Wheat opened Friday’s session in Chicago with the July 2025 CBOT contract priced at $5.45½ per bushel. While this marked a modest gain from the previous day’s close, the market sentiment remained fragile. Rains across southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas threaten to delay early harvest activity, tempering optimism. The USDA reported a net reduction in old-crop export sales and a five-week low in new-crop bookings, adding to bearish undertones. However, April wheat exports hit a four-year high at 2.198 MMT, partially cushioning the downturn. In Europe, FranceAgriMer downgraded France’s soft wheat crop condition by one percentage point, citing quality concerns.

Corn futures for July 2025 opened at $4.39½ per bushel, reflecting cautious strength from the previous day’s modest gain. Export sales reported a rebound in old-crop shipments, led by Mexico and South Korea, although new-crop bookings lagged behind. Despite strong April corn exports—up 21% year-over-year—the looming pressure from Brazil’s emerging supply and Argentina’s progressing harvest (43.8% completed) is holding prices in check. U.S. ethanol exports showed a decline from last year’s highs, further complicating the bullish outlook.

Soybeans began Friday with the July 2025 CBOT contract at $10.51¾ per bushel. This followed Thursday’s gains, spurred in part by a trade-focused phone call between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi. Despite the diplomatic optimism, export activity remained moderate, with Bangladesh emerging as the top buyer. Brazil’s May soybean shipments rose to 14.099 MMT, sustaining global supply pressure. Meanwhile, Argentina’s soybean harvest reached 88.7% completion, with higher-than-expected yields. The USDA also reported weak soybean meal and oil sales, further limiting the rally’s momentum.

Across the broader grain market, several key developments are influencing sentiment:

The UN FAO reported that global food prices fell in May, driven by declines in grains, vegetable oils, and sugar. Grain prices specifically dropped by 1.8%, with corn leading the downturn due to bumper harvests in Argentina and Brazil, and expectations of record output in the U.S. this year.

Weather patterns are playing a pivotal role. In the Northern and Central Plains of the U.S., rainfall is helping fill wheat and support developing corn and soybeans. However, overly wet conditions in the Midwest and Mississippi Delta are hindering fieldwork and planting progress. In the Canadian Prairies, the need for rain is acute, with drying conditions threatening germination.

South American developments are equally crucial. Brazil's corn exports in May were significantly lower year-over-year, and rain continues to affect corn fields in the south. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn and soybean harvests are progressing, but the wheat planting season is being slowed by dry weather. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange held steady its estimates: 50 MMT for soybeans and 49 MMT for corn.

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine completed spring sowing and is expected to produce 28.3 MMT of corn and 22.6 MMT of wheat. Recent rains have improved soil moisture and yield potential, though long-term dryness persists in parts of Russia. The FAO warned that global wheat stockpiles may fall to a four-year low, despite a projected rise in global wheat output to 800 MMT.

Export data from the U.S. showed strong weekly soybean, corn, and wheat sales, with Nigeria, Mexico, and Bangladesh leading purchases. Pork and beef exports also remained solid, with China and South Korea as top destinations. The Mississippi River grain shipping volumes increased week-over-week, although barge rates slightly declined.

China continues to push for a successful summer grain harvest. Vice Premier Liu Guozhong emphasized disaster preparedness and crop protection amid ongoing climatic risks. The country also authorized wheat and rye flour imports from Russia, aiming to bolster food security and diversify supply.

Brazil is navigating poultry trade headwinds due to an avian flu outbreak. Despite restrictions, industry leaders expressed confidence that export markets would soon reopen, supported by strong biosecurity protocols. The country also remains the top exporter of soybeans, soybean meal, and oil, reinforcing its strategic role in the grain market.

Lastly, global weather outlooks now suggest a rising probability of La Niña developing by autumn. This may bring drier conditions to Argentina, affecting winter wheat, while parts of Europe could face excessive rainfall during harvest. These potential shifts are being closely monitored as they could significantly affect global grain flows and prices.

In conclusion, Friday’s trading session reflects a market on edge—caught between strong underlying fundamentals, uncertain weather outlooks, and an increasingly complex geopolitical and trade landscape. As the weekend approaches, traders are likely to remain cautious, adjusting positions based on a volatile matrix of forecasts and announcements.