Crop Opening Recap – July 2025 Contracts (Chicago)

Wheat opened Wednesday’s trading at $5.46 per bushel, continuing a bullish trend driven by short covering and fresh buying activity across all three U.S. wheat exchanges. SRW contracts gained 17 cents on Tuesday, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also saw strong double-digit increases. The market remains supported by weather stress in Russia and warming conditions in Chinese wheat-growing regions. Despite improved conditions in some U.S. states like Kansas and South Dakota, winter wheat ratings nationally slipped to 52% good to excellent.

Corn futures began the day at $4.54½ per bushel, rising 7 cents in the previous session, aided by strength in the wheat complex and expectations for a rebound in ethanol production. Wet and cool conditions across the U.S. Midwest and parts of the Western Corn Belt are contributing to delays in planting, particularly in Ohio, where only 34% is completed. Meanwhile, Argentina will reinstate its higher corn export tax (from 9.5% to 12%) in July, ending a temporary relief measure that may reduce future competitiveness.

Soybeans started Wednesday’s session at $10.53 per bushel, up 2¼ cents on Tuesday and currently trading 8¼ cents higher. Gains were driven by stronger soymeal and soyoil markets, along with tightening South American dynamics. Brazil is now projected to export 14.52 MMT of soybeans in May, up slightly from last week’s forecast. However, China's April soybean imports from Brazil fell by 22.2% year-over-year, and U.S. volumes were down by nearly 44%. Argentina is set to revert to its 33% soybean export tax in July, up from the current 26%.

Key Developments Impacting the Global Grain Market

Cool and wet weather across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Canadian Prairies continues to improve soil moisture conditions while also delaying planting progress. Though some frost is possible, the risk is localized. Southern areas, especially the Delta, remain waterlogged, with ponding and flood-related challenges hampering fieldwork and elevating disease risk due to persistent cloud cover and low temperatures.

Forecasts for June suggest continued warmth and wetness in Western Europe, supporting wheat and rapeseed development. However, in the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine and southwestern Russia, the trend may shift toward hot and dry conditions. This could stress wheat crops during critical growth stages.

Severe weather in Russia's largest grain-producing region, Rostov, has triggered a formal state of emergency following spring frosts and ongoing drought. Wheat yields are expected to fall well below average, with some crops unable to recover due to shallow soil moisture. Rostov’s grain harvest fell 22% last year and may decline again in 2025. Two additional Russian regions—Voronezh and Belgorod—have also declared agricultural emergencies. The nation’s total wheat output is now projected at 81 MMT, still down from the 82.6 MMT figure from the previous year.

The European Union continues to lag in wheat exports, shipping 18.45 MMT as of May 18—down significantly from 27.89 MMT during the same period last year. Meanwhile, Argentina has extended its reduced wheat export tax (from 12% to 9.5%) through March 2026, giving global buyers continued incentives to purchase.

Soil conditions across Canada are improving with timely rainfall, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Cold temperatures have limited germination but are not seen as a major threat, and farmers are progressing well with planting. Another favorable window is forecast at the end of May.

In Brazil, heavy rains in the Pampas have disrupted corn and soybean harvests and caused localized crop damage. However, the rainfall has been positive for winter wheat planting. Central and northern areas remain dry, forcing second-crop corn to rely on residual subsoil moisture. In Argentina, floods have hit the central belt hard, delaying harvest and reducing quality, though some northern areas are benefiting from increased moisture for winter wheat.

In the U.S., attention turns to ethanol production figures due from the EIA, with analysts expecting a rebound to around 1.013 million barrels per day. Ethanol stockpiles are projected to slightly decline from 25.445 million barrels to 25.112 million.

On the corporate front, Bartlett Grain announced plans to acquire Ceres Global Ag for $4.50 per share in a cash deal, marking a 153% premium. The transaction has been approved by the board and supported by 70% of shareholders. If completed, it will result in Ceres delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Soy exports from Brazil continue to perform well, with projections for May reaching 14.52 MMT, up from last week’s 14.27 MMT. Soymeal exports are also edging higher at 2.36 MMT. These strong flows help to partially offset lower demand from China but keep South American supplies competitive globally.

Livestock dynamics could also affect feed grain demand. U.S. cattle-on-feed placements for April are expected to be down 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest since 2020, with marketings also seen falling. If confirmed, this would ease feed corn demand somewhat.

Across Asia, Chinese futures saw a mild uptick in soybean and soymeal prices, suggesting cautious optimism despite lower import volumes. Malaysian palm oil fell modestly overnight, indicating some softness in global vegetable oil markets.

The global market continues to navigate a complex mix of weather risks, shifting policies, and strong export flows, all of which keep futures markets in a state of heightened sensitivity and volatility.