Wheat – Jul 25 CBOT Wheat: $5.30 ¾ (+5 ¼ cents)

Wheat prices rebounded midweek, with Chicago SRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts posting moderate gains, while Kansas City HRW slipped slightly. Chicago SRW ended the session up 5 ¼ cents. The bounce was supported by forecasted rainfall across key growing areas in the Southern Plains, which, while beneficial for crop development, may delay fieldwork. Traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s weekly export sales report, with expectations ranging from reductions to slight gains in old crop volumes. The EU continues to show lackluster export performance, while Russia raised its forecast again amid a better harvest outlook.

Corn – Jul 25 Corn: $4.75 ½ (+5 ¼ cents)

Corn futures ended the day higher after a tough start to the week, with contracts gaining 1 to 6 ¾ cents on Wednesday. USDA announced a 120,000 MT export sale to an unknown destination, which helped trigger the rally. The ethanol report from EIA showed improved production—up 7,000 barrels/day to 1.04 million—and declining stocks, both offering support. However, traders are still pricing in weaker ethanol corn usage, projected down 2.6% year-over-year for March. Export sales figures today are expected to show between 0.7 and 1.5 million MT of old crop sales.

Soybeans – Jul 25 Soybeans: $10.44 ½ (–8 ¼ cents)

Soybean futures declined for a second session, with contracts down 6 to 9 cents. The national cash price slipped by 7 ¼ cents to $9.88. The pressure came amid reduced biodiesel feedstock data and weak Argentine sales, combined with expectations of increased Brazilian exports. Soymeal and soyoil also fell, dragging the complex lower. Despite planting progress continuing ahead of schedule, analysts expect the USDA to report moderate to low export sales later today, keeping momentum soft.

Global Developments Shaping Grain Markets

Argentina’s soybean sales pace hit a decade low, with only 24% of the crop sold as of April 23, despite eased currency controls. Heavy rains delayed harvests, and ongoing financial instability continues to weigh on farmer confidence.

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat export forecast for 2025–26 to 39.7 million tons, citing improved crop prospects. However, exporters still face negative margins and slow demand due to a buyer shift toward new-crop contracts.

EU soft wheat exports fell 34% year-on-year to 17.5 million tons, with Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria remaining the top buyers. Barley exports also slipped 21%, while corn imports rose 11%.

Northern China’s wheat belt is experiencing worsening drought conditions with no significant rainfall forecast, prompting full-scale drought relief measures. Officials warned the situation is severe as wheat nears key growth phases.

In Brazil, April soybean exports were revised down to 13.8 million tons, and soymeal to 2.1 million, both below last week's forecasts. The wet season is ending on time, with soil moisture still favorable for winter wheat planting in May.

Southern U.S. Plains are bracing for multiple rounds of heavy rain, especially in Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Accumulations are forecast up to 6 inches, which will improve soil moisture but delay spring planting.

EIA data showed a mild rebound in ethanol production and a drawdown in stockpiles, though total corn use for ethanol is projected to be 2.6% lower year-on-year, reinforcing weaker demand trends for corn.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose to 1.087 million tons in April, up 3.6% month-over-month. However, this increase comes alongside a continued decline in soyoil prices and weak Chinese demand, dampening global vegetable oil sentiment.

Kazakhstan has exported 7.5 million tons of grain since September, a 60% increase year-over-year. Exports to Iran surged 16-fold, and shipments to Azerbaijan skyrocketed over 100 times compared to the previous year.

Mexico launched PROSEBIEN, a state-owned firm focused on boosting domestic production of certified seeds for beans and rice. The initiative aims to improve food security and reduce dependence on imports by 2030.

China is advancing efforts to reduce grain use in livestock feed by expanding alternative protein sources such as kitchen waste and insect meal. The goal is to cut soybean meal use in feed to 10% by 2030, reshaping long-term global soybean demand.

The USDA announced it will transition its archival crop and livestock data from Cornell’s Mann Library to an internal system, aiming to modernize access. The Mann Library has hosted critical grain reports like WASDE for over 50 years.