Market Overview by Crop

Wheat

Wheat futures managed to hold onto gains through Tuesday’s session, as weather dynamics and crop progress lent support. Chicago SRW contracts rose by 4 to 5 cents, closing at $5.36. Kansas City HRW was similarly higher, and Minneapolis spring wheat added 1 to 2 cents. Conditions for U.S. winter wheat remained stable at 51% good/excellent, while spring wheat planting was slightly delayed in Minnesota but ahead in other states. Regionally, some yield concerns remain, especially in Kansas and Nebraska, though improvements were noted in Colorado and Illinois. Export momentum remains mixed: while U.S. March wheat exports slightly increased over February, they remain significantly below last year’s levels. EU soft wheat exports are also lagging, down over 9 million tons from the previous season.

Corn

Corn futures closed modestly higher for nearby contracts, adding 1¼ cents to end at $4.55½, supported by strong March export data and overseas buying. The Census reported corn exports of 7.34 million metric tons for March—up nearly 22% from February. Despite this, crop progress reveals some delays in key states like Illinois, Kentucky, and North Carolina, all trailing their average planting pace. South Korea’s importers added bullish sentiment with overnight purchases totaling 332,000 metric tons. Domestically, ethanol exports reached a 7-year high at nearly 196 million gallons, offering added demand-side support.

Soybeans

Soybean prices came under slight pressure on Tuesday, declining 4¼ cents to close at $10.41¼. USDA reported that planting progress hit 30%, ahead of schedule, with Illinois being the only lagging state. Export data from the Census showed March soybean exports reaching 3.498 million metric tons—the fourth-highest total for the month since 1967. Soymeal and soyoil both saw further weakness, with meal futures down $2.60/ton and soyoil slipping another 3 to 39 points. Brazilian analysts forecast a 500,000-hectare expansion in soybean area for the 2025/26 season, a long-term bearish signal if realized.

Key Global Market Influencers

The U.S. spring planting campaign is gaining traction, with farmers pushing ahead thanks to cooperative weather. Corn planting reached 40%, soybeans hit 30%, and spring wheat advanced to 44%, all ahead of seasonal averages. However, state-level progress is uneven: Illinois, Kentucky, and North Carolina are notably behind, reminding traders that localized delays could still factor into overall yield potential.

Weather remains a double-edged sword. While dry conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt are ideal for seeding, prolonged dryness could introduce moisture deficits later in the season. The Southern Plains are beginning to dry out after recent rainfall, but parts of the southeast could see heavier precipitation that may affect fieldwork.

In South America, Brazil’s weather outlook remains a crucial watchpoint. Central regions received some final rains, which likely marked the end of meaningful moisture for the season. Forecasts now show no rain through at least May 20, increasing concern for later-stage crops. Yet, optimism persists, with the second corn crop seen at 107.2 million tons, part of a newly raised national forecast of 135.4 million tons. Ethanol mills are expected to support prices, providing a domestic demand cushion.

Argentina is experiencing a shift in its weather cycle. Scattered showers in key regions like Cordoba and Buenos Aires earlier this week are giving way to dry and warm conditions, which could benefit harvest progress but also add heat stress if extended. Export capacity, however, is facing bigger challenges: two vessels grounded in the Parana River are still disrupting navigation routes, forcing reduced draft levels and slowing grain shipments from the Rosario export hub.

On the demand side, U.S. export data for March shows divergent trends. Corn exports surged nearly 25% year-on-year to 7.34 million tons — a bullish signal supported further by ethanol exports reaching a 7-year high. Soybean shipments rose as well, up 14.5% from last year, making it the fourth-largest March on record. Soymeal and soyoil exports also set notable highs, reflecting strong feed and oil demand.

Conversely, wheat exports remain sluggish. At 1.799 million tons in March, U.S. wheat exports rose only slightly from February and remain 14% lower than a year ago. EU soft wheat exports also tell a cautionary story — at 17.81 million tons, they trail last year’s pace by a steep 9.17 million. This suggests an ongoing demand shift away from traditional suppliers, possibly due to rising Black Sea competition.

Indeed, the Black Sea region continues to expand its dominance. Russia’s IKAR revised its wheat forecast upward to 83.8 million metric tons, with exports now expected to hit 41.3 million. The implication is clear: global buyers will have plentiful access to competitively priced Russian wheat, challenging North and South American suppliers.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, wheat prices surged in April across all major states, hitting 12-month highs on tight supply. Yet trading remained light, with producers focused on the field and buyers still well-covered. By early May, prices had started to edge down slightly, and imports in April lagged behind last year’s figures. Export volumes are also weaker, underlining a cautious demand outlook.

China’s domestic futures prices softened further on Tuesday, including a 7-yuan decline in soybeans and a 2-yuan drop in corn. These moves reflect broader macro pressure and could weigh on U.S. export competitiveness if the trend persists. The North China Plain is warming rapidly, however, which should support spring crop planting and could eventually ease China’s reliance on imports.

Vegetable oil markets remain volatile. Malaysian palm oil lost another 0.81% to close at 3,796 ringgit, pressured by weakening global demand and economic uncertainty. Soyoil futures fell again in the U.S. and China, adding downside pressure across the broader oilseed complex.