Wheat

Wheat futures pulled back on Thursday, snapping recent gains. July 2025 CBOT wheat closed at $5.44½ per bushel, down 4¾ cents. Chicago SRW contracts fell between 3 to 5 cents, while Kansas City HRW was fractionally mixed, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 3 to 4 cents. Export sales data disappointed, showing net reductions of 13,373 MT for the old crop, well below expectations. However, new crop wheat sales were strong at 882,202 MT, a marketing-year high, driven by demand from unknown destinations, the Philippines, and Japan. Global wheat production remains steady at 806 MMT according to the International Grains Council, though higher projected stocks (up 2 MMT) reflect reduced consumption estimates.

Corn

Corn markets showed slight upward momentum, with July 2025 contracts closing at $4.63 per bushel, up 2 cents on the day. Export sales for the week totaled 1.19 MMT, falling within the expected range but down 29% from the prior week. Still, sales were 30.7% higher than the same week a year ago, with Japan, Mexico, and Colombia as leading buyers. New crop corn sales reached 218,371 MT. According to the IGC, global corn production for 2025/26 was revised up 3 MMT, with ending stocks also increased to 284 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended the session stronger, reversing early losses. July 2025 soybean futures closed at $10.67½ per bushel, a 4¾ cent gain. Soymeal markets were solidly higher, helping lift the complex, even as soyoil closed lower. USDA reported 307,939 MT in old crop soybean sales, slightly above estimates and showing a 9% weekly increase. Mexico led buying activity. New crop soybean sales were below expectations at 15,000 MT. Soybean meal and oil also posted moderate sales. Global soybean production remains stable at 428 MMT, but the IGC lowered world stock projections by 2 MMT to 81 MMT.

Key Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

Cold weather in the northern U.S. continued to affect sowing activity on Thursday, with frosts reported in some regions. While soil moisture improved across the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies, crop development remains slow due to low temperatures. Warmer weather is expected next week, potentially accelerating field progress.

In the U.S. Central and Southern Plains, recent rainfall helped ease drought in Nebraska and western Kansas, but southwestern areas remain critically dry. Additional precipitation is forecast into the weekend, although uneven distribution could limit benefits.

The Midwest experienced continued rainfall, aiding soil conditions in drought-affected zones but delaying fieldwork in southern areas. Temperatures remained cool across much of the region, with slight frost risk in patchy zones. A warmer trend is expected into early June.

Flooding remained a concern across the Delta and Lower Mississippi, where spring has brought minimal dry periods. Soils are saturated, and cooler weather may increase disease risks. Heavy rains are again forecast over the weekend.

Argentina’s soybean harvest continued to suffer delays following heavy rains last week. Farmers face quality issues and pod-splitting risks. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange kept its output estimate at 50 MMT but warned that this could be revised downward. Dryer weather is finally arriving, aiding field access and preparing the ground for wheat planting.

In Brazil, the corn harvest outlook is improving despite ongoing dryness in central and northern areas. Agroconsult raised its national corn production estimate to 126.1 MMT, citing strong vegetative health in the Safrinha crop belt, particularly Mato Grosso and Goiás. However, dry weather could still reduce yields if it persists into June.

Global corn fundamentals also reflect rising supply. The IGC increased 2025/26 corn production projections and raised stock estimates. Meanwhile, Citi Research revised its U.S. demand outlook to a more neutral stance, supported by stronger-than-expected export demand and domestic ethanol use.

U.S. soybean production remains stable at 117 MMT, according to analysts. Planting progress is ahead of the five-year average, but concerns persist over long-term moisture levels, especially in Iowa and Illinois. Soil moisture in the core soy-producing states is at a six-year low, with heightened risk of heat and dryness forecasted for June to August.

India is poised for a record wheat harvest of 117 MMT, easing previous concerns about domestic shortages. The favorable outlook may encourage the government to lift its export ban, which could place renewed pressure on global wheat prices.

In Russia, SovEcon increased its 2025 wheat output forecast by 1.2 MMT to 81 MMT, citing improved weather conditions. However, Russian exports dropped significantly in May, down 63% year-on-year, with just 1.214 MMT shipped from May 1–20. The number of exporters and active ports also declined compared to the previous year.

Palm oil dynamics are also shifting. Indonesia’s April exports fell 32% month-on-month, with major declines to India and the EU. Only China posted a modest import increase. The broader downturn in the vegetable oil market may indirectly impact demand for soy oil.

Finally, regulatory tensions rose as the U.S. National Grain and Feed Association urged the CFTC to reject 24/7 futures trading proposals. They argue that continuous trading without synchronized cash markets could raise volatility and market manipulation risks. The debate has implications for market transparency and physical delivery dynamics.

Overall, grain markets are navigating a delicate balance of improving short-term fundamentals and long-term weather concerns, with volatility expected to persist into the summer.