Wheat

Wheat prices remained under pressure throughout Tuesday's session. Chicago SRW contracts for May 25 ended down 9 ¾ cents at $5.05 ¾, continuing their losing streak. Kansas City HRW futures slipped 8 to 9 cents, while MPLS spring wheat was off by 3 to 5 cents. Despite a rebound in crop condition ratings — with 49% of winter wheat now rated good to excellent — trade sentiment remained negative. Spring wheat planting stood at 30%, ahead of the 5-year average but behind expectations. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports remain far below last year’s levels, and uncertainty around Russia’s production added to volatility.

Corn

Corn futures led the downside move Tuesday, with the May 25 contract dropping 15 cents to $4.60 ½. A mix of active export sales and favorable planting conditions failed to lift prices. The USDA confirmed a private sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Spain, and new buying came from Taiwan and South Korea. Still, weakness in ethanol production outlook and planting progress (24% complete nationwide) kept sentiment muted. The national average cash price fell by 13 ¼ cents to $4.36 ¼.

Soybeans

Soybean futures also fell on Tuesday, with the May 25 contract closing 11 cents lower at $10.41. Soymeal futures posted a mild gain, but soy oil dragged the complex down. The USDA reported a private sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. U.S. soybean planting progress reached 18%, ahead of the five-year average, yet the market responded negatively to increased Brazilian shipments to China and ongoing trade pressures. Argentina’s farmers continue holding back sales amid currency uncertainty.

Key Global Developments Impacting the Grain Market

China’s soybean imports from Brazil are surging. Around 40 vessels are expected at Zhoushan port in April — a 48% increase year-over-year — signaling China’s accelerated shift away from U.S. suppliers amid ongoing trade conflict. Imports are expected to total 700,000 metric tons this month.

USDA export inspections showed solid numbers last week: 1.655 million tons of corn, 439,000 tons of soybeans, and 647,000 tons of wheat were inspected. Mexico remained the largest buyer of corn, China took nearly half of all soybeans shipped, and South Korea led wheat destinations.

In Brazil, dryness persists across most regions, favoring the ongoing soybean and first-crop corn harvest but raising concerns over second-crop corn development. Southern Brazil could see harvest-friendly conditions, but continued dryness may cap yields.

Argentina faces patchy wet spells in the Pampas and Northeast regions, which may delay soybean and corn harvesting. Warm weather is forecast to persist for another week before a shift to cooler temperatures.

U.S. weather patterns show varied effects: the Northern Plains and Midwest received widespread rainfall, bringing both drought relief and planting delays. More systems are expected later this week, especially in the central and southern Corn Belt.

In the Central and Southern Plains, rainfall is easing drought conditions and supporting winter wheat, though saturated fields may slow planting progress. Some regions, including Kansas and Texas, reported strong improvement in wheat conditions.

The Mississippi Delta continues to struggle with wet field conditions and flooding south of Memphis. Additional storms are forecast this week, which could further hinder fieldwork and crop logistics.

Europe is transitioning from a warm phase to a cooler period, especially in Northern Europe. Drier-than-normal conditions in the northeast remain a concern, although rainfall is expected in eastern areas, which could benefit dry farmland.

The Black Sea region remains notably dry, with limited soil moisture affecting the development of wheat and corn crops. Some rain is forecast this weekend, but persistent dryness threatens yield potential.

Russia is experiencing an abrupt cold snap at a critical point in wheat development. Forecasts show overnight lows below freezing in key growing areas, potentially damaging crops and adding pressure to already reduced harvest expectations for the 2025–26 season.

The Trump administration announced an emergency EPA waiver to allow nationwide sales of E15 (15% ethanol gasoline) this summer, citing benefits for energy independence and agriculture. Ethanol advocates welcomed the decision, though corn markets saw only a mild response.

CME Group is preparing to launch a new Black Sea wheat futures contract in May, focused on Romanian and Bulgarian ports. This comes as traders seek alternatives to the suspended Russian wheat benchmark following the Ukraine invasion. The new contract could provide more stability and transparency for regional grain trade.