Wheat futures ended Tuesday’s session with mild pressure. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.39 per bushel, unchanged from the previous session after starting higher. Overnight weakness was attributed to improved U.S. crop conditions—83% of winter wheat was headed and 3% harvested, in line with seasonal averages. The USDA rated 52% of the crop as good to excellent, up from the previous week, while spring wheat reached 95% planted and emerged ahead of the five-year average. The market also balanced geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea with rising expectations of larger Australian output and stable Ukrainian supply. Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections stood at 552,910 metric tons, with South Korea and Indonesia leading buyers.

Corn closed with a small recovery after recent losses, with the July 2025 CBOT contract settling at $4.38¼ per bushel, up 1½ cents. Monday's losses had been driven by weak technical signals and reduced open interest. However, demand fundamentals remain supportive. Export inspections totaled 1.576 million metric tons, while ethanol usage for April reached a six-year high at 425.8 million bushels. The USDA noted planting at 93%, with 78% emerged and 69% of the crop rated good to excellent. Corn sentiment was also bolstered by Vietnamese deals to buy U.S. corn and reduced Ukrainian production estimates now at 26 million metric tons.

Soybeans closed slightly higher on Tuesday, with the July 2025 contract ending at $10.33½ per bushel, up 5 cents. The gain followed a drop of over 8 cents the previous day. Monday’s decline had been due to weak soymeal and soyoil performance despite strong U.S. crush data. April crush came in at 202.4 million bushels, 14% higher year-on-year. U.S. soybean planting advanced to 84%, with 63% emergence and 67% rated good to excellent. Although weekly inspections lagged last year’s pace, total exports remain 10.7% ahead year-to-date. Notably, buying interest remained strong from China, Bangladesh, and Mexico.

Vietnam continued expanding its agricultural ties with the U.S., signing agreements to purchase 900,000 tons of corn and 250,000 tons of dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS). The move signals Washington's push for diversified Asian markets and highlights Vietnam’s rise as a key corn importer. The country’s plan to eliminate tariffs on American products may enhance U.S. grain competitiveness in the region.

Brazil’s updated harvest outlook is influencing market projections. AgRural raised its 2024/25 corn estimate to 128.5 million tons, citing stronger-than-expected winter crop yields. StoneX went further, increasing its forecast to 134 million tons overall, with second-crop output at 106.1 million tons. Meanwhile, soybean production was revised upward to as much as 169 million tons. These adjustments reflect favorable harvest conditions and improved logistics.

Australia’s 2025/26 wheat output is projected to drop by 10% to 30.6 million tons due to persistent dryness. While this remains above the ten-year average, the country urgently needs rainfall, especially across southern New South Wales and parts of Western Australia. Production estimates for barley and canola were also lowered by 3% and 6%, respectively, amid similar conditions.

Egypt took a rare approach by buying French wheat directly via its new state-run buyer, Mostakbal Misr. The 180,000-ton purchase bypassed the usual GASC tender process. Despite initial hesitations over transparency and logistical capacity, the move could mark a strategic shift in Egypt’s procurement policy and expand its sourcing flexibility.

Morocco reported an increase of 9.4% in wheat imports over the past year, reaching 6.05 million tons. France and Russia led in soft wheat shipments, while Canada was the primary durum supplier. Corn imports also surged, with Brazil and Argentina as the main exporters. This trend reflects Morocco’s diversification amid domestic production risks.

Kazakhstan reported sowing progress at 81%, covering over 19 million hectares, including 14 million dedicated to grain crops. This marks an expansion of over 400,000 hectares year-on-year. The steady increase underscores Central Asia’s effort to boost agricultural output and reduce import reliance.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose sharply in May, up 13.2% month-on-month to 1.231 million tons, per AmSpec Agri. The increase fueled gains in Kuala Lumpur’s futures market, up 1.39% overnight. Improved buying from Asian importers supports palm oil’s recovery and steadies the broader vegetable oil complex, indirectly influencing soyoil prices.

The U.S. export market remains active. Corn led shipments last week with 1.576 million tons, followed by 268,000 tons of soybeans. Wheat also saw strong flows to Asia. Notably, China accounted for 65,000 tons of U.S. soybean purchases, while South Korea was a leading wheat buyer, showcasing diversified demand profiles.

Brazil confirmed that no bird flu was found at a commercial poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul, following earlier concerns. This development is crucial for the country’s poultry trade, especially with key markets like China and the EU, which had imposed temporary restrictions. The negative test results may pave the way for lifted bans and market normalization.

Wheat remains vulnerable to shifting supply expectations. While improved U.S. crop ratings and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea support prices, anticipated increases in Australian and Ukrainian output could offset bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, low liquidity in Brazil’s wheat spot market continues to pressure domestic prices despite ongoing planting progress.

As the week unfolds, market watchers will continue tracking global weather models, planting updates, and export trends, with an eye on critical development stages across the Northern Hemisphere.