Market Opening – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (Chicago, July 2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Wheat futures started Thursday slightly weaker. July 2025 CBOT wheat opened at $5.30 1/4 per bushel, reflecting a decline of 3/4 cent from the previous close. On Wednesday, wheat futures had held onto gains led by Minneapolis spring wheat due to poor crop condition ratings, with only 45% rated good or excellent—marking the weakest start since 1988. While Kansas City HRW futures posted marginal gains, Chicago SRW was firmer but modest. Russian wheat exports were forecasted by SovEcon to reach 40.8 MMT for 2025/26, a 1.1 MMT increase from earlier estimates, providing additional export supply context.

Corn

Corn opened Thursday at $4.51 per bushel, marking a continued bearish sentiment after dropping 8 1/2 cents at the Wednesday close. A combination of rain in the forecast, a relatively quiet news day, and expectations surrounding delayed ethanol data contributed to the market’s weakness. Increased open interest on Wednesday—up by nearly 8,000 contracts—signaled new speculative positioning. The national average cash price fell to $4.25. Tariff-related uncertainties stemming from a trade court ruling also added complexity to market direction.

Soybeans

Soybeans started Thursday’s session at $10.48 1/2 per bushel, down 2 3/4 cents in early trade after posting a sharp 14-cent loss on Wednesday. Market pressure stemmed from declining soymeal and soyoil values, as well as delayed export sales data due to the holiday week. Open interest increased by nearly 7,800 contracts, indicating new selling. Heavy rain in southern sections of the Eastern Corn Belt and Plains remains a concern. The cash price dropped over 13 cents, settling around $10.02 3/4.

Global Developments Shaping Grain Markets

A significant ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade declared that most of former President Trump’s global tariffs were unlawful, requiring reversal within 10 days. The administration has appealed the decision, but if upheld, this could shift global trade dynamics and reduce input costs tied to grain production and exports.

Weather continues to be the dominant driver of sentiment. Across North America, cool and dry conditions have prevailed, especially in the Midwest and Northern Plains, improving planting opportunities. However, spotty showers and cooler temperatures may slow crop development in certain regions. Heavier rain is expected next week, particularly across drought-hit areas of the Central Plains and the Midwest.

In South America, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest has begun at a slow pace. Recent heavy rainfall in southern Brazil raised frost concerns in Paraná and nearby regions, which could impact late-stage corn filling. Meanwhile, Argentina anticipates drier weather over the next several days, helping to recover harvest momentum after rain delays.

In Canada, wheat production was trimmed to 35.3 million tons, down 3% from prior forecasts, due to worsening soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Although planting remains ahead of schedule, analysts caution about dry forecasts through July that could hinder crop yields.

Conversely, U.S. wheat production has been revised upward to 53.6 million tons, supported by favorable May weather and improved winter wheat conditions. Heavy rains in the Dakotas restored soil moisture levels, which had been at multi-year lows, bolstering spring wheat outlooks.

In Europe, updated estimates show EU total grain production slightly reduced to 279.6 million tons. While soft wheat and barley forecasts were modestly increased, corn production was cut due to persistent dryness. Rainfall in France, the UK, and Germany remains below optimal, though next week could bring some relief.

Ukraine’s producers are optimistic about new wheat prices rising to $240/ton by September and $260/ton post-January. Despite a smaller forecasted wheat crop (21.8 million tons), favorable pricing could enhance competitiveness amid global supply tightness and regional weather concerns.

Argentina’s corn production was lowered marginally to 49 million tons after torrential rainfall delayed harvesting in key provinces. Forecasts now suggest drier weather, which may allow producers to resume and complete fieldwork more efficiently.

Malaysia, aiming to lead in sustainable transport fuels, set an ambitious target to achieve B30 biodiesel adoption in the transport sector by 2030. With 65.1% of palm oil cultivation already certified sustainable, this policy could indirectly support soyoil and related feedstock demand.

China will auction 2,300 metric tons of frozen beef and mutton on May 30 to stabilize domestic food reserves. While this is a livestock move, broader consumption patterns often affect feed grain trends.

Brazil’s agriculture ministry ruled out a suspected bird flu case in Tocantins, though 24 countries, including major buyers like China and the UAE, have already imposed restrictions on Brazilian chicken exports. The risk remains that a resurgence could affect feed demand globally, particularly for soymeal.

In India, a forecast for above-average monsoon rainfall offers a hopeful outlook for food inflation containment and agricultural productivity. This could lead to policy revisions, including potential changes in wheat and sugar export restrictions.

Finally, cooler and drier conditions in Argentina are expected to accelerate delayed soybean harvesting. With an estimated 49 million tons in production, the next few days will be critical in minimizing weather-related crop loss and maintaining supply chain flow for soymeal and soyoil exports.