Wheat

Wheat futures showed slight strength by the end of Wednesday, driven primarily by concerns over spring wheat conditions. July 2025 Chicago SRW wheat closed at $5.30 1/4 per bushel, up 1 3/4 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat led the gains, rising 5 to 7 cents, while Kansas City HRW saw marginal increases. Spring wheat planting progress was at 87%, but crop conditions were the poorest start since 1988, with only 45% rated good/excellent. Winter wheat was 75% headed, but also showed declining conditions at 50% G/E. The European Commission slightly raised its EU wheat production forecast to 126.6 MMT.

Corn

Corn futures ended the day lower, with July 2025 closing at $4.51 per bushel, a decline of 8 1/2 cents. Wet weather forecasts and a lack of major news weighed on sentiment. The crop is 87% planted and 67% emerged, with the first quality rating at 68% good/excellent—below trade expectations. Key Eastern U.S. states were lagging in planting. The ethanol production data was delayed, keeping some uncertainty in play.

Soybeans

Soybean futures were sharply lower on Wednesday, closing at $10.48 1/2 per bushel, down 14 cents. Both soymeal and soyoil futures declined, with cash bean prices also sliding. Planting progress stood at 76%, ahead of the 68% average but below expectations. Export sales data was delayed, adding to market uncertainty. Despite stronger domestic demand and resilient crush margins, the lack of fresh bullish drivers triggered a sell-off.

Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

In Brazil, fresh bird flu cases were detected in wild birds, with one potential outbreak under investigation on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul. While authorities stressed minimal commercial impact, Brazil’s role as the top chicken exporter means any escalation could influence global feed grain demand.

Futures markets reflected slight overnight wheat gains, modest firmness in corn, and a softening in soybeans. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.8%, supporting soyoil sentiment slightly.

Weather remains critical to market direction. North America faces cooler conditions for the next five days, followed by possible heavy rainfall. Argentina is seeing unseasonably cold weather, while China's North Plain remains dry. The Black Sea region is forecast to stay warm, adding stress to regional crops.

USDA export inspections for the week ending May 22 included 1.396 MMT of corn (down from 1.76 MMT the prior week), 195,000 tons of soybeans, and 562,000 tons of wheat—highlighting continued export activity, with Japan, Egypt, and South Korea as key destinations.

Brazil’s export outlook was revised downward by ANEC. May soybean exports are forecast at 14.03 MMT (vs. 14.52 MMT previously), and soymeal exports at 2.21 MMT (down from 2.36 MMT), due to logistics constraints and easing global demand.

EU wheat exports have dropped 34% year-on-year to 18.8 MMT as of May 25. Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria remain leading destinations. While barley exports also declined, corn imports are up 7%, signaling shifting trade flows in the region.

In Germany, wheat output is projected to rise 13.6% year-on-year to 21.01 MMT, and rapeseed production by 5.6%. However, these are slightly lower than earlier forecasts due to frost and spring drought. Corn and barley harvests are both expected to shrink due to adverse weather.

Russia's wheat production forecast was raised to 80.6 MMT after beneficial rainfall in the Volga and Northwestern regions. However, drought persists in the South and North Caucasus, keeping risks high for winter wheat yields.

Australia’s wheat planting area remains steady, but farmers are sowing more barley and less canola due to low prices and dry weather. Analysts expect a 2025/26 wheat crop of 30.3 MMT—well above the 10-year average, despite early season dryness in South Australia and Victoria.

In China, the soymeal market is facing volatility with the June–July period expected to bring price swings. Analysts highlight logistical fragility and global crop risks, though improved imports and resumed crushing could eventually pressure prices.

South Africa marginally cut its 2025 corn forecast by 0.1% to 14.6 MMT, still 14% above last year. The estimate for white corn was lowered by 1.4%, while yellow corn was revised up by 1.3%. Soybean projections remain at 2.3 MMT.

India reiterated expectations for above-normal monsoon rainfall, now confirmed at 106% of the long-term average. With an early onset of rains, there is optimism for strong harvests that could ease inflation and prompt the government to revisit wheat and sugar export policies.

Finally, China’s wheat-growing areas are expected to benefit from upcoming rainfall, potentially easing drought concerns. Nonetheless, heat stress lingers, and China has already increased wheat imports from Canada and Australia as a precaution.