Wheat – Jul 25 CBOT Wheat: $5.31 (+¼ cent)

Wheat ended Thursday on a firmer note after a choppy session, with the July Chicago SRW contract closing up ¼ cent at $5.31. Kansas City HRW lost 2 to 3 cents, while May ended slightly higher. Minneapolis spring wheat also saw mild declines across most contracts. The market was supported by export sales data showing 75,005 metric tons of old crop wheat sales—up from the previous week’s net reductions. New crop sales came in at 238,300 MT, within expectations. Rain across key HRW and SRW areas is enhancing soil moisture but limiting field activity, keeping prices range-bound.

Corn – Jul 25 Corn: $4.72 ¼ (–3 ¼ cents)

Corn futures slipped on Thursday, with the July contract down 3 ¼ cents to $4.72 ¼. Weekly export sales hit 1.014 million metric tons, down from recent weeks but still 33.7% higher than the same period last year. Mexico was the top buyer. New crop sales added 244,704 MT, the second-largest of the season. Ethanol data showed 454.2 million bushels of corn crushed in March, down 3.8% year-over-year but up from February. Despite firm international interest, broader concerns around biofuel demand and slow harvest momentum in Argentina pressured corn prices.

Soybeans – Jul 25 Soybeans: $10.50 ¼ (+5 ¾ cents)

Soybeans rebounded Thursday, with the July contract rising 5 ¾ cents to $10.50 ¼. Soymeal futures weakened, while soyoil bounced by 60 to 80 points. Cash soybean prices climbed 8 ¾ cents nationally to $9.97 ¾. USDA reported old crop sales of 428,227 MT, a 55% weekly increase. China accounted for nearly one-third of sales. New crop sales were modest at 50,000 MT. Soymeal exports hit an 11-week high, while soybean oil sales were at an 11-week low. Argentina’s harvest is now 24% complete, a 9-point weekly increase, though still behind last year’s pace of 36%.

Key Global Developments Driving Market Sentiment

Ukraine’s grain exports fell 60% year-on-year in April to 2.27 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture cited reduced carryover stocks and smaller harvests due to war disruptions. Wheat exports declined by 56% and corn by 61%, sharply tightening regional supply expectations.

Argentine soybean farmers recorded their biggest sales day of 2025 on Tuesday, unloading 230,000 MT. Despite the milestone, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the soybean harvest at only 23.6% complete—well behind last year’s 36%. Dry weather aided progress but raised concerns about early wheat planting conditions.

SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025–26 wheat export forecast to 39.7 million tons, citing improved short-term crop conditions. However, risks remain due to regional drought and cold snaps that could hamper output in southern areas.

India has already purchased 25.6 million tons of wheat from domestic growers this season, compared to 20.5 million tons last year. Officials aim to reach 31.2 million tons to reinforce domestic stocks and curb food price inflation.

Turkey announced a temporary zero-tariff quota for 1 million tons of corn imports through July 31. The measure aims to support domestic feed supply and stabilize prices. Once the quota expires, a steep 130% duty will return.

U.S. soybean oil use for biofuel fell sharply to 576 million pounds in February—a 33% year-over-year drop and the lowest since February 2021. The decline continues to pressure global vegetable oil markets already coping with weak Chinese demand.

DOE data showed ethanol production rose to 1.04 million barrels/day, while inventories fell to 25.39 million barrels—the lowest since January. Exports climbed to 141,000 barrels/day. These factors lent only mild support to corn, as demand concerns lingered.

Brazil’s port infrastructure is undergoing major expansion. Cargill, BTG Pactual, and the Louis Dreyfus–Amaggi consortium won bids to operate three terminals at Paranagua, planning to boost export capacity by nearly 5 million tons annually. Total investments are expected to exceed $423 million.

Kazakhstan exported 7.5 million tons of grain since September, up 60% from last year. Exports to Iran rose 16-fold, while shipments to Azerbaijan surged more than 100 times, driven by stronger demand and improved logistics.

In the U.S., widespread rains continued across Kansas and Texas, improving moisture conditions but delaying fieldwork. The eastern Midwest remained drier, helping planting progress. The Mississippi River south of Memphis remains flooded, disrupting logistics.

In South America, Brazil’s rainy season is ending on time, maintaining favorable conditions for winter wheat sowing. Argentina’s mostly dry weather accelerated corn and soybean harvests, though some areas are now too dry for winter wheat planting.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left corn and soybean production forecasts unchanged, reflecting confidence in yields. However, rain expected next week in northern Argentina could improve conditions for early wheat sowing.