Crop Opening Recap – July 2025 Contracts (Chicago)

Wheat

Wheat markets showed mild weakness early Thursday, with July 2025 CBOT wheat opening down 1¾ cents at $5.47½ per bushel, after closing Wednesday at $5.49¼. The market previously posted gains across all three U.S. exchanges, driven by short covering and bullish cues from weather uncertainties in the Southern Plains. Kansas City HRW gained 4–5 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat rose 6–7 cents. Export sales data expected today indicates 2024/25 business may be limited, with potential net reductions and only moderate new crop interest. SovEcon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 81 MMT, still below the USDA’s 83 MMT.

Corn

Corn futures began Thursday with fractional gains, with July 2025 contracts up ½ cent at $4.61½ per bushel, following a solid close of $4.61 the previous day. The market was supported by a rebound in ethanol output—now at 1.036 million bpd—and stockpile drawdowns, especially in the Midwest. Ethanol-related optimism is fueling stronger near-term sentiment. Export sales expectations range from 0.7 to 1.6 MMT for the old crop, while Brazil’s second crop is seen reaching a record 112.9 MMT according to Agroconsult, a figure notably higher than CONAB’s latest estimate.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened lower on Thursday, with July 2025 futures starting at $10.60¼ per bushel, down 2½ cents from the prior close of $10.62¾. Wednesday's gains had been supported by strength in soymeal and soyoil futures and improved export expectations. Rain is forecast across much of the Corn Belt over the coming week, with certain dry zones like ND, MN, and IA in need of moisture. Export sales for soybeans are expected to fall between 100,000 and 300,000 MT for the current crop and up to 400,000 MT for new season sales.

Global Market Drivers and Key Headlines

Weather remains a decisive factor across global grain-producing regions. In North America, persistent cold and periodic frosts in the northern U.S. may slow sowing over the next five days. Though moisture conditions have improved in the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies, cold temperatures are suppressing early growth. A shift toward warmer weather is expected by next week, potentially aiding recovery.

In the U.S. Central and Southern Plains, Nebraska and western Kansas have received much-needed rainfall, easing drought stress. However, southwestern areas continue to dry out. Another storm system is expected over the weekend, though precipitation distribution remains uncertain.

Across the Midwest, widespread rain continues to delay planting in saturated fields, especially in southern zones. Despite this, moisture accumulation is aiding soil conditions in drought-affected areas. A warming trend into early June may help resume field activity, though isolated frost risks still linger.

Conditions remain highly saturated across the Delta and Lower Mississippi region. Excessive spring rainfall has left many fields flooded, exacerbating disease pressure risks. Limited dry intervals have slowed fieldwork, and forecasts indicate additional heavy rain is possible into early next week.

In Brazil, variable weather patterns continue. Southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Parana may benefit from intermittent rainfall, which would support winter wheat and corn grain filling. However, dryness persists in central and northern areas, forcing second-crop corn (safrinha) to rely on diminishing subsoil moisture. Early harvest is expected to begin soon, though production quality may be uneven.

Argentina’s agricultural sector is still recovering from intense rainfall and flooding in its central belt. Although recent dryness is helping fields to dry out, concerns remain about soybean harvest delays and disease-related damage. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has maintained its output forecast at 50 MMT but warned that estimates may be cut if rains persist. Wheat planting for the 2025/26 cycle is about to begin, contingent on improving field conditions.

India is on track for a record wheat harvest, expected to reach 117 MMT, alleviating fears of import needs. Strong yields, bolstered by favorable weather and high-performing seed varieties, are prompting domestic millers to lobby for the lifting of export restrictions. If granted, India’s reentry into the global wheat trade could place downward pressure on prices.

In Russia, SovEcon revised upward its wheat production estimate by 1.2 MMT to 81 MMT. While recent rainfall helped, key regions like Rostov still suffer from subpar moisture levels. The export outlook, however, is less optimistic—May wheat shipments from Russia dropped 63% year-on-year, totaling just 1.214 MMT between May 1–20. Reduced port activity and fewer exporters contributed to the sharp decline.

Export dynamics also reflect declining palm oil trade. Indonesia’s April palm oil exports fell 32% from March, dropping to 1.384 MMT. Major markets including India and the EU cut purchases, though Chinese buying increased modestly. This decline adds to the volatility in the global vegetable oil sector and may affect soy oil demand indirectly.

Brazil’s corn outlook continues to receive mixed signals. High vegetation density across the Safrinha belt has slightly improved crop expectations to 126.1 MMT, despite declining soil moisture. Remote sensing data shows exceptional vegetative health across Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná, but dryness could begin affecting yields if no rain arrives in early June.

U.S. corn and soybean outlooks remain steady, although summer weather risks loom. USDA reports sowing is ahead of average—corn at 78% and soybeans at 66%—but long-term forecasts suggest heat and drought risks may intensify from June through August. Illinois and Iowa, key producers, are already facing alarmingly low soil moisture, raising flags for peak season development.

Corporate and regulatory news also influences sentiment. The National Grain and Feed Association urged the CFTC to reject proposals for 24/7 futures trading, citing risks of volatility and manipulation in the absence of aligned cash markets. The issue has sparked broader debate around transparency, risk disclosures, and trading fairness in agricultural futures.

In Brazil, preliminary tests have ruled out high-path bird flu in a commercial farm in Tocantins state, providing relief to the poultry export sector after recent trade concerns. Authorities are maintaining monitoring measures, while industry leaders lobby for more cold storage capacity at ports to manage inventory backlogs.

Overall, the grain market remains in a state of heightened alert, shaped by contrasting weather developments, evolving export dynamics, and macroeconomic shifts. Thursday’s session opened with moderate adjustments, reflecting caution ahead of USDA’s export sales report and fresh demand signals.