Wheat

Wheat futures entered Tuesday on stronger footing after a solid start to the week. July 2025 CBOT wheat opened at $5.38½ per bushel, up 9½ cents from Monday’s close of $5.29. Support continues to build from strong export demand and improving momentum across the three major U.S. exchanges. Export inspections for the week ending May 15 totaled 423,785 metric tons, up 4.6% from the previous week and a sharp 85% above the same time last year. Japan and Mexico led demand, accounting for a combined 196,000 metric tons. Planting progress is also ahead of schedule, with 82% of spring wheat planted and 64% of winter wheat headed. However, crop conditions slightly declined, with the good-to-excellent rating down 2 percentage points to 52%.

Corn

Corn futures also trended higher to start Tuesday, with the July 2025 contract trading at $4.53 per bushel, up 5½ cents from Monday’s close of $4.47½. Monday’s rally was fueled by bullish sentiment and export strength. Weekly inspections showed 1.719 million metric tons of corn shipped, a 32% increase from the previous week. Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Colombia, and South Korea topped the destination list. U.S. corn planting progress reached 78%, ahead of both the 73% five-year average and last year’s 67%. Emergence also improved to 50%, up from the historical norm of 40%. Despite a backdrop of record global corn production expectations, weather uncertainties and shifting trade flows continue to influence market sentiment.

Soybeans

Soybeans started Tuesday trading with fractional changes, following modest gains the day before. July 2025 CBOT soybeans were priced at $10.51¼ per bushel, up ½ cent from Monday’s close of $10.50¾. Export inspections were subdued, totaling 217,842 metric tons, down more than 50% from the prior week but still 13% higher than a year ago. Mexico and Egypt were top buyers, while China again remained absent. Planting progress continued at an impressive pace, with 66% of the U.S. soybean crop already planted and 34% emerged—both well ahead of historical averages. However, declines in Chinese imports from Brazil and the U.S., driven by logistical disruptions and customs delays, have added new pressures to the oilseed market.

Key Global Developments Driving Today’s Grain Market

A single case of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), also known as mad cow disease, was confirmed on a farm in England. Though the case poses no food safety risk, it reinforces the effectiveness of the UK’s animal health surveillance system. Market participants are monitoring any potential repercussions on feed demand in Europe.

Argentina’s soybean harvest is facing major setbacks after severe storms swept through the northwestern Buenos Aires province. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 730,000 hectares are still unharvested, and the delay could cause significant losses. Heavy rainfall—up to 400 mm—has flooded roads and fields, exacerbating already slow harvest conditions. Additional rainfall is forecasted for the weekend, adding to concerns for global soybean meal and oil supplies from this key exporter.

In Brazil, the soy industry is holding steady despite ongoing weather and trade challenges. ABIOVE maintained its crushing forecast at 57.5 million tons, and raised soybean output slightly to 169.7 million tons. However, soybean export projections were trimmed to 108.2 million tons, citing logistical difficulties and slow international demand. Production of soymeal and soyoil remains unchanged at 44.1 and 11.45 million tons respectively, with soymeal exports holding firm at 23.6 million tons.

Chinese customs data revealed a sharp contraction in soybean imports from Brazil during April, down 22.2% year-on-year to 4.6 million tons. Imports from the U.S. also declined steeply, falling 43.7% to 1.38 million tons. Overall April soybean imports were the lowest since 2015, reflecting broader trade and logistic disruptions. Although year-to-date imports from the U.S. are up over 35%, concerns persist regarding China's future purchasing behavior.

The wheat market is finding balance between strong demand and steady supply expectations. The USDA projects global wheat production for 2025/26 to rise to 808.5 million tons, with consumption close behind at 807.99 million tons. This narrowing supply gap could reduce ending stocks for a sixth consecutive year. In Brazil, wheat acreage is projected to decline slightly, but production is forecast to rise by 1.4% to 8 million tons, supported by stable consumption and improved productivity.

In Russia, wheat export prices remained stable last week, despite weather issues and frost declarations in Belgorod and Voronezh. Analysts say damage is minimal compared to last year and unlikely to impact overall harvest forecasts. New crop wheat is priced lower, but demand remains consistent, especially from Algeria and Saudi Arabia. Sovecon estimates May wheat exports at around 1.8 million tons, reflecting steady global interest in Russian-origin supplies.

Weather continues to be a dominant factor shaping market behavior. In North America, cool and wet conditions persist across the Corn Belt, delaying fieldwork but improving soil moisture. Forecasts indicate below-normal temperatures and intermittent rainfall continuing through the weekend. The western Midwest and northern Plains are under particular scrutiny, given the summer outlook for extended dryness.

In contrast, Europe and Ukraine have benefited from timely rainfall in recent weeks, helping to alleviate earlier dryness. Conditions are expected to remain favorable through the end of May, which should support corn and wheat crop development. However, Poland remains abnormally dry, raising concerns about spring planting and early crop growth.

South America’s forecast remains dry, especially across Central Brazil and Argentina’s Pampas region. While dryness favors corn harvesting, it could impair development of late-season crops. With no significant rain in sight, analysts are closely monitoring potential reductions in yield projections if the dryness persists into June.

In Southeast Asia, widespread rains are expected to restore soil moisture in northern Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions. Meanwhile, South Asia braces for heavy flooding in parts of India, with rainfall totals expected to exceed 200 mm above normal in the next 10 days—posing potential challenges for early season crop planting.

Market optimism over U.S.-China trade relations remains cautious. While the pause in escalating tariffs has temporarily boosted sentiment, analysts note that a comprehensive agreement may take time. Trade experts recall the lengthy process that led to the Phase One deal, suggesting that resolution to current frictions will be gradual. For now, commodity futures are showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Brazil’s poultry export sector remains under pressure following a confirmed bird flu outbreak on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul. While three suspected cases have been ruled out, two remain under investigation on commercial farms. Under current trade protocols, nations like China, the EU, and South Korea may maintain or expand import bans. With Brazil supplying over 35% of the global chicken market, prolonged restrictions could reshape global feed demand patterns—especially for corn and soy.

Grain markets today are responding to a complex mix of bullish export flows, unpredictable weather, and global trade uncertainties. As planting continues at an accelerated pace in the U.S., attention shifts toward summer forecasts, crop condition updates, and evolving trade dialogues—factors that are likely to define the momentum in the days ahead.