Closing Summary – Thursday, May 15

Wheat posted a strong finish to Thursday’s trading session. The September 2025 CBOT contract closed at $5.46½, gaining 7½ cents on the day. The uptick followed a bullish USDA export report and the conclusion of the Hard Red Wheat Tour, which pegged Kansas yields at a four-year high. News of Saudi Arabia’s large wheat tender and an increased EU production estimate further supported the market.

Corn markets closed firm. The July 2025 contract ended the session at $4.48½, up 3 cents. Export activity exceeded expectations, with the week's bookings setting a 20-week high. Support also came from Brazil, where the national output forecast was raised by 2.14 MMT, mostly on gains from the second crop.

Soybeans faced a steep decline on Thursday. The July 2025 contract dropped 26½ cents, closing at $10.51¼. Losses were led by bean oil, which hit its daily 3-cent drop limit amid fears that EPA’s renewable volume obligation (RVO) proposal will fall short of industry expectations. Despite strong crush numbers, rising bean oil stocks and global sentiment weighed on the complex.

Key Developments Impacting Global Grain Markets

Export activity dominated Thursday’s headlines. USDA’s weekly report showed wheat sales totaling 804,782 MT, a nine-week high. Notably, 746,155 MT was for 2025/26, led by large orders from the Philippines and unknown destinations. For corn, old crop sales hit 1.677 MMT, more than double the same week in 2024. South Korea, Mexico, and Japan were major buyers. Soybean export sales were more subdued at 282,427 MT, but still 6.3% higher than last year.

The Hard Red Wheat Tour concluded with average yields in Kansas reported at 53 bushels per acre, exceeding USDA’s 50 bpa estimate. Kansas production is now projected at 338.5 million bushels, marking a four-year high. However, field scouts noted wheat streak mosaic virus presence in several fields, potentially capping gains in final yields.

Weather trends are shaping both current conditions and forward-looking sentiment. In the U.S., major storm systems delivered widespread rainfall across the Northern and Central Plains. This has helped ease drought stress, particularly in Nebraska and the Dakotas, but could slow spring planting in some areas. Cooler air and frost risks are expected this weekend in parts of the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies.

In South America, Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn output forecast to 126.9 MMT, largely due to a 1.9 MMT increase for the second crop. At the same time, corn ethanol consumption is surging. Abramilho estimates that 20 MMT of corn will go to ethanol this year, with expectations of doubling that use in the near term. Brazil’s government is also preparing to raise the ethanol blend mandate from 27% to 30%, and sorghum-based ethanol is gaining attention in Mato Grosso do Sul.

Argentina’s grains market is also seeing positive developments. The Rosario Exchange lifted its soybean production forecast to 48.5 MMT, supported by faster harvest progress and better-than-expected yields. The Buenos Aires Exchange is now projecting 7.2 million hectares of wheat planting, the largest area in 15 years, with winter wheat sowing set to begin in the coming weeks.

In China, corn planting is underway in the Northeast provinces under favorable moisture conditions. LSEG maintained its 2025/26 production forecast at 299.4 MMT, aided by a 0.5% increase in sown area and above-average spring rainfall. However, diverging summer outlooks raise questions: EC models forecast wet and warm weather, while CFS models see potential dryness and heat by late summer.

Russia’s grain exports fell sharply in April, with seaborne shipments dropping 61.3% year-on-year to 2.4 million tons. This decline followed February’s export quotas and ongoing poor weather. The Ministry of Agriculture now expects 2024/25 exports to fall 20%, with total volumes between 55–57 MMT. Black Sea and Caspian flows were most affected, but Baltic routes also saw a 31.5% decline.

Ukraine has held firm on its grain harvest forecast of 56 MMT despite drought and frost in southern regions. The agriculture ministry expressed cautious optimism, though consultancies like APK-Inform have revised projections down nearly 4%, citing up to 40% damage to winter wheat in some areas. The spring crop is 76% sown as of May 8, with final prospects hinging on June conditions.

On the biofuel side, the U.S. Department of Energy reported ethanol production at 0.993 million barrels per day, below market expectations. Stocks rose to 25.445 million barrels, a 1% weekly increase. Meanwhile, EPA data confirmed fewer blending credits were generated in April: 1.16 billion D6 credits compared to 1.21 billion in March. Biodiesel credits (D4) rose slightly to 592 million.

NOPA’s crush report offered mixed signals. April crush volumes hit 190.226 million bushels, above analyst estimates and 12.27% higher year-on-year. However, bean oil stocks reached 1.53 billion lbs, a 1.96% monthly increase, weighing on prices and dragging down soybean futures alongside weak demand signals.

Geopolitical risks resurfaced in Asia-Pacific talks. Japan’s largest farm lobby petitioned its government to reject any U.S. trade agreement that could threaten domestic agriculture. With President Trump advocating for more market access for U.S. rice, soybeans, and corn, Japan’s resistance may influence upcoming trade negotiations, particularly in the APEC context.

Looking ahead, global grain markets remain finely balanced. Export demand, weather volatility, policy updates, and evolving geopolitical tensions will continue to shape sentiment and price movement across wheat, corn, and soybean markets.