Wheat

Chicago wheat for the September 2025 contract opened Monday’s session with SRW wheat up 3½ cents, HRW unchanged, and HRS wheat up 3¼ cents. Last week, wheat posted modest gains across the board, with SRW up 3 cents, HRW up 2¾ cents, and HRS up 3½ cents, although month-to-date SRW remains down 5¼ cents and HRW down 8 cents. Year-to-date performance reflects broader pressure on the market, with SRW down 5.8%, HRW down 7.1%, and HRS down 3.2%. Traders are weighing steady domestic conditions against global trade uncertainty and weather risks in key producing regions.

Corn

Corn for the September 2025 contract began the week up 2½ cents in Chicago, following a modest ½-cent gain last week. Month-to-date, corn prices remain under pressure, down 5¾ cents, with a sharp year-to-date drop of 16%. Despite weak recent performance, Monday’s slight uptick comes amid cautious optimism tied to export demand signals and weather monitoring in the U.S. Midwest. However, global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to limit upward momentum.

Soybeans

Chicago soybeans for the September 2025 contract surged 22 cents at Monday’s open, driven largely by political developments between the U.S. and China. This follows a 15¼-cent rise last week and a 20¼-cent increase month-to-date, though year-to-date soybeans remain down 3.2%. The rally reflects heightened speculation after U.S. President Donald Trump urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases ahead of a key tariff truce deadline, a move analysts doubt is feasible.

Key Global Market Drivers

Donald Trump’s late-night post on Truth Social urged China to increase U.S. soybean orders fourfold, sparking an immediate jump in soybean prices. While the statement generated bullish sentiment, market analysts swiftly questioned the feasibility of such a deal, given that last year China imported just 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. compared to 74.65 million tons from Brazil. Quadrupling U.S. imports would require a near-complete shift away from Brazilian supply, something traders see as improbable.

The looming August 12 deadline for the U.S.–China tariff truce is adding uncertainty, with the Trump administration hinting at a possible extension. It is unclear whether securing increased soybean purchases is a precondition for the extension. Chinese soymeal futures have fallen on expectations of higher U.S. imports, while Beijing signals it may avoid U.S. soybeans altogether this year, sourcing more from Argentina and other South American producers.

Malaysian palm oil prices climbed 3.03% to 4,384 ringgit overnight, supported by strong demand and concerns over supply tightness. The strength in palm oil is influencing vegetable oil markets globally, with soyoil futures also firming. Analysts note that the ongoing substitution effects between palm, canola, and soybean oil are likely to reverberate through the broader oilseed complex.

Weather continues to play a critical role in price direction. In the U.S., traders are closely monitoring conditions in the Midwest, where rainfall patterns will influence late-stage crop development. Canadian Prairies and Australian wheat belts are also under watch, with dryness threatening yield prospects in both regions. Market participants expect volatility to remain high as forecasts shift.

Black Sea developments are also in focus, with freight rates from the region to South China sharply lower than last year, reflecting weak Asian grain demand. However, renewed Chinese interest in Ukrainian barley, with over 300,000 tons already booked, signals potential demand recovery. Still, rising vessel availability and reduced shipments of other commodities are capping freight gains.

In Europe, prolonged rains are delaying the rapeseed harvest, although early reports suggest good yields and oil content. The European Commission has trimmed its harvest forecast to 18.5 million tons, which is still above last year’s output but below processing needs. Romania’s harvest is projected at 1.8 million tons, significantly higher than in 2024.

U.S. export sales data provided fresh momentum to markets, with wheat sales of 737,831 metric tons surpassing expectations, corn sales for the new crop reaching 3.16 million tons, and soybeans recording large bookings from multiple destinations including Taiwan, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Strong demand signals, especially for corn and wheat, are offering near-term price support.

Looking ahead, the USDA Crop Production report is expected to be the week’s major price driver. Updated yield and production estimates will shape short-term sentiment, while ongoing geopolitical tensions and weather risks maintain an underlying layer of uncertainty across global grain markets.