Opening Prices – Thursday, May 16 (Chicago, July 25 Contracts)
Wheat futures started Thursday with modest gains after a strong showing the previous day. July CBOT wheat opened at $5.28¼, rising 3½ cents from Wednesday’s close of $5.24¾. The market continues to digest strong crop tour yield results in Kansas and robust international demand signals, including tenders from Algeria and Saudi Arabia.
Corn opened Thursday’s session at $4.46¾, ticking up 1¼ cents from Wednesday’s close of $4.45½. Traders are weighing improved weather conditions for planted fields against the potential for delays in new planting due to upcoming widespread rains across key U.S. corn belts.
Soybeans reversed their midweek strength and opened significantly weaker Thursday morning. July soybeans dropped 13½ cents, starting the session at $10.64¼ after closing at $10.77¾ on Wednesday. The decline comes amid bearish sentiment in the soybean oil market, driven by weaker renewable volume obligation (RVO) outlooks and falling crude oil prices.
Key Global Movements Impacting Grain Markets
Export activity remains a central focus this week. USDA’s export sales report is expected to show modest activity: wheat bookings range from a potential net reduction to modest new sales; corn estimates are between 0.9 and 1.5 million metric tons for old crop, and soybeans are projected at 200,000 to 500,000 MT for old crop and similar for new crop. These data points are key indicators of global demand stability.
The Kansas wheat crop tour continues to drive optimism, with average yield results improving to 53.3 bushels per acre, well above last year’s 42.4 bpa. Final state-wide production estimates are expected Thursday. However, areas of Nebraska remain dry, prompting caution for hard red winter wheat conditions. While winter wheat shows strength, poor soil moisture in the Northern Plains continues to weigh on spring wheat expectations.
Algeria made headlines with a tender purchase of 660,000 MT of wheat, while Saudi Arabia issued a tender for 655,000 MT. These large international buys are seen as bullish signals for global wheat demand. Meanwhile, Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat production forecast by 1.7 MMT to 129.8 MMT, contributing to a mixed supply outlook.
Weather is playing a complex role across the Americas. In the U.S., a wet system is moving through the Northern and Central Plains with heavy rainfall expected in the Dakotas and Nebraska. While this could improve moisture conditions for some areas, it may also delay planting progress in others. Frost risks in parts of Canada and the Northern Plains are adding uncertainty to early spring wheat development.
In South America, Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn production forecast by 2.14 MMT to 126.9 MMT, driven by improved outlooks for the second crop. Brazilian corn ethanol production is booming, with expectations to double in the coming years. This surge is supported by government plans to increase ethanol blending requirements and to expand sorghum-based ethanol.
Argentina's soybean harvest is back on track after weather-related delays earlier in the season. The Rosario Exchange lifted its estimate for 2024/25 soybean production to 48.5 MMT. Meanwhile, the Buenos Aires Exchange forecasts a wheat planting area of 7.2 million hectares, the largest in 15 years, signaling confidence in long-term grain output.
China’s corn outlook is positive. The latest forecast puts 2025/26 production at 299.4 million tons, with spring planting underway and supported by favorable soil moisture. The summer outlook remains uncertain, with conflicting predictions: the EC model sees warm, wet conditions that would boost yields, while the CFS model suggests warm and dry risks.
Russia’s grain exports dropped sharply in April. Seaborne shipments were down over 61% year-on-year due to export quotas and poor weather, with Black Sea flows falling to 2.2 million tons. Overall, Russia’s 2024/25 grain exports are expected to decline 20% from last season’s record, tightening global wheat availability.
Ukraine maintains its 2025 grain forecast at 56 million tons despite a string of poor weather events, including frost and drought in southern regions. The agriculture ministry remains cautiously optimistic, but crop consultancies have revised expectations downward. Some forecasts now predict a 4% lower total harvest and over 7% decline in corn output compared to earlier projections.
The United States reported a decline in renewable fuel credits, suggesting reduced ethanol blending activity. April saw 1.16 billion D6 credits generated, down from 1.21 billion in March. This coincides with weaker ethanol production data from the EIA, which noted a dip below 1 million bpd for the first time since September, despite rising stocks and refiner inputs.
On the oilseed side, soybeans were hit by weaker bean oil markets amid regulatory delays and falling crude prices. Market participants expect RVO mandates to be set later than anticipated. NOPA’s upcoming crush report is likely to show a 5.1% monthly drop in soybean processing for April, though still up 9% compared to a year ago.
Lastly, geopolitical tensions in trade continue to simmer. Japan’s largest farm lobby urged the government to reject any new U.S. trade deals that could jeopardize domestic agriculture, particularly rice and soy imports. With trade negotiations ongoing and U.S. officials pressing for expanded access, market players are watching closely for shifts that could influence bilateral grain flows.
As the session progresses, traders will monitor export reports, weather developments, and policy announcements to gauge short-term direction and risk positioning across all grain markets.