Wheat

Wheat markets opened Friday with muted movement after retreating on Thursday. July 2025 CBOT wheat opened at $5.44¾ per bushel, just ¼ cent higher after closing Thursday down 4¾ cents. Chicago SRW futures had shed 3 to 5 cents in the prior session, while Kansas City HRW showed fractional movement and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 3 to 4 cents. Export sales data released Thursday indicated net reductions of 13,373 MT in old crop wheat, although new crop sales surged to 882,202 MT, the strongest since December 2023, with the Philippines, Japan, and unnamed buyers leading. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) held global wheat production steady at 806 MMT, but lifted stocks by 2 MMT to 262 MMT due to slightly lower consumption. In France, the wheat crop rated good-to-excellent slipped slightly to 71%.

Corn

Corn opened Friday lower, with July 2025 contracts at $4.60¾ per bushel, down 2¼ cents from the previous close of $4.63. On Thursday, front-month futures were up 2 cents while others slipped slightly, with open interest data suggesting short covering in July contracts. The USDA export sales report showed 1.19 MMT of corn sales for the week ending May 15—a 29% weekly drop but still 30.7% higher than the same week last year. Japan was the top buyer, followed by Mexico and Colombia. New crop sales reached 218,371 MT, with Colombia leading. Globally, the IGC raised its corn production forecast for 2025/26 by 3 MMT, pushing ending stocks to 284 MMT. Separately, Taiwan launched a tender for 65,000 MT of corn, with offers due next week.

Soybeans

Soybean futures started Friday lower after firming at Thursday’s close. July 2025 soybeans opened at $10.60¾ per bushel, down 6¾ cents from Thursday’s close of $10.67½. Gains on Thursday were supported by a strong performance in soymeal, which closed $3.10 to $4.60/ton higher. Weekly export sales came in at 307,939 MT for old crop soybeans, up 9% from the week prior and slightly ahead of the same week last year, with Mexico purchasing 134,100 MT. However, new crop sales totaled only 15,000 MT. According to the IGC, global soybean production remains unchanged at 428 MMT, while consumption rose by 2 MMT and stocks were revised down to 81 MMT. Soy oil futures, however, slipped slightly.

Key Global Market Drivers – May 24, 2025

Argentina is once again under weather stress, as heavy rains have delayed the planting of wheat and slowed down the harvest of soybeans and corn. Only 3.4% of the intended 6.7 million hectares of wheat has been planted, far behind both last year and the five-year average. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintained its forecasts—50 MMT for soybeans and 49 MMT for corn—but flagged risks of reductions if harvest delays persist. Flooding continues to complicate field access in Buenos Aires province.

In Russia, officials have confirmed that the impact of spring frosts was significantly reduced this year, affecting only 136,000 hectares—about eight times less than in 2024. Most of the affected land has already been replanted, easing earlier concerns over production disruptions.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are trailing last year’s pace. As of May 23, total grain exports for the season stood at 37.6 MMT, down 17% year-on-year. That includes 14.6 MMT of wheat (down 14%), 2.29 MMT of barley (down 3%), and 20 MMT of corn (down 21.4%). Exports for May so far total just 2.3 MMT—a 43% drop compared to the same period in 2024.

Weather forecasts point to elevated risks for U.S. crops heading into June. After a wet end to May, warm and dry conditions are expected to dominate the Plains and Corn Belt. Analysts warn this could quickly reverse recent improvements in soil moisture. The northern Plains may face excessive heat, threatening early crop development for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat, particularly in the Dakotas.

Soil moisture levels remain alarmingly low in parts of Eastern Europe, including Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic. Despite some rainfall in May, drought conditions persist, with soil moisture at six-year lows in several areas.

In Brazil, the safrinha corn crop is being tested as dryness persists across central and northern regions. While some rains are forecast next week in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, much of the second corn crop will rely on subsoil moisture for grain filling. Early harvest is expected to begin in the coming weeks, with yield concerns mounting in drier areas.

China has allocated 1.4 billion yuan ($194 million) in emergency relief funds to prevent crop losses from disasters. This aid targets 30 provinces and includes subsidies for pesticides, equipment, and disaster control services.

In the U.S., updated USDA data showed that drought conditions persist in 22% of corn-growing areas and 16% of soybean-producing areas, unchanged to slightly lower from the previous week. While recent rainfall offered temporary improvement, concerns are now shifting toward sustained dryness in early summer.

Transport and export infrastructure are faring better this week. Mississippi River barge shipments rose to 886,000 tons in the week ending May 17, up from 739,000 tons the week prior. Corn shipments led the gains with a 29% weekly increase. However, soybean barge shipments fell by 7.5%, and barge rates in St. Louis declined to $12.53 per short ton, easing logistical costs slightly.

Lastly, the International Grains Council’s monthly update revised global grain stockpiles upward by 5 MMT to 585 MMT, primarily due to improved wheat and corn expectations. Soybean and rice stocks were adjusted downward by 2 and 1 MMT, respectively, reflecting tighter supply dynamics in oilseed and rice markets.