across all major wheat classes, with SRW, HRW, and HRS all retreating by 11–13 cents. Despite improvements in U.S. crop ratings—up 2% to 54% good/excellent—harvest progress remains behind the seasonal average. Heavy rains in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas could further delay fieldwork. Global dynamics added weight as Ukraine revised its wheat forecast downward to 21.7 MMT, and Russia’s estimate dropped by 1.8 MMT to 82.8 MMT, yet market sentiment remained subdued due to weak U.S. export data, down 47.5% from last week.

Corn futures closed at $4.33½ per bushel, down 9 cents. While U.S. planting has nearly concluded at 97%, and crop condition improved to 71% good/excellent, the market still faced downward pressure. Weekly export inspections remained sluggish, with Mexico as the top buyer. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn forecast was slashed by 2.1 MMT to 24.9 MMT, and Brazil’s second crop is only 1.9% harvested. Domestic fundamentals remained strong, but the global oversupply narrative, along with lower export optimism, kept prices in check.

Soybean futures dipped slightly to $10.56 per bushel, down 1¼ cents. While planting progress and crop conditions were both ahead of the norm, and U.S. export inspections surged by 81.5% week-over-week, broader bearish forces prevailed. Record Chinese imports of 13.92 MMT in May and stable U.S. crush margins offered support, but price gains were capped by large Brazilian supplies, continued pressure in soy oil markets, and uncertain trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Key Global Grain Market Developments – June 9, 2025

The Missouri agriculture department has launched an investigation into a false press release regarding screwworm infestation that triggered panic in U.S. cattle markets. The hoax caused a sharp 2% dip in live cattle futures before partial recovery. Authorities are probing the potential market manipulation and its intent to incite agricultural sector volatility.

The U.S. grain export scene remained mixed. Corn shipments totaled 1.656 MMT, slightly higher than the prior week and up 23.5% from last year. Soybean exports saw a more dramatic boost with 547,040 MT moved, more than doubling the same week in 2024. However, wheat inspections plummeted to 290,957 MT, significantly below recent benchmarks.

Weather continues to play a disruptive role across North America. The Canadian Prairies remain parched, hampering spring wheat growth. The U.S. Central Plains saw isolated rain, with more on the way this week. Flood risks persist in Kansas and Oklahoma, further complicating harvest logistics.

In South America, Brazil’s corn prices remained under pressure as harvest of the second crop began and production is estimated to reach 99.8 MMT, 11% higher than last season. Meanwhile, soy exports remained strong at 14.09 MMT in May, up 4.9% year-over-year, helping maintain Brazil’s position as China’s leading supplier.

China’s customs data confirmed a record 13.92 MMT of soybeans imported in May, as buyers raced to lock in Brazilian supplies amidst trade uncertainty with the U.S. The surge highlights the intensifying shift in Chinese sourcing strategy amid ongoing tariff disputes.

Ukraine's grain production outlook has been further curtailed. The APK-Inform consultancy cut its forecast by 4.3%, pegging total grain output at 52.9 MMT for 2025, mostly due to lower corn and wheat yields. Exports are now projected at 38.5 MMT, 5.9% below previous estimates.

Crimea’s harvest campaign began early, with a target of 1.1 MMT—900,000 tons of wheat. This figure trails last year’s 1.5 MMT due to spring frosts. The inclusion of Crimea and other contested regions is a key point in Russia’s overall wheat production estimates, which vary between 127.6–138 MMT.

The FAO-AMIS report predicts global corn production to hit a record 1.26 billion tons in 2025–26, led by gains in the U.S., Brazil, and China. This outlook, though encouraging for supply stability, may contribute to ongoing bearish market trends.

Trade dynamics also evolved with Indonesia securing preferential terms under the EU’s deforestation law via CEPA agreements, potentially boosting palm oil and fishery exports.

In fertilizers, U.S. urea prices dropped 6.24%, continuing a month-long decline. Despite rising natural gas costs, ammonia and UAN nitrogen benchmarks also weakened, hinting at less cost pressure for farmers ahead of summer applications.

China approved soybean meal and rapeseed meal imports from Uruguay, expanding its portfolio of protein feed options amid a broader effort to diversify away from U.S. dependence.

Lastly, the ongoing bird flu surveillance in Brazil appears stable, with no new commercial farm cases reported. This may help preserve Brazil’s poultry export reputation as global buyers remain cautious.