Crop Recap: May 8, 2025 – Closing Prices (Chicago, July 25 Contracts)

Wheat

Wheat futures ended Thursday on a softer note, with Chicago SRW for July closing at $5.29¼, down 5 cents. Despite early overnight gains, pressure built through the day due to tepid export demand and technical weakness. Weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at just 69,659 MT for old crop, below expectations, though new crop sales reached a marketing-year high of nearly 493,000 MT, with strong interest from South Korea and unknown buyers. Ongoing rainfall in the U.S. Plains continues to bring mixed implications—helping to ease drought in parts of Kansas but delaying harvest preparation elsewhere.

Corn

Corn futures also drifted lower, with the July 25 contract closing at $4.47½, down 1¾ cents. Despite pressure from falling ethanol output and flat export prospects, the market managed to rebound from session lows. Old crop corn sales totaled a robust 1.662 million metric tons last week, a 19-week high. Key buyers included Japan, Taiwan, and Spain. Additional support came from private sales of 320,000 MT to Mexico and unknown destinations. Traders are cautiously eyeing Monday’s WASDE report, which is expected to revise U.S. old crop ending stocks slightly lower.

Soybeans

Soybeans rebounded after midday weakness, with July 25 contracts closing at $10.45, up 5¾ cents. Export sales for the week totaled 376,653 MT, with Mexico leading demand. A notable private sale of 225,000 MT to Pakistan boosted sentiment for the 2025/26 crop. While meal futures were modestly lower, soyoil futures rallied sharply. Traders responded positively to renewed buying interest despite subdued short-term demand from China and soft April crush data. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s soybean crop estimate to 50 MMT, further anchoring the supply outlook.

Global Drivers

Progress in U.S. soybean planting remains a bullish signal for the upcoming 2025/26 harvest. Total planted acreage is estimated at 84 million acres, slightly above earlier projections. Planting pace stands at 30%, significantly ahead of the five-year average. However, below-normal soil moisture in Illinois and parts of the western Soy Belt continues to pose a latent risk as heat builds toward June.

Corn planting is also progressing steadily, though demand concerns persist. Ethanol production fell to 1.02 million barrels/day last week, below analyst expectations, with stocks dropping to 25.191 million barrels. This comes amid the reintroduction of the bipartisan Ag BIO Act, aiming to boost long-term demand for corn-based bioproducts and U.S. biomanufacturing.

Wheat markets face continued headwinds. Export demand was weak this week, with old crop sales modest but new crop numbers showing promise. The upcoming WASDE is expected to show total U.S. wheat output at 1.885 billion bushels, with winter wheat accounting for 1.325 billion. SRW contracts remain under pressure, though shifts in open interest suggest a possible change in market structure.

Brazil’s soybean exports for May are projected to fall to 12.6 million tons from April’s record pace, according to ANEC. High inventories in China and uncertainty around trade relations with the U.S. are slowing purchases. Nonetheless, cumulative exports from Brazil remain historically strong, with the potential for a rebound later in the year.

Canada’s rapeseed production is expected to rise to 18.2 million tons despite a 3.5% reduction in planted area. Shifts toward wheat and spring crops reflect concerns over rapeseed’s input costs and competitive returns. Soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba remains at six-year lows, threatening yield potential.

Canada’s wheat production is projected to rise 4.5% year-on-year to 36.5 million tons. This increase is driven by area expansion and expected yield recovery after last year’s poor season. Still, dry weather forecasts across the southern Prairies raise questions about final output potential.

Weather across key growing regions is mixed. The Central and Southern U.S. Plains are experiencing waves of showers that both relieve drought and cause flooding. Meanwhile, the Northern Plains are entering a dry stretch that could stress wheat and early corn. The Midwest remains mostly dry, which is helping planting progress but could become problematic if rains stay limited.

In China, rainfall across the North China Plain is benefiting wheat in critical growth stages and supporting early corn and soybean emergence. However, projections for future precipitation are uncertain, raising potential crop stress risks if dryness returns in the coming weeks.

Black Sea conditions are improving thanks to multiple weather disturbances delivering much-needed rain to dry areas in southern Russia and eastern Ukraine. Colder air from the northwest is slowing development but poses no frost risk at this stage. Moisture recovery remains the key theme for this region.

Argentina’s weather continues to challenge harvest activity. Frequent showers have slowed soybean collection, which is only 25% complete. However, these rains are improving soil moisture for wheat planting, which is just getting underway. Drier conditions expected over the weekend could briefly aid harvest efforts.

In Southeast Asia, Malaysian palm oil prices rose 1.96% overnight to 3,801 ringgit amid improved sentiment. Yet high inventories and weak global demand cap upside potential. Soyoil’s monthly price loss of 1.67 points is still weighing on global vegetable oil markets.

Geopolitical developments remain a wildcard. A key U.S.-China agricultural meeting is set for this weekend in Geneva, raising hopes for improved trade flows. Additionally, Japan’s Zen-Noh cooperative has opened a trading hub in Geneva to secure grain sourcing, reflecting growing strategic planning in Asian commodity markets.