Wheat – $5.33 ½ (+2 ¾ cents)

Wheat markets started Thursday’s session with renewed optimism after recovering midweek. The July 25 Chicago SRW contract opened at $5.33 ½, building on Wednesday’s 5 ¼ cent gain. Short-term momentum was supported by moderate rainfall across the Southern Plains, which is improving moisture levels despite slowing fieldwork. Kansas City HRW posted slight losses, while Minneapolis spring wheat rose more firmly. USDA export sales due later today are expected to show mixed results—ranging from reductions to moderate increases in old crop volumes, and between 100,000 to 400,000 metric tons for new crop sales. Although EU wheat exports continue to struggle, Russia’s upward revision of its export forecast and ongoing tight global supplies lent additional support to early trading.

Corn – $4.64 ¼ (+3 ¾ cents)

Corn futures began Thursday’s session with upward momentum, as the July 25 contract opened at $4.64 ¼, up nearly 4 cents. Traders were encouraged by ethanol data showing increased production and lower stocks, alongside confirmed export activity. USDA reported a 120,000 MT private sale to an unknown destination, and Turkey announced a temporary tariff-free import quota of 1 million tons. Meanwhile, expectations for today’s export sales report range between 700,000 to 1.5 million metric tons of old crop and up to 200,000 for new crop. Ethanol production rose to 1.04 million barrels per day, while corn usage for ethanol in March is projected to be 2.6% lower year-over-year.

Soybeans – $10.43 (–1 ½ cents)

Soybeans opened under pressure on Thursday, with the July 25 contract down 1 ½ cents after Wednesday’s 8 ¼ cent decline. Weak biodiesel demand, reduced soybean oil consumption, and strong Brazilian export competition continue to drag on sentiment. Despite Argentina’s farmers achieving the largest single-day sale of the year at 230,000 MT, U.S. cash prices fell 7 ¼ cents nationally to $9.88. Traders anticipate today’s USDA export sales report to show 150,000–600,000 MT of old crop sales. Soybean oil deliveries reached 164 contracts overnight, while meal and oil futures remained in decline.

Global Developments Shaping Today’s Grain Market

Ukraine reported a 60% year-over-year drop in April grain exports, totaling just 2.27 million metric tons. Wheat exports fell by 56% and corn by 61%, with analysts citing a smaller harvest and reduced carryover stocks due to the ongoing war.

Argentina’s farmers sold 230,000 MT of soybeans on Tuesday, marking the biggest single-day volume of 2025 so far. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained current production estimates, with soybean harvest progress climbing to 23.6% from 14.5% the prior week thanks to favorable dry weather.

Russia’s wheat export outlook remains optimistic, with SovEcon raising its projection to 39.7 million tons for the 2025–26 season. Despite improvements, analysts continue to monitor drought conditions and the threat of cold snaps in the country’s southern regions.

India’s government has procured 25.6 million metric tons of new-season wheat, up from 20.5 million tons last year. The aim is to reach 31.2 million tons to stabilize domestic supply and support food security amid price volatility.

Turkey introduced a zero-tariff corn import quota of 1 million tons effective until July 31 to combat high prices and weak internal production. Once expired, the import duty will return to 130%, with the quota designed to ensure feedstock availability in poultry and red meat sectors.

Soybean oil usage for U.S. biofuel production dropped to 576 million pounds in February—the lowest since February 2021 and a 33% decline year-over-year. The trend continues to put pressure on the global vegetable oil complex, especially given reduced Chinese demand.

U.S. Department of Energy data showed ethanol inventories fell to 25.389 million barrels, the lowest level since January, while production increased slightly to 1.04 million barrels per day. Export volumes surged to 141,000 barrels per day, balancing the slight dip in domestic refinery inputs.

Brazilian port infrastructure is expanding following a major auction at Paranagua. Cargill, BTG Pactual, and a Louis Dreyfus–Amaggi consortium secured control over three terminals, with investments expected to increase bulk shipment capacity by nearly 5 million tons annually.

Kazakhstan continues to boost its grain exports, having shipped 7.5 million tons since September—a 60% increase over last year. Trade with Iran rose 16-fold, while exports to Azerbaijan soared more than 100 times, driven by improved logistics and regional demand shifts.

In the U.S., rainfall patterns are shaping planting conditions. Heavy showers in Texas and Kansas are improving soil moisture, but fieldwork delays persist. Meanwhile, the eastern Midwest may benefit from drier conditions in the coming days, helping planting progress.

In Brazil, the rainy season is ending on schedule, with continued moisture supporting winter wheat sowing. In Argentina, mostly dry conditions are accelerating corn and soybean harvesting, though some regions are becoming too dry for early wheat establishment.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept production forecasts for corn and soybeans unchanged, citing steady harvest progress. However, upcoming rains in northern Argentina could help replenish soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting.